Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

OT: This is Very Scary News

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #46
    I looked for Evan's original "Scary news" thread and planned to resurrect the old thread but couldn't find it. It must be that when he left he really scrubbed this forum of everything he posted here, sadly.
    OPEN EYES, OPEN EARS, OPEN MIND

    THINK HARDER

    BETTER TO HAVE TOOLS YOU DON'T NEED THAN TO NEED TOOLS YOU DON'T HAVE

    MY NAME IS BRIAN AND I AM A TOOLOHOLIC

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by J Tiers View Post

      In reality, you paid me. And sold stock to me at a low.

      Buy and hold is always the best strategy unless civilization collapses, and then it won't matter much anyhow, so there is not a downside. If you COULD always buy on a low, and sell on a high, yes, you would make money. Many try, hardly any succeed.

      For gains that exceed many managed funds, and less hassle, just buy an "index fund" or three. You will know what your investment is worth, and you will incur fewer and smaller fees that suck away your gains.

      The "value" your stock has at any given moment is an almost completely imaginary number. It does not hurt you if it dips, it does not really help you if it rises, (but it looks nice). It represents the amount of money other people "think" they can make off that particular stock. The price is based on their "expectation".

      The ONLY time your stock value means anything real is when you want to sell some. Then it affects your return in cash, and it affects your capital gains tax.
      I couldn't agree more.
      Had he left his money where it was he would have most likely been sitting pretty. Cd's are basically a poor investment and never keep up with inflation.
      At least not at the pathetically low rates they offer now.

      JL................

      Comment


      • #48
        Originally posted by bborr01 View Post
        I looked for Evan's original "Scary news" thread and planned to resurrect the old thread but couldn't find it. It must be that when he left he really scrubbed this forum of everything he posted here, sadly.
        Although he may have gone through and deleted some of his posts, a member is not able to delete a thread, so I'm sure it's still around, somewhere.
        George
        Traverse City, MI

        Comment


        • #49
          There are three cases of Corona virus about 50km from us in Freiburg, Germany. We are four hours from northern Italy were they have the outbreak. I hope that this is in fact a media hype but in the financial arena it will be devastating I believe.
          Location: The Black Forest in Germany

          How to become a millionaire: Start out with 10 million and take up machining as a hobby!

          Comment


          • #50
            The actual numbers are out there if you know who to ask and where to look.

            To put things in perspective the mortality rates from other daily activities and more mundane illnesses far exceed what is happening with the COVID-19 outbreak. As I understand it globally more people died in traffic accidents in the last 24 hours than the total number of people who have died from COVID so far. And the daily workplace-death rate far exceeds the number of people dying from COVID at any time.

            **

            Basically this is just our yearly/semi-yearly plague outbreak clickbait-traffic-boost.

            Just like with swine flu, elboa, avian flu, Zika, various norrovirus outbreaks and the rest.

            Without the round the clock Trump impeachment news, traffic has taken a dive on the news-media outlets. So they latched onto this, hyped it up and it's had the effect of harming world economic markets. Just like the other outbreaks that threatened to wipe humanity off the map but somehow didn't. I do feel bad for those who have lost loved ones to the virus, but really it's an outbreak like all the rest and it too shall pass into history and three months from now we'll be discussing the latest scary news or political outrage.

            Comment


            • #51
              Originally posted by Captain I. Barton View Post
              the mortality rates from other daily activities and more mundane illnesses far exceed what is happening with the COVID-19 outbreak.
              Gee, really? Who knew...
              Why bother trying to contain potential pandemics - since something else can kill you. Why bother investigating plane crashes since they are FAR safer than the car ride to the airport.

              No, it won't wipe out mankind, but then again, I haven't heard a single actual news source even vaguely imply that. Anyone who claims it will is being ridiculous, anyone that claims it is no problem, is likewise being ridiculous (there have already been major repercussions). If some people overreact, that is on them (and their apparently marginal choices for media outlets, I suppose).

              What I did hear last night is that there are now more cases outside of China than inside, that it hit 7 more countries in one day (and that number will continue to climb), and that the number of cases in Italy went up 25% in a day, There is no vaccine to preclude infection (like there is with the flu), there are no antivirals to treat it, and there are a lot of unknowns. The current 'threat level' in the U.S. is low, and I would like to see it stay that way. Ignoring it would be a poor way to accomplish such a task.
              This is perhaps a wake-up call (and good practice) for the eventuality when the affecting agent IS more deadly.
              Location: North Central Texas

              Comment


              • #52
                Where I live Aids is very prevalent. Eighteen percent of the population has it and all three of my workers have it.My biggest fear is sitting in my truck and all Aids sufferers start with TB.My one guy last year had a cd4 count of 200. I thought he was a goner. Some ARV,s and six months later hes back with me and even getting fat.

                My point is medicine seems to sort all diseases out.
                Personally and I hope I dont get struck by lightning for saying this but the world needs a pandemic. We are going to kill ourselves somehow ,its just a matter of time,whether its global warming or running out of water ,we need some culling. Theres just too many of us.

                Comment


                • #53
                  Originally posted by Captain I. Barton View Post

                  Without the round the clock Trump impeachment news, traffic has taken a dive on the news-media outlets. So they latched onto this, hyped it up and it's had the effect of harming world economic markets. Just like the other outbreaks that threatened to wipe humanity off the map but somehow didn't. I do feel bad for those who have lost loved ones to the virus, but really it's an outbreak like all the rest and it too shall pass into history and three months from now we'll be discussing the latest scary news or political outrage.
                  It's all the media's fault....

                  Except if you really look into it China is a complete mess right now. They completely shut down so many cities (including Shenzhen for awhile) that shipping from China now is a complete rolling dumpster fire. Apple, the great 'Merican company and others have issues warnings on their outlooks. Combine that with JIT manufacturing and a disease with many unknowns I'll say I'm surprised investors stayed as confident as they had. We were already bordering on recession - one is long overdue. Even if coronavirus turns out to be nothing worse than a common cold (which I doubt .... you don't have your frontline workers suited up in gear that you would use to treat Ebola, or spray down entire public areas with bleach) the event itself coupled with China's reaction is the black swan event needed to kick things off.

                  In a just in time economy you can't just take out 1 month of production and say we will get it next month.





                  www.thecogwheel.net

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by J Tiers View Post

                    In reality, you paid me. And sold stock to me at a low.

                    Buy and hold is always the best strategy unless civilization collapses, and then it won't matter much anyhow, so there is not a downside. If you COULD always buy on a low, and sell on a high, yes, you would make money. Many try, hardly any succeed.

                    For gains that exceed many managed funds, and less hassle, just buy an "index fund" or three. You will know what your investment is worth, and you will incur fewer and smaller fees that suck away your gains.

                    The "value" your stock has at any given moment is an almost completely imaginary number. It does not hurt you if it dips, it does not really help you if it rises, (but it looks nice). It represents the amount of money other people "think" they can make off that particular stock. The price is based on their "expectation".

                    The ONLY time your stock value means anything real is when you want to sell some. Then it affects your return in cash, and it affects your capital gains tax.
                    I couldn't agree more.
                    Had he left his money where it was he would have most likely been sitting pretty. Cd's are basically a poor investment and never keep up with inflation.

                    JL................

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      How many of you have read"The Stand" by Stephen King.---Or "Swan Song" by McCammon? I'm a reader. A big time reader, and this thing scares the Hell out of me. Sars scared the Hell out of me. I live 70 miles north of Toronto, and they have the virus there. My mom is 99, and I really hope to live as long as she has.
                      Brian Rupnow

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by JoeLee View Post
                        Had he left his money where it was he would have most likely been sitting pretty. Cd's are basically a poor investment and never keep up with inflation.
                        Sitting pretty? Have you looked at the markets lately?

                        In prepartion for being out of the country for three months, he moved his money out of the volatile stock market to the safety of CDs. It was not as an investment to make money, it was to protect money, and provide piece of mind. That is a smart move in general, and especially in this circumstance. You don't want to be worrying about market meltdowns while on vacation.

                        The market in recent months has been substantially propped up by the fed. It has made a lot of people nervous.

                        Apple, for example, has been a great stock, and has made people vast sums of money. But why should I ride it down, day after day, as the global supply chain breaks down?

                        Some people want to keep their money in index funds that directly track the ups and downs of the market, that is their choice. Historically, it was complicated to make money from market downturns. That is no longer the case.

                        We also no longer live in a world where you need to "dial up" your broker and ask him to print and FAX you a stock chart.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          The demographics, so far, are seriously skewed. Fortunately, they do not mention Old Iron Disease as a risk factor. So we've got that going for us.

                          https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/
                          AGE DEATH RATE*
                          80+ years old 14.8%
                          70-79 years old 8.0%
                          60-69 years old 3.6%
                          50-59 years old 1.3%
                          40-49 years old 0.4%
                          30-39 years old 0.2%
                          20-29 years old 0.2%
                          10-19 years old 0.2%
                          0-9 years old no fatalities
                          COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:


                          *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.
                          PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE*
                          Cardiovascular disease 10.5%
                          Diabetes 7.3%
                          Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%
                          Hypertension 6.0%
                          Cancer 5.6%
                          no pre-existing conditions 0.9%
                          https://www.worldometers.info/corona...irus-symptoms/

                          80% of cases are mild

                          Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology has found that:
                          • 80.9% of infections are mild (with flu-like symptoms) and can recover at home.
                          • 13.8% are severe, developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath.
                          • 4.7% as critical and can include: respiratory failure, septic shock, and multi-organ failure.
                          • in about 2% of reported cases the virus is fatal.
                          • Risk of death increases the older you are.
                          • Relatively few cases are seen among children

                          I can't delete this empty table:

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by Glug View Post
                            In prepartion for being out of the country for three months, he moved his money out of the volatile stock market to the safety of CDs. It was not as an investment to make money, it was to protect money, and provide piece of mind. That is a smart move in general, and especially in this circumstance. You don't want to be worrying about market meltdowns while on vacation.
                            Why would being out the country nullify the long term advantage of investing in the stock market?

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              This entire problem may have a good result. Seeing the disruption, many companies may decide that they do not want to put "all their eggs in china", and may reopen factories outside of china, maybe even in the US.

                              Originally posted by Glug View Post
                              ........

                              Apple, for example, has been a great stock, and has made people vast sums of money. But why should I ride it down, day after day, as the global supply chain breaks down?

                              ...........
                              Why? Well, you do not have to, and if you would rather give your money to me, that's fine, please do not "ride it down". Sell it now, and let me buy it cheap so I can make more on it when I eventually sell.

                              But, there is a big question........What is the time you need/want to get cash for reasons totally unrelated to the state of the market?

                              If that is now, or soon, then by all means sell a bit sooner. You will need to sell less stock to get a certain amount of cash if you sell when prices are at a high. But, if your intent is not to move to cash, and you would just re-invest later, then selling now is a bad move, that will end up almost certainly losing you money vs not selling.

                              The "money" you "have" in stock is NOT MONEY.... it is not "money" until you sell, it is "imaginary money", and you do not really "have" it. You COULD "have" it if you sold right then, but not unless you sell. All that matters is the amount more that you can sell it for WHEN you want "actual money" vs what you paid for it (in "actual money"). That is always changing, and with decent stocks, will go generally up over time. But on any given day, it might not be as high as it was the day before, or as it will be next week.

                              Until you sell, the stock is just "imaginary money", the exact amount s always changing, up or down. It is better not to pay too close attention to how much "imaginary money" you "have" day to day, because the day to day price is based on what a bunch of "lemmings" think it might be worth a little while later.

                              The "lemmings" look for trends, and if the market drops, they freak and sell. In fact you cannot satisfy them, nothing does. If a company falls short of its earnings goals, they sell it, because it "failed to meet goals". But if the company BEATS its goals, they ALSO sell, because they figure there is less left for later. And if the company hits its goal exactly, they may sell because it did not do better.

                              You can try to be a "lemming" too, but you will be a "late lemming", they will all run first, and then you will hear about it and try to follow. But then you will not do as well as the other lemmings.

                              The market dropped like a stone in the '08 mess. I mentioned the relative who sold out as it fell. She managed to sell close to the bottom. Then it went up again, and she bought back in. But she sold low, and she bought AFTER the best couple days when it recovered all of a sudden. In the process, she took a bath on the deal, losing a ton.

                              Unless you are able to execute instantly, and are on the job watching the market every day, you will generally manage to do about the same... and lose money.

                              Historically, the market recovers. But you do not know when, and a recovery may occur quickly, often does. If you are not "in" that day, you lose out, and you end up paying money to me. The only way to BE "in" for sure, is to STILL be in, not to have sold at all.

                              Remember, the amount of "imaginary money" you have at any particular time does not matter until you need to convert some stock to actual money.

                              1601

                              Keep eye on ball.
                              Hashim Khan

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Use dollar cost averaging. Every week (or every day) purchase, say, $100 worth of stock, so you buy more shares when the price drops. When the market seems to be going up, maybe sell off $100 a day and put it into a 2% money market account. I have my IRAs in annuities which (AIUI) are set up not to lose value when the market drops.
                                http://pauleschoen.com/pix/PM08_P76_P54.png
                                Paul , P S Technology, Inc. and MrTibbs
                                USA Maryland 21030

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X