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Thread: OT hurricane Dorien.

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Stewart View Post
    Matt, your well-phrased response is a waste of figurative breath. As a scientist and educator, you're well aware of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

    For those who are not, a very brief summary:

    "In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability."

    -js
    Is that just a nicer way to describe Democrats??

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo View Post
    Is that just a nicer way to describe Democrats??
    LOL. Nope, Fox TV viewers.

    -js
    There are no stupid questions. But there are lots of stupid answers. This is the internet.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo View Post
    From weather stations themselves,
    and here is a good example, read this whole statement, notice in the first part there is gusts of 86mph range, thats the most they could find all around Charleston,
    then in the second part they make statement of sustained winds 110mph.
    They got 110mph sustained at winds aloft, and reporting that as a cat-II storm.


    000
    WTNT65 KNHC 051655
    TCUAT5

    Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
    100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

    ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...

    Multiple observing stations located in and around Charleston Harbor
    have reported wind gusts of 75-80 mph (120-129 km/h) within the last
    hour.

    A Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
    of 86 mph (138 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.


    SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...32.7N 79.0W
    ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
    ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky

    AND, they are not adhering to their own definition of Saffir-Simpson scale.
    The scale is a sustained wind of 1 minute at 10m height. (33feet)

    The 86 gust does not qualify for sustained wind, and neither does the 110mph at 10,000ft.
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/sshws.pdf
    Where are you getting "...at 10,000ft..." ?

    Any description of the various wind parameters in a tropical storm system is, for the most part, a summary based on what sampling observations can be made. The wind speeds vary greatly throughout the horizontal extent of the storm...normally the strongest will be found in the right front quadrant, due in part to the added effect of the storm's forward motion. In the case of Dorian, since it had little forward motion I'd expect the wind field was a little more uniform. But even so, the rain and thunderstorm bands also play a part, so you're never likely to have a totally uniform wind pattern.

    But just because no reporting station or bouy, etc. reported a value reaching a given threshold certainly does not mean the storm did not have max sustained winds that strong.

    As for the Saffir-Simpson scale, that bulletin from the NHC you posted doesn't even mention a "category" ....that's what the Saffir-Simpson scale is, i.e. Cat 1, 2, ...etc., just a grouping based on the max sustained winds.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Stewart View Post
    Matt, your well-phrased response is a waste of figurative breath. As a scientist and educator, you're well aware of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

    For those who are not, a very brief summary:

    "In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability."

    -js
    I know, but I have to try. Otherwise we end up with things like measles outbreaks in first world countries. I did read an interesting opinion piece where it was suggested having a large red button in Doctors surgeries. Don't believe in vaccines, fine <slams button>, you don't get the benefit of the rest of medical science either. Clearly not going to happen due to the hypocratic oath, but an interesting take on the individual-centric approach to science where one can pick and choose what is real based on ones own "beliefs", be they religious, political or whatever.

    Didn't know about the Dunning-Kruger effect, but makes sense. Similar to how everyone believes they're a great driver but the average driving ability is mediocre to appalling.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo View Post
    Is that just a nicer way to describe Democrats??
    not much of a way to have a discussion now is it?

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Stewart View Post
    Matt, your well-phrased response is a waste of figurative breath. As a scientist and educator, you're well aware of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

    For those who are not, a very brief summary:

    "In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability."

    -js
    You,who lives in a city that literally cannot keep people from defecating in the street,have no business lecturing people on the Dunning-Kruger effect.
    I just need one more tool,just one!

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by mattthemuppet View Post
    hey man, every person is entitled to their opinion. I'm basing my opinion on the opinions of thousands of extremely smart people that have spent their entire lives studying a particular topic and are experts in their field if not the world. Now one could dismiss the opinions and conclusions of all those smart people as being politically biased or because they have a vested interest in their own success or because somehow their data is faulty and instead base ones opinion on what a talking head on TV tells you or what you read on an internet forum. That's your perogative.

    However, I'm a scientist. I go with data and the conclusions of experts, however flawed or incomplete they may be. That's just science, it's not an absolute like religion. More data is collected, models get refined, predictions become more precise. If that doesn't make sense to you then I guess the decades long attack on science in the name of climate science denial has done its job. Better watch some more TV.
    Herd mentality,being part of the herd makes you feel safer,it's doesn't make you smarter.
    I just need one more tool,just one!

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by mattthemuppet View Post
    I know, but I have to try. Otherwise we end up with things like measles outbreaks in first world countries. I did read an interesting opinion piece where it was suggested having a large red button in Doctors surgeries. Don't believe in vaccines, fine <slams button>, you don't get the benefit of the rest of medical science either. Clearly not going to happen due to the hypocratic oath, but an interesting take on the individual-centric approach to science where one can pick and choose what is real based on ones own "beliefs", be they religious, political or whatever.

    Didn't know about the Dunning-Kruger effect, but makes sense. Similar to how everyone believes they're a great driver but the average driving ability is mediocre to appalling.
    I don't agree and never have agreed with anti-vaxers,but then most are polar opposites from my political and social views on everything else anyway.It's worth noting that vaccines won't save you,if you are living in a trash heep.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckde.../#41e1fba1111a
    I just need one more tool,just one!

  9. #29
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    Wierdscience, please refrain from prohibited political comments, and making insults about people who constitute a clear majority of US citizens, most of whom are much better educated and rational than those with whom you apparently identify. I have so far resisted the urge nto report your posts, but my patience is wearing thin.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by PStechPaul View Post
    Wierdscience, please refrain from prohibited political comments, and making insults about people who constitute a clear majority of US citizens, most of whom are much better educated and rational than those with whom you apparently identify. I have so far resisted the urge nto report your posts, but my patience is wearing thin.
    Political comments?Where? And as to insults,how about you stop slinging them yourself?
    I just need one more tool,just one!

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