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View Full Version : Aurora Alert: Possible aurora tonight.



Evan
06-08-2011, 07:04 PM
There was a massive solar eruption yesterday that may produce aurora tonight that are much further south and north of the usual limits. No guarantees are possible but the chance is there.

Spectacular video here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_3u_0NN7OM

x39
06-08-2011, 08:54 PM
Zero chance here, its overcast.

quasi
06-09-2011, 12:55 AM
it's like the Sun had a zit pop!

lynnl
06-09-2011, 05:14 PM
I didn't learn of this til today, were there any reports of aurora in the southern latitudes?

Does a higher probability of such exist for several days?

Where are we in the 11 year solar cycle now?

questions, questions.... :)

Evan
06-09-2011, 06:19 PM
We are well into the next solar cycle, finally. It is predicted to be much less active than the last.

Here is the prediction:

http://ixian.ca/pics8/solarcycle.jpg

The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) mostly missed Earth so there weren't much in the way of aurora last night. The probability of aurora depends on the CME hitting the magnetosphere of Earth and having an opposite polarity to the Earth's magnetic field. Although we have some idea of the direction of the CME we cannot detect the magnetic field orientation until it is here.

Once the CME has passed so have the chances for increased aurora activity.

aostling
03-30-2012, 07:41 PM
Although this thread is now months old, it's an appropriate place to post a link to this recent imagery from the ISS. It shows lightning strikes, city lights, and dynamic footage of auroras. Somebody at NASA has good taste in music, too.

Perhaps some of the Canadian members might recognize some of the terrain.


http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap120305.html

dp
03-30-2012, 07:54 PM
Dangit, Allan - I checked outside and saw a clear Seattle day and was about to hoot for joy when I saw the date of the OP :)

Might as well add some useful content while I'm here - the newest solar activity plot:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/sunspot.gif

sasquatch
03-30-2012, 07:55 PM
Seen at least 100 "Wal_Marts" all lit up!!:mad:

Evan
03-30-2012, 08:06 PM
With a plot like that averages just don't tell this story. When I worked for Xerox my average driving time between customers was 22 minutes. The problem with that was that I didn't have a single customer that was 22 minutes away from any other customer. Not even close. They were either 5 minutes or over an hour.

That solar activity plot now contains two outliers in quick succession.

dp
03-30-2012, 08:14 PM
Yes - and it would also be more interesting if they left the red line in as time advances as for quite a long time it has been wildly off track indicating something unusual is going on up there.

The magnetic field at the sun is on an angle and is rotating rather like a swash plate as the sun rotates, and that was a factor in the odd CME effects we just experienced.

I found a 2007 prediction that had been updated in 2009 so overlayed that with this newest one. The difference between the blue line and the red line is the prediction error. While it is unlikely the two lines will track perfectly, the scale of the prediction error for the last 8 years or so has been unusually large.

http://metalworkingathome.com/images/solarcycleoverlay.jpg