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OT: This is Very Scary News

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  • OT: This is Very Scary News

    Now that Evan is gone from the forum I felt that someone needed to start a thread about he new coronavirus. We have members all over the world and maybe by discussing it we can understand it better. It appears to me that it is much more of a problem than the bird flu that Evan started the "Scary News" thread about. Does anybody have anything to share regarding this virus? Sorry that I won't be able to tell you all kinds of medical things about it like Evan did but he was a lot smarter than I am in my humble opinion.





  • #2
    All I know is at first the odds seemed about 1:40 to 1:50 that if you caught it you were going to croak ---- also what I know is it's highly contagious, highly, all kinds of reports of just one person infecting 40 or 50 with not all direct contact or anything,,, yeah it's pretty serious and yeah its pretty scary....


    • #3
      Not good.

      However, seemingly much better odds than with bubonic plague or ebola, since I cannot see that the chinese government is providing super-duper care for those infected... Maybe they are and I don't know it.

      But if just average "bulk care" gives 40:1 odds, there are worse things floating around. That's not to minimize the issue, just an observation.

      Keep eye on ball.
      Hashim Khan


      • #4
        Let's all hope it acts like the cold/flu viruses and tapers off in warm weather. Since there is very little activity in Africa, South America or Australia this seems very likely.



        • #5
          hey, at least you have one

          Lots offered on the official sites. Of course you wonder how complete a picture that is and are we being managed. For example they are saying mask won't help citizens avoid it. Oh really? or is that just to make sure health care workers have enough. otoh, its unlikely other than speculation is going emerge from here, unless of course there is a lurking CDC Epidemiologist who comes forward.

          here's one of those speculative opinions....many countries lack the discipline to contain it. Including Canada. First thing they do is fight to fly home a few hundred people from the epicenter. Brilliant. Our Worm let national rail traffic grind to halt for week because of protesters blocking tracks....waffle waflle....not exactly the type to act decisively. Flights in from China, people are asked on a form if they're feeling well. I went China and around the time of SAR's and officials came on the plane in full enviro suits and took everyone's temperature, if you had a fever you (and possibly the plane load) were going to quarantine.....seems a little more proactive than asking if they feel ok.

          Keep in mind, 10 of thousands die each year in US from the flu. Most are elderly and infirm to begin with, however so are many that die from Covid19- over 80 the fatality rate is 70x that of a 40 year old. Cold comfort if you're over 80, but statistically speaking over 80 means you are at risk from a wide range of illness including the yearly flu.
          Last edited by Mcgyver; 02-26-2020, 05:40 PM.
          in Toronto Ontario - where are you?


          • #6
            You want scary news?
            Check your investments. Mine have gone down the toilette since the COVID 19 outbreak, especially the last two weeks.
            This has made me very sick.

            Don't get me wrong this is a very serious outbreak and I'm not making lite of the casualties it has already caused. Not sure what it will take to get it under control.
            Home, down in the valley behind the Red Angus
            Bad Decisions Make Good Stories​

            Location: British Columbia


            • #7
              I think the biggest issue is that there are not enough hospital beds to care for the sick. I don't know how many need to be hospitalized, but it seems like a lot. This virus does some nasty stuff to your lungs.


              • #8
                Originally posted by Mcgyver View Post
                Keep in mind, 10 of thousands die each year in US from the flu.
                Yes, but the flu has a mortality rate of less than .1%, while COVID-19 looks to be around 2.3%. And yes, a LOT more people get the flu, so the total numbers will be greater (well, for now anyway). There are other risk factors as well.
                Most people are really terrible at risk assessment. They worry excessively about flying and things like COVID-19, yet think nothing about texting while driving (which obviously is far, FAR greater risk). We are an irrational lot...
                Location: North Central Texas


                • #9
                  Perhaps worth adding - when this all started, I had several items that I had been considering purchasing from China, so I went ahead and ordered them on the reasonable chance that the supply chain gets interrupted. I always make sure I have sufficient ammo, etc. before elections, and even fill up the tanks when something happens that may cause a theoretical price increase within the fuel chain. There is always a short delay before people catch on, and I have saved lots of hassle and money by getting ahead of it.

                  SO, If you have anything in the queue that you really need, it might be a good idea to go ahead and get it done as panic alone can screw up supply. If you use dust masks in your work for example, you are surely too late already to restock. đŸ˜‰

                  Added - Damn, I just looked on Amazon and my stock of N-95 masks are apparently a goldmine, and the chit hasn't even hit the fan yet!
                  Last edited by Joel; 02-26-2020, 06:07 PM.
                  Location: North Central Texas


                  • #10
                    I stopped in Shangai last night, didn't get off the airplane, wore a surgical mask, plenty of hand washing.
                    From what I've been told secondhand from those that spoke with officials is that it is hell on the respiratory system. I'd say the vast majority of people in China have a compromised respiratory system due to smoking and horrible air quality. China also has a population which the majority are older people.
                    There's a very high survival rate, and compares to the common flu in the USA.
                    I believe that there's a lot of hysteria from the news media which makes money from stirring the pot. COV viruses have been around for a long time.
                    I don't recommend licking door knobs in China however.
                    This work trip I've spent time in South Korea as our flying is staged out of there to avoid staying in China. Everyone walks around with masks on, and the hotel checks your temperature every chance they get. It is clear the South Koreans take it seriously.
                    So there's a ton of conflicting information vs the actions being taken.


                    • #11
                      Alright, what's this "Covid-19" stuff? Is this just another term for "coronavirus? First time I've seen "covid-19."

                      Never mind. I see covid-19 is the disease, and coronavirus is the organism responsible.
                      Last edited by lynnl; 02-26-2020, 06:12 PM.
                      Lynn (Huntsville, AL)


                      • #12
                        Coronavirus is the general name for that type of virus (like influenza or Ebola), covid-19 is the specific strain (like H1N9)


                        • #13
                          We were joking around in the office today. Some quite in favour of being locked down for a fortnight and as our building has a LOT of foreign workers and also lots of movement around UK if companies do close down if someone gets infected then we have a high probability. What would be best is if we just didn't have to go to the office before an incident occurs but presenteeism rules. Anyway we decided we should start a special TV channel for people in quarantine - funded by adverts for facemasks and home shopping, featuring relevant programmes like Zombie Appocalypse, 13 Monkeys, etc.


                          • #14
                            I had a little bird, Its name was Enza. I opened the window, And in-flu-enza.

                            This reminds me a lot of the book and 1959 movie, On The Beach. It is coming. Don't know quite when. Can't do much about it. It just is what it is. Obviously it won't be as bad as OTB.

                            I read that masks alone don't make much difference. You need full coverage. And the mask needs to seal very well. The masks, they say, are most effective at keeping your germs from spreading. Shrugs.

                            If you are concerned that the markets are going down, consider leveraged bear index funds. They are a way to make money in that circumstance without the complexity of shorting, etc. They are available for different sectors - small and large cap, oil and gas, etc. Examples - FAZ, SKF, SEF, DUG, TZA. Look at how those have behaved over the past 5 trading days. There is no reason you should sit there and lose money while the market melts. But some of those funds are at a 3X multiplier. They are not a buy and hold - you need to watch them and get out of dodge quick on a reversal. There are comparable funds for bull markets. YMMV!


                            • #15
                              Ah yes.... market timing.

                              I make a lot of money on market timing.... as long as someone ELSE is doing it with the stocks THEY own.

                              The virus will do what it does. That's a given.

                              The "market" is all about what it MIGHT do, what people perceive, and is full of folks whose time horizon varies from market closing today, to 6 months out. They react to stuff on nearly a second-to-second basis, hoping to get ahead of whatever YOU are going to do.

                              Most of them really love it when folks get freaked out and call their brokers screaming "I can't stand it, get me OUT of there". A relative did that around 2008/2009.... She STILL has not recovered from it, because she was out of the market and missed the 2 or 3 days that the market jumped up afterward. But SOMEONE made a bundle on that decision of hers.
                              Last edited by J Tiers; 02-26-2020, 07:25 PM.

                              Keep eye on ball.
                              Hashim Khan