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View Full Version : OT - Oil vs. Grain



davidfe
10-15-2009, 09:09 AM
http://bitsandpieces.us/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/imagesoil_20vs_20grain.jpg

Think of the impact to the worldwide recession. Would return
the funds to the farmers etc.

GREAT

Scishopguy
10-15-2009, 11:09 AM
david...I agree with this but I am a realist. The poor farmers would not get much benefit as the middle man would hog up any profit and make excuses why the cost of doing business was to blame. Now, if we could have a system where the farmers marketed direct to the retailers we might get a fair shake for the farmer.

Evan
10-15-2009, 12:01 PM
What is the point of this post? That sign is ancient history. Oil closed at just over $75 yesterday for the top grade, not $128 for Iraq medium Basrah Light which is even cheaper than Arab Medium Sour.

Meanwhile, grain prices are up and climbing fast.

camdigger
10-15-2009, 01:10 PM
What is the point of this post? That sign is ancient history. Oil closed at just over $75 yesterday for the top grade, not $128 for Iraq medium Basrah Light which is even cheaper than Arab Medium Sour.

Meanwhile, grain prices are up and climbing fast.

You'd rather talk about your conversations with the little animals around your hacienda at Williams Lake Evan? :rolleyes: http://bbs.homeshopmachinist.net/showthread.php?t=37095

John Stevenson
10-15-2009, 01:29 PM
You'd rather talk about your conversations with the little animals around your hacienda at Williams Lake Evan? :rolleyes: http://bbs.homeshopmachinist.net/showthread.php?t=37095

No he's moved on from that, the talking dog is now teaching the crow.

.

Evan
10-15-2009, 04:25 PM
My post was topical. This isn't. It would have been a little over a year ago but things have changed rather a lot. However, the price of oil is going up. I think I will buy a new truck.

Of course you are pure as driven snow...


Todays news [ no joke ]

At least 50 people have been killed and thousands more evacuated as floods caused by heavy rain brought chaos to the Philippines, officials say.
At least one town is...

Peter N
10-15-2009, 04:44 PM
Think of the impact to the worldwide recession. Would return
the funds to the farmers etc.

GREAT

Great?

OK, let's charge all the Texans $128/bushel for grain too, after all West Texas Intermediate traded at the same price at the same time...:rolleyes:

WTI price 1996-2009:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c7/WTI_price_96_09.svg/621px-WTI_price_96_09.svg.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:WTI_price_96_09.svg

Jeez - sometimes you guys can't see beyond the ends of your noses. It's a worldwide market that sets these prices, not some poor country that was invaded for Shrubs personal agenda.

Peter

gmatov
10-16-2009, 02:29 AM
That sign's about 8 miles down the road from me. I pass it often, and I usually think the guy must be the RNC Chairman for our area.

He hates everything that has happened since the Dems came into office, and I think that must include when they took the House in Fall '06, else they wouldn't have posted such while GW was still in Office.

Sign changes on a regular basis. Now, I think, they are condemning giving them who won't/can't buy Health Insurance as moochers.I'd take a pic and post the weeklies but don't think they need the exposure.

Cheers,

George

BTW, that price was for East Texas Sweet Crude. All that sour stuff we import is cheaper. I had/may still have, a mag with an article and map of the world and the price of crude from each area. Brent/North Sea is some of the sourest crude, price is considerably lower. After the platform is installed, might cost 5 bucks a barrel to lift, so much to ship, Exxon, Shell, BP, etc., make lots of money on the crude and MUCH more for refining into finished product and selling it.

Final return is probably more than a thou per barrel. Even the garbage, the asphalt, and the sulphur are high priced products.

camdigger
10-16-2009, 11:04 AM
Even the garbage, the asphalt, and the sulphur are high priced products.

Can you point me toward the high price for sulphur? The last sulphur my client shipped from central Alberta netted a loss of 15$ USD/Ton.

Evan
10-16-2009, 12:15 PM
http://ixian.ca/pics6/sulphur.jpg

camdigger
10-16-2009, 01:39 PM
WOW you really don't understand Evan....:eek:

NO-ONE sells to the ERCB. They regulate the industry and make reports they are NOT a buyer. Your info is useless. I asked for a buyer, not a market survey.

Why was sulphur high for the month of July? 2 reasons... 1.) Gas producers, tired of losing money on gas production, shut in sour wells with high op costs (reported to be on the order of $3.80/mcf in some cases) creating a short term blip on sulphur pricing. Let's see.. with gas at $2.15/mcf and costs at $3.80 that's a loss of $1.65/mcf... Most of the sulphur here comes from sour gas not oil. 2.) Sulphur is a fertilizer input, the growing season in North America is such that fertilizer is in demand April - October at best.

Why haven't they opened the wells back up when gas has recently gone above $4.00/mcf? Producers need confidence it will stay up long enough to pay out the reactivation of shut in wells - the last sour suspension we did cost over 6 figures. Reactivation is expected to be as expensive. How many mcf will it take at $0.20 profit to pay for a $100,000 operation? How long to pay out at, say 7mmcf/day? The storage is still full to over capacity - supply and demand says the price is too high right now. Gas is expected to stay low in Western Canada because of the vast amount of shut in gas sitting in places like Dawson Creek`s Montney play, Fort Nelson`s Horn River basin, and the deep hot sour pools along the Rocky Mountain Foothills presently shut in due to poor economics...

Why isn`t $82.75 a ton for sulphur enough? That`s a gross price not NET - doesn`t include mundane items like marketing costs and shipping...:rolleyes:

radkins
10-16-2009, 01:58 PM
The idea behind the sign is totally ridiculous, raise the price of grain to $128 and they would immediately raise the price of oil to $1028 a barrel! It's a no-win situation as long as we keep wasting oil at the rate we do since the price will ALWAYS be driven by market demand and as long as demand remains high so will prices. We can accuse the middle man, the big oil companies and the greedy oil producers all we want, and they are as guilty as we say they are, but the real greed behind the high prices is our greedy consumption of this dwindling and very precious resource. What is the real problem? Is it the Arabs or the big oil companies or is it that big 4X4 3 ton gas guzzling SUV parked in the driveway that spends 90% of it's time carrying one or two passengers 99.99% of the time on dry pavement! Look around at any intersection and the real problem is readily apparent, herds of gas guzzlers carrying one or two people, THAT'S the problem! Drive a more sensible vehicle, and I don't mean a cracker box or a hybrid, and the problem is solved for many years. When the demand for oil falls the price of oil falls and until we put the blame where it really belongs we are doomed to be at the mercy of the Arab oil cartels and their high prices.

ckelloug
10-16-2009, 02:32 PM
I heard somewhere that the U.S. Federal government is the single largest user of oil in the U.S. I couldn't find a source to verify this though. If anybody has a source, I'd be interested.

If it is true, I think it has a lot of implications about the stupid things we will do in the future to get oil. It also says to me that civilian conservation efforts might not make as much difference as we think. From my perspective as an engineer, I think there's no way to improve our national security or our economy without leveraging our technology to use much less imported oil.

--Cameron

kendall
10-16-2009, 03:16 PM
Actually don't think it's so much that people -want- gas guzzlers, it's just that for many people large vehicles are the only way to get a comfortable ride.

Most newer cars are a pain to get in and out of. I'm only 5'6", very flexible and slim with a 28" waist, (I actually wear a 29 because I have thick bicycle legs) so if I have problems getting in and out there's something wrong with the design. Most do not have good sightlines, trying to see through the rear or side windows is almost impossible. (may be different for taller people, mostly due to a high trunk, and high seat backs)

These and other reasons are why I drive a ranger, or my current explorer. They're easier to get in and out of, and sightlines are perfect. (the Explorer is stripped of everything behind the front seats so it's actually more convenient than a ranger with a cap)

Incidentally, I can count on getting 23mpg in the explorer on the highway, and made over 26 on stretches during trip to richmond and back two months ago (4.0, 5spd manual, 3.73 gears, 235/75/15 tires, nothing special about it)

Ken.

Evan
10-16-2009, 04:03 PM
NO-ONE sells to the ERCB. They regulate the industry and make reports they are NOT a buyer. Your info is useless. I asked for a buyer, not a market survey.


You are up to your eyes in brown stuff. That isn't my info either. I won't give you my info since I have to pay for it. I make money in this business. You just talk about it. I'm up by 24% so far this year and didn't lose a dime when it collapsed last year. Your friend made a bad deal and couldn't get out of it.

camdigger
10-16-2009, 04:26 PM
You are up to your eyes in brown stuff. That isn't my info either. I won't give you my info since I have to pay for it. I make money in this business. You just talk about it. I'm up by 24% so far this year and didn't lose a dime when it collapsed last year. Your friend made a bad deal and couldn't get out of it.


SIGH,

Apples and oranges Evan..... You really don't know and don't care what I do for a living, thankfully, I do.... It shows every time you get into one of these wrangles...

FWIW, I'm up over 100% this year and lost a total of $4000 in the collapse. Has nothing at all to do with commodity marketing. Has nothing to do with the topic at hand. There's more than just my "friends" doing this. The Montney and Horn River plays involve the largest Canadian companies out side the oilsands, big money in now for hopefully, big money out later.... The whole situation is wayyyy more complicated than has been laid out here... But then Google doesn't explain it all, so it can't understood by all and sundry....

Willy
10-16-2009, 05:01 PM
That sign's about 8 miles down the road from me. I pass it often, and I usually think the guy must be the RNC Chairman for our area.

He hates everything that has happened since the Dems came into office, and I think that must include when they took the House in Fall '06, else they wouldn't have posted such while GW was still in Office.


Boy I'll say.
His legs must be in pretty good shape from going up and down that ladder every time he has a mood swing!

He's definitely opinionated! (http://images.google.ca/images?hl=en&source=hp&q=casa%20d'ice%20sign&rlz=1R2GPEA_en&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wi)

Evan
10-16-2009, 05:14 PM
But then Google doesn't explain it all, so it can't understood by all and sundry....


Of course not. Why would anybody use Google to try and find information that isn't available free online? Your problem is that you only see what is happening in Alberta and think the whole world works like that. It doesn't. For instance, the true trading price of sulphur isn't available online. Many deals are private deals and the trading price is not disclosed. Unless you have access to brokerage house historicals, reports and trends you can't determine what has really happened in the entire market.

Up 100%? Pretty good. I have to be a lot more conservative with my money. We are living on it.

radkins
10-16-2009, 05:39 PM
some poor country that was invaded for [Shrubs] personal agenda.Peter



I was bit confused as to what (or who) you were talking about when I first read that and then suddenly it hit me!!

Hilarious! :D

camdigger
10-16-2009, 09:13 PM
Of course not. Why would anybody use Google to try and find information that isn't available free online? Your problem is that you only see what is happening in Alberta and think the whole world works like that. It doesn't. For instance, the true trading price of sulphur isn't available online. Many deals are private deals and the trading price is not disclosed. Unless you have access to brokerage house historicals, reports and trends you can't determine what has really happened in the entire market.

Up 100%? Pretty good. I have to be a lot more conservative with my money. We are living on it.

I didn't bring up global issues. I was trying to illustrate what I see happening in Western Canada. Like I said, there's more to this than is appropriate to get into here and now. At least I haven't called you a liar for your info like you called me out after that attempt at illustration.

Unless you can refute that points raised in the point your ramblings and pontifications are irrelevant. The burden of proof is on you.

Evan
10-16-2009, 10:32 PM
To prove what?

gmatov
10-17-2009, 03:27 AM
OK, OK!!

I don't care what sulfur sells for. The fact that it IS what the oil people call "sour crude", costs so much more to refine, and you get 3 or more percent sulfur from those crudes. That is what would be called slag in steel making. You have to pay to dispose of it.

YOU get 13 bucks a ton for your trash. I consider that a good deal. Or you get 282 bucks some months.

Asphalt is the same. Trash, but when the price of crude goes up, the price of that trash goes out of sight. Doubles, trebles, the cost of paving roads, with your trash.

Oil is in about the same category as hog slaughtering. Everything but the squeal is worth money.

Cheers,

George