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Thread: OT hurricane Dorien.

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Amick View Post
    Interesting facts, where did you get them ?
    From weather stations themselves,
    and here is a good example, read this whole statement, notice in the first part there is gusts of 86mph range, thats the most they could find all around Charleston,
    then in the second part they make statement of sustained winds 110mph.
    They got 110mph sustained at winds aloft, and reporting that as a cat-II storm.


    000
    WTNT65 KNHC 051655
    TCUAT5

    Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
    100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

    ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...

    Multiple observing stations located in and around Charleston Harbor
    have reported wind gusts of 75-80 mph (120-129 km/h) within the last
    hour.

    A Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
    of 86 mph (138 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.


    SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...32.7N 79.0W
    ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
    ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky

    AND, they are not adhering to their own definition of Saffir-Simpson scale.
    The scale is a sustained wind of 1 minute at 10m height. (33feet)

    The 86 gust does not qualify for sustained wind, and neither does the 110mph at 10,000ft.
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/sshws.pdf

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by mattthemuppet View Post
    Sea levels on that part of the Florida coast are forecast to be about 1 to 2 feet higher by 2060 than 1992. Even if it ends up at half the lower range, that's still going to expose alot more residents to flood risk and increase the damage caused by a storm, whether or not that storm is stronger than it otherwise would have been.
    And in here we are still recovering from the last ice age and ground is rising 4 to 10mm per year. In some shallow areas the shoreline has shifted by hundreds of meters in last 100 years and some small harbours have dried up twice within one generation.
    Old rocky shorelines are still showing in the forests near my parents home and that is now 30km from sea!

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by mattthemuppet View Post
    one can also take the opposite approach and say that it's just part of a large cycle and nothing much has changed climate-wise, you just have to look at it with a longer time frame. The oceans are warming and the ocean levels are increasing, both of which puts more energy into storms and increases the consequences when one makes landfall. That doesn't necessarily mean there will be more storms or that any individual storm is going to be better or worse than average, but it does mean that the extremes are going to become more extreme. Think about Miami - major urban area, already struggling with salt water ingress and flooding. Sea levels on that part of the Florida coast are forecast to be about 1 to 2 feet higher by 2060 than 1992. Even if it ends up at half the lower range, that's still going to expose alot more residents to flood risk and increase the damage caused by a storm, whether or not that storm is stronger than it otherwise would have been.

    Sure, there have been greenhouse Earths during the history of the Earth and species appear and disappear, but that's not alot of consolation to this one species if you're living near the coast or on an island over the next 50-60 years.
    July 1715 a Hurricane hit the East Coast of Florida and destroyed 11 Spanish treasure ships,killed 1100 men and stranded another 1500 on the Florida coast.Only one ship of the original fleet of 12 survived,The Griffon,a French merchant vessel,that reached France a month later.

    These storms are nothing new,they are not increasing in intensity or frequency,don't believe the media hype.

    Miami,as is much of Florida,is perched atop a limestone shelf.That shelf is chris crossed with subterranean rivers of fresh water that are filled through the watershed,flow out and eventually empty into the ocean.Over time these rivers erode the Limestone,what's happening in south Florida has more to do with erosion and subsidence than with sea level rise.Remember the news article about the poor man who was swallowed alive in his house by a massive sinkhole that opened up under his house while he was sleeping?Subsidence caused by erosion.

    The predictions regarding sea level rise in whatever time frame can be taken with a grain of salt.They are mostly based on assumption and computer models fed with faulty data.Keep in mind,we have a hundred satellites dedicated to atmospheric science.Hundreds of weather stations on land and in the sea and at last count 35 or so computer models dedicated to storm track prediction.All of this and look at how much uncertainty we had trying to predict what one storm would do over the course of two weeks.

    Then there is this little tidbit of news that didn't make it into the mainstream news feeds.Micheal Mann,the author of the much vaunted hockey stick graph lost his defamation case against Dr Tim Ball.Not only did he lose,he was found in-contempt for refusing to produce the methodology he used to produce his data(remember,if an experiment cannot be reproduced under trial,then the result of the experiment must be rejected) If he had nothing to hide,then why not release the methodology?He should be overjoyed at the opportunity to have his work verified,unless something is wrong. And this is one source of the data being used to predict climate change 50-100 years into the future?I'm not taking any bets based on that.
    I just need one more tool,just one!

  4. #14
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    technically we're still in "icehouse Earth" mode and without all the CO2 we've been pumping into the atmosphere would probably be heading into a glacial period.

    As for Finland rising, yay for Finland. Most other coastlines in the world however are not. Some countries will disappear over the next 50-100 years. Sea temperature increases and level rises are not uniform either. Air temperatures have risen twice as fast in Alaska than the contiguous US and waters around Antarctica have warmed more rapidly than other parts of the globe (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-08195-6). Got to look at the whole picture.

  5. #15
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    Regardless of what category the storm was the damage looks more like what a powerful tornado would do. The devastation is unbelievable.It must be terrible to lose your house. It doesnt look like a tree is left behind. That will take many years to rebuild. It would make sense to make new laws where all houses have to be brick with a concrete roof.
    I suspect these storm will become the new norm in twenty or so years.

  6. #16
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    Everyone, including the enviro wackos, acknowledges that there was an 'Ice Age'.
    But nobody, acknowledges what happened at the 'end' of the Ice Age.
    And that would be a period of ..........drum roll please........ "Global Warming"

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by plunger View Post
    Regardless of what category the storm was the damage looks more like what a powerful tornado would do. The devastation is unbelievable.It must be terrible to lose your house. It doesnt look like a tree is left behind. That will take many years to rebuild. It would make sense to make new laws where all houses have to be brick with a concrete roof.
    I suspect these storm will become the new norm in twenty or so years.
    They've been around for atleast the last 13,000 years,so yes

    This year marked 50 years since Hurricane Camile,my grandparents and Uncle rode that one out in their house,the eye passing directy overhead.

    https://www.weather.gov/mob/camille

    "Camille ranks as the 2nd most intense hurricane to strike the continental US with 900 mb pressure and landfall intensity of 150 knots. Camille ranks just below the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane with 892 mb and 160 knots, while slightly stronger than Hurricane Andrew with 922 mb and 145 knots and Hurricane Michael with 919 mb and 140 knots. The actual maximum sustained winds of Hurricane Camille are not known as the hurricane destroyed all the wind-recording instruments in the landfall area. Re-analysis data found peak winds of 150 knots (roughly 175 mph) along the coast. A devastating storm tide of 24.6 feet occurred west of our area in Pass Christian, MS."

    Pictures here-

    https://www.wlox.com/2019/08/12/hurr...d-years-later/
    I just need one more tool,just one!

  8. #18
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    I say it every year someone makes one of these posts.

    Live in stupid places, win stupid prizes.

    The same places get battered by hurricanes year after year. I don't want to hear any whining or crying when you lose your house for the 5th time.

    Last edited by vpt; 09-05-2019 at 06:05 PM.
    Andy

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by wierdscience View Post
    July 1715 a Hurricane hit the East Coast of Florida and destroyed 11 Spanish treasure ships,killed 1100 men and stranded another 1500 on the Florida coast.Only one ship of the original fleet of 12 survived,The Griffon,a French merchant vessel,that reached France a month later.

    These storms are nothing new,they are not increasing in intensity or frequency,don't believe the media hype.

    Miami,as is much of Florida,is perched atop a limestone shelf.That shelf is chris crossed with subterranean rivers of fresh water that are filled through the watershed,flow out and eventually empty into the ocean.Over time these rivers erode the Limestone,what's happening in south Florida has more to do with erosion and subsidence than with sea level rise.Remember the news article about the poor man who was swallowed alive in his house by a massive sinkhole that opened up under his house while he was sleeping?Subsidence caused by erosion.

    The predictions regarding sea level rise in whatever time frame can be taken with a grain of salt.They are mostly based on assumption and computer models fed with faulty data.Keep in mind,we have a hundred satellites dedicated to atmospheric science.Hundreds of weather stations on land and in the sea and at last count 35 or so computer models dedicated to storm track prediction.All of this and look at how much uncertainty we had trying to predict what one storm would do over the course of two weeks.

    Then there is this little tidbit of news that didn't make it into the mainstream news feeds.Micheal Mann,the author of the much vaunted hockey stick graph lost his defamation case against Dr Tim Ball.Not only did he lose,he was found in-contempt for refusing to produce the methodology he used to produce his data(remember,if an experiment cannot be reproduced under trial,then the result of the experiment must be rejected) If he had nothing to hide,then why not release the methodology?He should be overjoyed at the opportunity to have his work verified,unless something is wrong. And this is one source of the data being used to predict climate change 50-100 years into the future?I'm not taking any bets based on that.
    hey man, every person is entitled to their opinion. I'm basing my opinion on the opinions of thousands of extremely smart people that have spent their entire lives studying a particular topic and are experts in their field if not the world. Now one could dismiss the opinions and conclusions of all those smart people as being politically biased or because they have a vested interest in their own success or because somehow their data is faulty and instead base ones opinion on what a talking head on TV tells you or what you read on an internet forum. That's your perogative.

    However, I'm a scientist. I go with data and the conclusions of experts, however flawed or incomplete they may be. That's just science, it's not an absolute like religion. More data is collected, models get refined, predictions become more precise. If that doesn't make sense to you then I guess the decades long attack on science in the name of climate science denial has done its job. Better watch some more TV.

  10. #20
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    Matt, your well-phrased response is a waste of figurative breath. As a scientist and educator, you're well aware of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

    For those who are not, a very brief summary:

    "In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability."

    -js
    There are no stupid questions. But there are lots of stupid answers. This is the internet.

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