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View Full Version : OT; heating oil prices



QSIMDO
06-25-2011, 01:09 PM
Now that they've "explored, drilled & tapped" the strategic oil reserve (...) where do you guys think the price of heating oil will go for this winter?

My supplier sent out their price-locking contract before the taps were thrown open so I'm considering rolling the dice this winter.

What say you?

flylo
06-25-2011, 01:48 PM
I just bought prpane for $1.69/gal. I have a friend in the propane business that thinks it will go up,but who knows.

gvasale
06-25-2011, 04:52 PM
It will fluc(*)tuate somewhat, but ultimately go up. Since greed rules, especially in the petroleum business, but greed is not limited to the petroleum business. I wish I could heibernate when the weather gets cold.

wbleeker
06-25-2011, 05:13 PM
Propane at 1.69 a gallon is cheap! We are paying 73 cents a litre which is 2.77 AUD for a US Gallon. 2.90 USD!
Australia exports a lot of LPG to the Northern Hemisphere and when the demand goes up our prices go up.
Will

sasquatch
06-25-2011, 05:18 PM
Furnace oil here in North Eastern Ontario is right now @ $4.68 per Can. Gallon.

Just filled a 200 gallon tank, cost $950.00.

We just use this for back up when away in real cold weather, otherwise we burn wood.

Evan
06-25-2011, 05:24 PM
Get your oil tank filled now. The best estimates are that by the end of this year world demand will exceed supply by at least a million barrels per day. That includes any increase that OPEC can put on the table. Prices are low right now compared to what they will be in six months. Even if the Libya situation were resolved today they won't be back on line for months. Even when they do come back on line demand will outstrip supply. Japan will be switching to oil to replace lost capacity from nukes that will be retired shortly because of safety concerns.

Several other countries such as Germany have decided to close down their nuke plants. China's demand for oil is increasing rapidly. The Persian Gulf countries have discovered the benefits of air conditioning and their demand for electricity is skyrocketing. They mainly use oil to generate electricity.

The Saudi oil fields don't have as much reserve as most people think. They have been boosting output by pumping in salt water to the fields and that strategy has limited the long term extraction potential.

We haven't even begun to see the end of world oil demand increases. The majority of Africa still isn't modernized but will become so eventually. When that demand begins to escalate prices will really jump.

There is also the very real potential for more supply interruptions. The "Arab Spring" isn't over and we can expect to see more unrest and even civil warfare in other Arab states. If Saudi Arabia falls apart there will be virtually no limit to where the price can go.

sasquatch
06-25-2011, 06:23 PM
Agreed some day it will run out,,, Not good when that day comes.

We,ve got 50 acres of mature trees for firewood, but with no oil, i don,t think i,ll be cutting it with a swede saw, or the old crosscut saw, not sure , guess if that happens before i croak, we'll just have to live in one room.:rolleyes: (Or join the exodus at that time to a very crowded warmer climate).

Evan
06-25-2011, 09:42 PM
We will never run out of oil. There is still a lot in the ground in various forms. It's getting much harder to recover. We will gradually stop burning it as a general purpose fuel as the price goes up. That's a huge waste of a really valuable resource anyway. It is much more valuable as a petrochemical feed stock to make plastics of nearly every type and a huge range of other products from dyes to vitamins.

loose nut
06-25-2011, 09:47 PM
Plastics only consume about 3% of the oil used and with people thinking "green" that may not increase as much as it might have.

sasquatch
06-25-2011, 10:04 PM
Not sure about "Never running out of oil",,, is it not like say as Eg: an orange , only so much liquid in there to be drawn out?

I keep hearing occaisionaly that Canada does have hundreds of wells with oil that have been "Discovered" but just left capped. Maybe it was a few thousands when one considers the size of the area.?

Evan
06-25-2011, 10:22 PM
There will always be some oil left in the ground. It all depends on how much money it takes to recover it. Oil fields are abandoned long before they run out of oil because it is no longer economical to run the pumps. That will change as the price goes higher and new technologies such as solvent extraction and steam extraction will be used to recover even more.

Plastics may only use 3% of oil pumped but that percentage will rise as the use of oil for fuel goes down. Plastics aren't the only products made from petrochemicals. For instance, over 80% of all acetylene is made by reforming natural gas. Of all the acetylene made fuel gas use only accounts for less than 20% of production.

loose nut
06-26-2011, 10:58 AM
I keep hearing occaisionaly that Canada does have hundreds of wells with oil that have been "Discovered" but just left capped. Maybe it was a few thousands when one considers the size of the area.?

Most countries do, it's part of the "known reserves" that are quoted. Many times it is because it isn't cost effective to get it out yet, see Evans previous post. With all the development of bio/synthetic fuels, having fuel isn't going to be as big a problem in the future as it was in the past, if you have the money. Forget about your lithium battery powered cars to, there isn't anywhere enough lithium in the world to do the job. We will have to wait for the carbon nano-tube batteries for really good battery capacity that will do the job. 50 years maybe.