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jugs
06-26-2010, 05:05 AM
plugging the Gulf oil leak thread is now HUGE & very interesting, but now getting difficult to follow with all the OT stuff (yes I'm as guilty as anyone).

SO I've opened this thread in the hope it will be used for all the 'other stuff' - cars ramming trees, ass kicking, history of slavery & world wars .....

Enjoy yourselves,
john
:)

jugs
06-26-2010, 05:22 AM
Ok I'd better start this thread off,



Quote:
Evan, what's your contingency plan when you hit the tree /other object and your airbag doesn't work? Squirt blood all over and die? Or maybe you plan on driving safely?


I willingly assume that risk. If I hit a tree that is my problem. Squirt blood and die may be the outcome. Too bad, so sad. I willingly accept that risk.

However, if my driving carries the possibility of doing harm to others that are not also driving and therefore did not willingly accept the risk that driving carries then I would require a plan to mitigate that risk to others. I do in fact have such a plan. I cannot drive safely for more than about 30 minutes because I may fall asleep at the wheel after that. My plan, which has been in effect for several years is to never drive for more than 30 minutes without a long break of an hour or more.

Evan your plan is much like BPs, it contains no margine of safety :eek:

john
:)

jugs
06-26-2010, 06:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jugs
Yes we did ask for help in 1939 & America said NO & only entered the war 2yrs later, after Pearl Harbour in 1941.

History tells us that America was also 3yrs late for WW1.


Funny, the Americans, and the Germans, have a different recollection of World War I and II :D


Hollywood has distorted the facts

Lets look at a time line.

WW1
1914 - July/aug. war starts in Europe.
1917 - 6th April USA declared war.
1918 - 11th November the armistice.

WW2
1939 - 1 September, Hitler invades Poland. Britain and France declare war on Germany two days later. the USA proclaimed neutrality,
1941 - 7 December, Japan attacks Pearl Harbour, and the US enters the war.
1945 - War ends (diferent dates in different places)

john
:)

Evan
06-26-2010, 08:05 AM
Evan your plan is much like BPs, it contains no margine of safety

Actually it is very much different. Mine plan works, theirs doesn't. Also I only drive to town which is a 15 minute drive each way with plenty of long breaks between for tool shopping. I bet Dr. Howard doesn't do any tool shopping for himself. He probably isn't taking enough breaks either. Just one yacht cruise in three months? No wonder he has been asleep at the wheel.

jugs
06-26-2010, 10:46 AM
Actually it is very much different. Mine plan works, theirs doesn't. Also I only drive to town which is a 15 minute drive each way with plenty of long breaks between for tool shopping. I bet Dr. Howard doesn't do any tool shopping for himself. He probably isn't taking enough breaks either. Just one yacht cruise in three months? No wonder he has been asleep at the wheel.

So you have got a 15min margin of error, that was'nt clear in last post.
keep safe.
john
:)

tdmidget
06-26-2010, 12:17 PM
But , you see Evan has a plan for prevention. He knows the hazard and instead of assuming the risk of running a school bus off the road because he is fatigued he prevents the situation.
I suspect that if Evan ran a drilling operation he would have zero tolerance for an attitude "so what? We've got the BOP and if it doesn't work we have 400 boats contracted to skim it up."
While all accidents may not be preventable one must enter in to prevention with the attitude that they are. Only with the attitude that accidents CAN be prevented will we be successful.

vpt
06-26-2010, 12:20 PM
Only drill on land. If you can't supply enough tough cookies. Gas for a car isn't important enough to risk whole oceans.

RobbieKnobbie
06-26-2010, 12:42 PM
Is it the egg white or the yolk that causes baked goods to rise?

ptjw7uk
06-26-2010, 03:30 PM
CO2

Peter

Deja Vu
06-26-2010, 03:39 PM
Actually it is very much different. Mine plan works, theirs doesn't. Also I only drive to town which is a 15 minute drive each way with plenty of long breaks between for tool shopping. I bet Dr. Howard doesn't do any tool shopping for himself. He probably isn't taking enough breaks either. Just one yacht cruise in three months? No wonder he has been asleep at the wheel.

I ....I don't know about that......

I cannot drive safely for more than about 30 minutes because I may fall asleep at the wheel after that. My plan, which has been in effect for several years is to never drive for more than 30 minutes without a long break of an hour or more.
Jugs is right when he says you have no margine of safety.
If you had made your maximum driving time less....oh say, maybe 25 minutes, then you would have a margine of safety. Being different is not always a favorable characteristic, but in your respect it works well.

lakeside53
06-26-2010, 04:07 PM
Gheeze Jugs.. now you've gone and done it. We had the argumentative types corralled into one thread, and now they've spilled out.:mad:

:D

Deja Vu
06-26-2010, 04:19 PM
Gheeze Jugs.. now you've gone and done it. We had the argumentative types corralled into one thread, and now they've spilled out.:mad:

:D
LOL! ........

Evan
06-26-2010, 04:32 PM
Jugs is right when he says you have no margine of safety.
If you had made your maximum driving time less....oh say, maybe 25 minutes, then you would have a margine of safety. Being different is not always a favorable characteristic, but in your respect it works well.

What you don't know and I didn't explain is that there is no place to go around here that is 30 minutes of driving time. Town is 15 minutes and the next town is over an hour. Also, as long as I make sure I have recently napped, which I always do, I am good for an hour or so. I also make sure not to take the medication that is responsible for the sleep attacks before I must drive. It isn't like a egg timer where I fall asleep at exactly 30:00 minutes. If it was it would be easier to deal with. Regardless, it still bears no relationship to having a disaster plan that works. Everybody that drives accepts the risk they pose to themselves and the risk that others pose to them.

The vast majority of people that live on the Gulf Coast have no say in the matter of deep well drilling. I am sure that many right now want an effective disaster plan for the future.

jugs
06-26-2010, 07:05 PM
What you don't know and I didn't explain is that there is no place to go around here that is 30 minutes of driving time. Town is 15 minutes and the next town is over an hour. Also, as long as I make sure I have recently napped, which I always do, I am good for an hour or so. I also make sure not to take the medication that is responsible for the sleep attacks before I must drive. It isn't like a egg timer where I fall asleep at exactly 30:00 minutes. If it was it would be easier to deal with. Regardless, it still bears no relationship to having a disaster plan that works. Everybody that drives accepts the risk they pose to themselves and the risk that others pose to them.

.

I'm sorry for your problem but you have no margin of safety when going to the next town but a fair margin of safety if going to your own town. In that case you should Stay Local, the risk you pose to yourself ( but more importantly to others ) is to great.

I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my dad, not screaming in agony like his passengers. :D

john
:)

rohart
06-26-2010, 07:10 PM
One of my cars has a negative margin of safety.

I haven't investigated properly yet, but when I try to put my driver's side seatbelt on and the car is moving, I have to brake to free it up. If I'm accelerating away, then it feels fully locked up.

I guess some idiot's fitted a lefthand side mech on the right (driver's in UK).

Ha ! Just thought it might be a Yankee mechanic ! No- don't take that seriously - they drive on the wrong side in Europe too.

The result is I only get protected from collisions in the rear.

Is that off topic enough for you, Jugs ?

jugs
06-26-2010, 07:22 PM
Gheeze Jugs.. now you've gone and done it. We had the argumentative types corralled into one thread, and now they've spilled out.:mad:

:D

Like a creeping pestilence, contaminating every thing they touch, spreading doubt & derision at every turn, shaking the very foundations of civilisation & bringing the demise of mankind ever closer. :eek:

[well thatís the plan].

john
:)

RancherBill
06-26-2010, 09:21 PM
Hollywood has distorted the facts

Lets look at a time line.

WW1
1914 - July/aug. war starts in Europe.
1917 - 6th April USA declared war.
1918 - 11th November the armistice.

WW2
1939 - 1 September, Hitler invades Poland. Britain and France declare war on Germany two days later. the USA proclaimed neutrality,
1941 - 7 December, Japan attacks Pearl Harbour, and the US enters the war.
The Correct Dates

Japan Declares war on Britain and the US, and it attacks Pearl Harbor and Hong Kong on Dec 7, 1941 The Pacific theatre was an allied theater with American, British, British Commonwealth, and Allied forces.

The US goes to war with Germany and Italy AFTER they declared war on Dec 11, 1941

The North Africa theatre started June 10, 1940 and the US joined the Allies and entered that theater on May 11, 1942.


1945 - War ends (diferent dates in different places)

john
:)

The US did not run to the aid of the British and the Allies - Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other Commonwealth Countries. The US entered the war after Hitler and Mussolini declared was on the US under terms of the Tripartite Agreement signed on 27 September 1940 by Japan, Italy and Germany.

Evan
06-26-2010, 09:51 PM
I'm sorry for your problem but you have no margin of safety when going to the next town but a fair margin of safety if going to your own town. In that case you should Stay Local, the risk you pose to yourself ( but more importantly to others ) is to great.


That is absolutely correct. It is one of the things that is most upsetting to me about my retirement. I was hoping to be able to visit my grand children on a regular basis and to be able to attend star parties around western Canada. Instead I am stuck here. It truly sucks. If I stop taking the medication that causes the problem I don't have enough energy to even make use of my downstairs shop. The medication largely erases the very common extreme exhaustion that accompanies fibromyalgia. I have a grand daughter a year old that I haven't seen yet. I'm not looking for sympathy but retirement can be very different from the Happy-happy adverts you see on TV. Lies, all lies.

RancherBill
06-26-2010, 10:02 PM
Actually it is very much different. Mine plan works, theirs doesn't......

This is the same type of logic that certain BP field people used at the Macondo well. There is a risk, we "understand" it and "trust me, I know what I am doing".

BP - the corporation, gets all the blame, but, is people standing on the rig that made the decision and executed those decisions. NOBODY imagined the actual outcome. They might have thought it was a 1:100 or 1:1000 risk, but even the 'worst' would be manageable with modern technology downhole, safe rig design, whizzy fire suppression system whatever.

To come back to your logic, limiting trips is good, but what about unforeseen occurrences like e coli, for example, throwing off your normal rhythm?

A safe system for you might be some sort of button that you have to press every 30 seconds with a 5 second window or it throttles the "drive by wire" to idle. A mechanical throttle might not be suitable for you.

I am in no way saying you should do this or in any way criticizing you personally.

I am really ranting about BP getting the bums rush.

My Son In Law was working in the Oil Sands. Safety was always a concern and priority. After the BP refinery fire everybody took a new fresh and hard look at safety. Big changes were made. Accident rates that had been thought to be good were substantially improved. Sadly there are still accidents.

Out of this whole mess I hope 2 things happen.

The first is that there is an ISO standard developed that has all the best ideas and concepts around the world. Someone said the Macondo rig should have had, and somebody said it is required in Canadian offshore drilling. The highest and best have to be all pulled together.

The second thing is that there is some sort of forced and enforced licensing of technology. For example, Company X has a proprietary technology, it should be required that all companies pay fees to use this proprietary technology.

I am dreaming what we will end up with is Camel Regulations. A camel is a horse that was designed by politicians and sleeping bureaucrats.:eek:

Rant OFF

The Artful Bodger
06-27-2010, 12:00 AM
The US did not run to the aid of the British and the Allies - Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other Commonwealth Countries. The US entered the war after Hitler and Mussolini declared was on the US under terms of the Tripartite Agreement signed on 27 September 1940 by Japan, Italy and Germany.

I suppose there is no doubt then that it was the US Army Air Force that swept the Luftwaffe from the skies of Europe and prevented the Nazi invasion of England, it was Paton's tanks that swept the plains of Kursk free of the Panzer hordes and the GIs who fought their way through Berlin and up the steps of the Reichstag street by bloody street.

RancherBill
06-27-2010, 12:05 AM
I suppose there is no doubt then that it was the US Army Air Force that swept the Luftwaffe from the skies of Europe and prevented the Nazi invasion of England, it was Paton's tanks that swept the plains of Kursk free of the Panzer hordes and the GIs who fought their way through Berlin and up the steps of the Reichstag street by bloody street.


I saw those movies. They were good. :)

RobbieKnobbie
06-27-2010, 12:16 AM
I suppose there is no doubt then that it was the US Army Air Force that swept the Luftwaffe from the skies of Europe and prevented the Nazi invasion of England, it was Paton's tanks that swept the plains of Kursk free of the Panzer hordes and the GIs who fought their way through Berlin and up the steps of the Reichstag street by bloody street.

I was just speaking with Dr Tony Bottello, MIT Physicist and world-renown PR guy... He assured me that all of the above was accomplished by Erik Brinkman (himself) armed only with a 45 colt and a space age, but otherwise entirely secret, ultralight, transformable hang glider/motorbike manufactured in seven hundred thirty four different facilities located throught greater metropolitan Denver, Co.

Evan
06-27-2010, 01:17 AM
To come back to your logic, limiting trips is good, but what about unforeseen occurrences like e coli, for example, throwing off your normal rhythm?

A safe system for you might be some sort of button that you have to press every 30 seconds with a 5 second window or it throttles the "drive by wire" to idle. A mechanical throttle might not be suitable for you.


The same could happen to you. Do you have a plan should you suffer a heart attack while driving?

gmatov
06-27-2010, 01:21 AM
Is RobbiKnobbie some sort of dickhead? Why else would he make such an asinine comment?

Bill,

BP ain't getting the bum's rush. They got problems BIG TIME, we ain't booting their asses back across the ocean. You shat in our yard, you will clean it up.

Cheers,

George

At least I hope so.

tdmidget
06-27-2010, 01:42 AM
I think that this very thread is the kind of thinking that led us into this mess How can you equate Evans thoughts about what might happen if he should be careless and cause an accident analogous on what ever scale with bizarre posts re: the starts and objectives of wars 60 + years ago?
This looks like BP: I don't like it, I don't want to hear it,I'll ignore it. Off to the circular file.
Jugs you may have a great future with BP. Assuming there is a BP.

dp
06-27-2010, 02:55 AM
Is RobbiKnobbie some sort of dickhead? Why else would he make such an asinine comment?

You've apparently not been following the magic motorcycle thread here, George. Dr. Tony is quite a piece of work.

RobbieKnobbie
06-27-2010, 03:39 AM
Is RobbiKnobbie some sort of dickhead? Why else would he make such an asinine comment?



Asinine? Absolutely. But it's all in good fun, sir.

jugs
06-28-2010, 03:40 AM
Quote:tg midget post 2086 in pluging...
Your "relief" wells are right there with the clowns who want to stick inflatable plugs in the well..(especially the girl genius who wanted to do it with old tires and then inflate them) ,....

Well, you silly men,

it would have worked if you used those nice whitewall tyres, but they kept getting black & mucky with all that oil, couldn't you get a little man to turn off the yucky poo while they fit them. BTW you could use some pretty green ribbon (making it environmentally friendly) to secure them.


Sorry, must go & twitter, I've had to much Cappuccino !


:D
john
:)

jugs
06-28-2010, 04:00 AM
#2075 (http://bbs.homeshopmachinist.net/showpost.php?p=563912&postcount=2075)
Yesterday, 11:01 PM
Deja Vu (http://bbs.homeshopmachinist.net/member.php?u=12650)

Aside from all this chatter, and to remain somewhat on topic....

The first wells being drilled should of course be used to intercept the leaking well and stuff it. Subsquent wells drilled to the same reservoir could easily be made at any time in the future.
Drilling to intercept and plug the leaky well is the main and correct direction to go at this time.

Do all agree with this?





Actually, this is getting to be funny.

First, I didn't say to STOP the intercepts. Keep them going. Whether they work or not.

Second, you have made lots of hay from the 2 billion the US gave to Brazil to do deep water drilling. Remember? George Soros owns the MAJORITY of Petrobras? That Socialist! That Liberal! And WE, the USG, gave HIM 2 billion bucks to lure those 33 drilling rigs from the Gulf to BRAZIL, to enrich George Soros.

Sad truth is that George Soros SOLD his stake in Petrobras, he didn't buy it all up.

Oh, and Obama didn't GIVE Soros and Brazil 2 billion bucks. George Bush did in 2007.

So, we have 33 drilling rigs in the Gulf that could be poking holes in the seabed. There is no shortage. 33 are available, at least.

"Are you saying that they won't drill additional wells to keep the price up? If the well is flowing 100,000 BOPD, and world consumption is 85,000,000 BOPD, that one well, or group of wells really won't have much effect on pricing, now will it?"

Most definitely! The price of crude has jumped 2 bucks or more numerous times when the people who tell us what our stocks are is down 400,000 BBLs less than normal. I consider it false information to maneuver the prices to their advantage.

IF there were 6 more wells producing 100,000 each per day, and I don't know if it is even possible, it would definitely affect the price of oil.

THIS well is BLOWING out 100,000 BPD by the Gov estimate. I mentioned about 30 or 40 pages ago that a successful Gulf well was PUMPING, that is, having the oil DRAWN out at 6500 BPD.

"I have no earthly idea how large this particular reservoir is, but it is HUGE! Drill a dozen wells and it may take a decade to bring the pressure down."

Drill NO relief wells and this one may be spewing for a CENTURY! ONE relief well cuts the time in half, TWO, in thirds, THREE in fourths, FOUR, FIVE , SIX, all reduce the finite time. It SHOULD reduce in pressure according to how many relief vents you plug into it.

Why is this so hard to envision, not only for you REAL OILMEN, but for some who cheer them on?

"The first wells being drilled should of course be used to intercept the leaking well and stuff it. Subsquent wells drilled to the same reservoir could easily be made at any time in the future.
Drilling to intercept and plug the leaky well is the main and correct direction to go at this time.

Do all agree with this?

Y E S.
But I doubt if George will "

FIRST, there is NO GUARANTEE that they can shut it down, even IF they hit it.

SECOND, they could at the SAME time be drilling relief wells.

The whole intent, in case you don't know, was to drill this well, plug it, go and drill another, plug that, drill another, plug that, etc. Eventually, send in a production rig, drill and connect, move to the next, drill and connect, and so on.

They thought they were shutting in the well till they had enough to redrill and connect them all to the spiderweb beneath the Gulf.

"So what do you do with the leak while :-

20 rigs drill 20 wells, (how many deep water drilling rigs have we got [1 less since horizon went bang] ).
then those 20 rigs are replaced by 20 production platforms (anyone got a few multi-milion $ platforms on standby ??).
oh then thereís the subsea pipe grid all the way (70miles) to the new onshore tank farm ÖÖ
Then the 20 well reduce the pressure over the next 10-20 yrs.
Oh donít forget that any capture of oil leaks stops for weeks during the hurricane seasons.

We await your answer with interest."

Jugs,

We have 33 that are threatening to go to Brazil if they will send them a 20 buck retainer, according to some of you. They're the ones under the moratorium.

See, there's one place you get iffy. I say drill 6 to XX relief wells and YOU say EACH of them need a production rig. WAY back there, you say they drill lots of wells and connect them undersea to ONE production rig. That is what I see on MY TV screen. Mebbe 12 wells that all feed one rig with one feeder to shore based terminals.

Now, YOU bring up "Where you gonna get XX production rigs to handle XX new wells?"

Make my mind up. There ain't 3600 rigs tending 3600 wells, there are 3600 production rigs tending many more thousands of wells, multiples of which are connected to each rig.

"So less dense than you appear to be."

I must be dense. I just realized what you meant. LOL. No biggie.

"Nice one Steve, informative, clear & concise, but I bet George will continue to ignore the facts & pursue the drilling of lots of holes.

There are lots of skilled people on here + a few 'armchair experts' most are very friendly, don't be put off by the "ODD" ones.

john

jugs,

I rarely get PO'd on a Forum, and I am not now. BUT, HOW IN THE HELL can you deny that relief wells would MOST LIKELY reduce the remaining pressure of the reservoir and reduce the leakage rate? Are you simply deficient in hydraulics? Or pneumatics?

The more taps you make to a vessel under pressure, a compressor tank, the sooner it will reach atmospheric pressure.

Why do you some of you who make intelligent comments when speaking "machine talk" get so gaga when it comes to 4 mile deep drilling for oil?

As to the "accumulator", "ď They can't shut this hydraulic system down. So they have to relieve the pressure. Like an accumulator.Ē ???? Thatís a dumb statement."

Have you any idea what an "accumulator" is, other than possibly the network of hose or pipe under the sea?

Hydraulics use them to accommodate systems that require instant pressure need, lag in pump production, or flow thru a valve.

You never work on an hydraulic system unless you can secure or bleed off an accumulator. You may blow your eyes out if you don't, or worse, if you can imagine worse. For your info, that is "stored", or, "latent" energy. If you don't know that, you should go back to school. (Or McDonald's) Even McDonald's will tell you you don't clean the grills till they cool down. The HEAT is STORED energy. You'll get burnt by a stove that is turned off

Anything I have said has been "dumb" to you so I don't really give a damn what you say, nor the other "experts" who deride everything but what BP says it wants to do.

Cheers,

George

IS there anybody BUT BP and some USG overseers trying to shut this thing down?[/quote]

Well George, I'm confused, is that a yes ???

john
:)

John Stevenson
06-28-2010, 05:34 AM
Is RobbiKnobbie some sort of dickhead? Why else would he make such an asinine comment?


George

.

Personally i thought it was funny, far better than the Simpsons.

.

Your Old Dog
06-28-2010, 07:19 AM
post removed....



I don't want to be a part of the carnage about to happen here. :D

jugs
06-28-2010, 10:32 AM
post removed....



I don't want to be a part of the carnage about to happen here. :D

But your dads advice was common sense, something sadly lacking these days.

john
:)

Evan
06-28-2010, 10:42 AM
There is no such thing as "common sense". What common sense really is is an opinion that you happen to agree with. Sometimes it is right and sometimes it's wrong.

vpt
06-28-2010, 10:48 AM
There is no such thing as "common sense". What common sense really is is an opinion that you happen to agree with. Sometimes it is right and sometimes it's wrong.



What? Common sense tells you not to stick your hand in the rotating blade. Thats not an opinion.

jugs
06-28-2010, 01:39 PM
There is no such thing as "common sense". What common sense really is is an opinion that you happen to agree with. Sometimes it is right and sometimes it's wrong.

Utter rubbish !!

As you know I am a Ďcommon maní.

I (in general ) act sensibly, I donít jump from planes without a parachute, I donít drive when sleepy or on the wrong side of the road, I donít stick any bits of me into moving machinery, I donít run out into the road without looking; these are choices not opinions.

These choices are made with knowledge of the learned experience of others passed thro generations, when I act sensibly using this common knowledge I am using common sense, what do you use ??

In my opinion you are wrong, also it is my opinion that common sense prevails.

john
:)