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OT: This is Very Scary News

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  • lynnl
    replied
    Who would'a thought one man could wreak so much mischief? Someone here today complained about parting off issues ...probably caused by Trump, huh?

    The last three or four years I've been watching my portfolio, and the market, more closely that ever before ...really on a near daily basis. The mental picture I've developed of the market is identical to huge flocks of birds, a scene familiar to most of us rural folks. The birds, tens of thousands, will settle down in a pasture or field, and after a while some unseen cause will flush them and they'll all take to the air. After a bit of flying around, in one coherent flock, after which they'll once again settle in the pasture, and after a while the same scenario will play out again.

    It would be nice if the market would just go up and up, in a never ending manner. Remember the hobo song, Big Rock Candy Mountain ?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqowmHgxVJQ


    I
    love that song.
    Last edited by lynnl; 02-28-2020, 02:04 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • loose nut
    replied
    Originally posted by Glug View Post

    Actually, the sitting around and isolating part is apparently the best way to keep this from spreading like crazy in the near term. Go to your shop and stay there.

    They also say this is going to come back again and again, like the cold or flu, you can get it multiple times. We can only hope it mutates into something more benign. If they develop a vaccine, it will be like the flu - only partially effective.

    This is not your garden variety "Corona" virus. Current numbers suggest it kills 8% of those age 70-79 and 15% 80+.

    I almost never get coughs and work out like crazy, so I am not worried about myself. But I am concerned about family and friends.

    Anyone here old enough to remember the 1919 Stanley Cup? It was cancelled due to the flu pandemic. One hockey player died. Those guys were pretty tough. Sometimes toughing it out isn't enough. The really weird thing about that one, the stronger your immune system, the more likely you were to die.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1919_Stanley_Cup_Finals
    It will come back repeatably just as the other version do and the flu etc.That's how diseases works. Working out may make you healthier and more able to resist it but your immune system gets stronger by "working" itself out by exposure to nasty crap that wants to kill you. Poor design.

    Anyone here that can remember the 1919 Stanley cup has more immediate problems then the corona virus, like imminent death due to being a really old fart.

    Leave a comment:


  • loose nut
    replied
    Originally posted by Excellent View Post

    Eh? So the outbreak of a highly contageous virus via the dismal incompetence of the ChiComs, and the resulting panic in the media, and subsequent mismanagement of further spread throughout the world, which leads to a preponderance of precautionary measures such as the cancellation of trade shows, shutting down of offices, closure of certain facilities, combined with major disruption to exports from China, the world's maufacturing plant, which all has the predictable effect of significant short-term downturns, and that is somehow "the Trump market crash"?

    Orange man bad!
    Maybe he didn't start the crash but his standard bumbling and mismanagement of the situation did make it far worse, hence the Trump market crash.

    Leave a comment:


  • PStechPaul
    replied
    Huge cuts to NIH and CDC, as well as misinformation, may have disastrous consequences.

    Leave a comment:


  • Excellent
    replied
    Originally posted by metalmagpie View Post
    the Trump market crash isn't over yet.
    Eh? So the outbreak of a highly contageous virus via the dismal incompetence of the ChiComs, and the resulting panic in the media, and subsequent mismanagement of further spread throughout the world, which leads to a preponderance of precautionary measures such as the cancellation of trade shows, shutting down of offices, closure of certain facilities, combined with major disruption to exports from China, the world's maufacturing plant, which all has the predictable effect of significant short-term downturns, and that is somehow "the Trump market crash"?

    Orange man bad!

    Leave a comment:


  • tomato coupe
    replied
    Originally posted by Glug View Post
    Sometimes the buying is large holders who are trying to support the price. Or it is the Fed supporting the market - Quantitative Easing. Or all sorts of other strategies.
    Quantitative Easing does not involve the Fed buying stocks.

    Leave a comment:


  • metalmagpie
    replied
    Originally posted by J Tiers View Post
    This entire problem may have a good result. Seeing the disruption, many companies may decide that they do not want to put "all their eggs in china", and may reopen factories outside of china, maybe even in the US.



    Why? Well, you do not have to, and if you would rather give your money to me, that's fine, please do not "ride it down". Sell it now, and let me buy it cheap so I can make more on it when I eventually sell.

    But, there is a big question........What is the time you need/want to get cash for reasons totally unrelated to the state of the market?

    If that is now, or soon, then by all means sell a bit sooner. You will need to sell less stock to get a certain amount of cash if you sell when prices are at a high. But, if your intent is not to move to cash, and you would just re-invest later, then selling now is a bad move, that will end up almost certainly losing you money vs not selling.

    The "money" you "have" in stock is NOT MONEY.... it is not "money" until you sell, it is "imaginary money", and you do not really "have" it. You COULD "have" it if you sold right then, but not unless you sell. All that matters is the amount more that you can sell it for WHEN you want "actual money" vs what you paid for it (in "actual money"). That is always changing, and with decent stocks, will go generally up over time. But on any given day, it might not be as high as it was the day before, or as it will be next week.

    Until you sell, the stock is just "imaginary money", the exact amount s always changing, up or down. It is better not to pay too close attention to how much "imaginary money" you "have" day to day, because the day to day price is based on what a bunch of "lemmings" think it might be worth a little while later.

    The "lemmings" look for trends, and if the market drops, they freak and sell. In fact you cannot satisfy them, nothing does. If a company falls short of its earnings goals, they sell it, because it "failed to meet goals". But if the company BEATS its goals, they ALSO sell, because they figure there is less left for later. And if the company hits its goal exactly, they may sell because it did not do better.

    You can try to be a "lemming" too, but you will be a "late lemming", they will all run first, and then you will hear about it and try to follow. But then you will not do as well as the other lemmings.

    The market dropped like a stone in the '08 mess. I mentioned the relative who sold out as it fell. She managed to sell close to the bottom. Then it went up again, and she bought back in. But she sold low, and she bought AFTER the best couple days when it recovered all of a sudden. In the process, she took a bath on the deal, losing a ton.

    Unless you are able to execute instantly, and are on the job watching the market every day, you will generally manage to do about the same... and lose money.

    Historically, the market recovers. But you do not know when, and a recovery may occur quickly, often does. If you are not "in" that day, you lose out, and you end up paying money to me. The only way to BE "in" for sure, is to STILL be in, not to have sold at all.

    Remember, the amount of "imaginary money" you have at any particular time does not matter until you need to convert some stock to actual money.
    You sound absolutely delighted to have had 10-15% of your net worth wiped out. Or more .. the Trump market crash isn't over yet.

    I think you're whistling past the graveyard.

    metalmagpie

    Leave a comment:


  • Glug
    replied
    Originally posted by loose nut View Post
    but if you sit around afraid to get on with your life then it's time to stick the barrel in your mouth and finish it.

    P.S. we had a corona virus pop up 30 miles from here BUT it was a different type. People forget Corona viruses are around us all the time now.
    Actually, the sitting around and isolating part is apparently the best way to keep this from spreading like crazy in the near term. Go to your shop and stay there.

    They also say this is going to come back again and again, like the cold or flu, you can get it multiple times. We can only hope it mutates into something more benign. If they develop a vaccine, it will be like the flu - only partially effective.

    This is not your garden variety "Corona" virus. Current numbers suggest it kills 8% of those age 70-79 and 15% 80+.

    I almost never get coughs and work out like crazy, so I am not worried about myself. But I am concerned about family and friends.

    Anyone here old enough to remember the 1919 Stanley Cup? It was cancelled due to the flu pandemic. One hockey player died. Those guys were pretty tough. Sometimes toughing it out isn't enough. The really weird thing about that one, the stronger your immune system, the more likely you were to die.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1919_Stanley_Cup_Finals

    Leave a comment:


  • CCWKen
    replied
    Also watch for sell-offs in the retail markets soon. There may be some looking to reduce inventory to bolster cash on hand for the long haul. I hope they don't panic. Factories will shut down. Goods and services will disappear altogether if there's no one producing new stock. We could be in a rough pickle soon. People will start hording and prices will skyrocket. I would keep several weeks of non-perishable food on hand. This could turn into a messy situation.

    Leave a comment:


  • loose nut
    replied
    Originally posted by brian Rupnow View Post
    How many of you have read"The Stand" by Stephen King.---Or "Swan Song" by McCammon? I'm a reader. A big time reader, and this thing scares the Hell out of me. Sars scared the Hell out of me. I live 70 miles north of Toronto, and they have the virus there. My mom is 99, and I really hope to live as long as she has.
    Brian this is not like the stand, if it was people would be dropping like fly's already. What kind of life is it to be scared to death all the time. Might get corona virus or nuclear war or global famine. Any of those might get us but if you sit around afraid to get on with your life then it's time to stick the barrel in your mouth and finish it. Back in the late 60's and 70's there where people spouted the end of the world is coming and everyone had to run for the mountains and dig a hole to live in. It hasn't happened yet and for those that did what run for the hills and hide what kind of life did they have, some for decades. You still have preppers crying the same thing today If something happens then I will deal with it then not now. I will probably die, will all the preppers, probably. No point ruining your life worrying about it.

    P.S. we had a corona virus pop up 30 miles from here BUT it was a different type. People forget Corona viruses are around us all the time now.

    Don't worry, be happy.
    Last edited by loose nut; 02-28-2020, 11:08 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • pinstripe
    replied
    This chart is an eye-opener. Buying and holding isn't always as straightforward as it seems.
    http://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytim...phic.html?_r=2

    If anyone knows of an updated version from a reputable source, I'd love to see it.

    Leave a comment:


  • bborr01
    replied
    The financial markets are definitely not liking this. Dow is down about a thousand points so far today and it's early.

    Leave a comment:


  • JoeLee
    replied
    Originally posted by CCWKen View Post

    Yep. The smart ones are staying or buying. Stock doesn't sell unless someone is buying. The "BIG" houses are going to make a bundle on the turn-around of this media-hyped crisis. I wish I had more free cash to pour into it. I might have to let some of my $900 gold go but it's seems too much of a bargain now. Besides, gold looks good too--So shinny.
    This has always been the best strategy unless your a trader. What was it that Warren Buffet said???? Buy when other s are fearful ? I have my shopping list ready.

    JL................

    Leave a comment:


  • Glug
    replied
    Originally posted by CCWKen View Post
    Stock doesn't sell unless someone is buying.
    Price without volume is meaningless. Do you ever watch realtime level 2 quotes, with the bid ask? It is interesting.

    Sometimes the buying is large holders who are trying to support the price. Or it is the Fed supporting the market - Quantitative Easing. Or all sorts of other strategies.

    Leave a comment:


  • CCWKen
    replied
    Originally posted by J Tiers View Post

    In reality, you paid me. And sold stock to me at a low.

    Buy and hold is always the best strategy unless civilization collapses, and then it won't matter much anyhow, so there is not a downside. If you COULD always buy on a low, and sell on a high, yes, you would make money. Many try, hardly any succeed.

    For gains that exceed many managed funds, and less hassle, just buy an "index fund" or three. You will know what your investment is worth, and you will incur fewer and smaller fees that suck away your gains.

    The "value" your stock has at any given moment is an almost completely imaginary number. It does not hurt you if it dips, it does not really help you if it rises, (but it looks nice). It represents the amount of money other people "think" they can make off that particular stock. The price is based on their "expectation".

    The ONLY time your stock value means anything real is when you want to sell some. Then it affects your return in cash, and it affects your capital gains tax.
    Yep. The smart ones are staying or buying. Stock doesn't sell unless someone is buying. The "BIG" houses are going to make a bundle on the turn-around of this media-hyped crisis. I wish I had more free cash to pour into it. I might have to let some of my $900 gold go but it's seems too much of a bargain now. Besides, gold looks good too--So shinny.

    Leave a comment:

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