OT - COVID-19 numbers

[Bob Engelhardt]

Some observations on the numbers at WorldOMeters: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

"Containment" usually means before-the-fact "Don't let it out", but in the cases of China and S. Korea, I think that they have contained it in the sense of having its spread under control (very low numbers of new cases). China has had it contained for more than a month. That means that its "closed cases" (recovered or dead) numbers should be valid. Of those closed cases the fatality rate is 4%. I think that this is a more realistic number than the 2% one hears from the experts.

Similarly, S. Korea has had it contained for 3 weeks and its fatality rate is 3%.

Nobody else of any size has it contained, but a few have succeeded at "mitigation". Meaning that they have changed the exponential growth rate to a more constant one.

Norway, Sweden, and Denmark have had a more-or-less constant new for 10 days / a couple of weeks.

Ireland has been off exponential for 3 days.

Germany, France, and Switzerland have been off 2 days, but it's really too soon to tell.

A number of countries off 1 day - they're really too soon to tell.

A lot of / most countries are still growing exponentially.

An interesting outlier in all this is India - it has only 425 (!) cases with pop of 1.3B - it's as big as China (with 81,000 cases), with 3x population density (crowding) & practically next door. I haven't heard that they have been serious about containment, like Taiwan, etc. It's probably poor reporting - I don't think that they have an especially efficient bureaucracy.

[Michael Edwards]

You lost me at China. Absolutely ZERO credibility with regards to numbers.

I look to South Korea because they have been good about testing and providing stats. If you don't have good testing AND stats, then the numbers are useless.... much like here in the US, insufficient testing means US numbers are bunk.

[PS4steam]

you know I get enough disinformation on the nightly news - what's your latest problem or success building a model, maybe I can give you hand with something for which I actually have knowledge and can share real facts.

Bob

[RB211]

Real numbers would be nice, also knowing exactly how this virus works, spreads, and what it does to your body would be even nicer. The world looks at temperature to determine if some one has it. I only had a fever for a few hours and it never returned. If healthy people are walking around spreading it without a clue, 80% will get it unless you flatten the curve somehow.

[OaklandGB]

I know what to do to prevent getting or giving the flu, so I have no comment on the flu or the hyper ventilating media. What I now am most concerned about are the "solutions" that will be proposed to "save us".

What I can predict, is that media industry's revenue and profits will soar as they are wholly dependent upon clicks, views, and subscriptions. I'm guessing record breaking levels about now.

Meantime, back to the garage shop, I have an idea for a quick link device for my garden tractor's mower deck. It is to replace the spring J pins that always jam up and bind while trying to align the deck to the lifting mechanism. The concept is more like a very small, vertically oriented, pintle hitch found on larger equipment. It is still just a concept but who knows.....

Have a great day all.

[J Tiers]

..... If healthy people are walking around spreading it without a clue, 80% will get it unless you flatten the curve somehow.

The probability is that between 60 and 90 percent of people WILL get it, according to the epidemiologists, apparently. That suggests that you will get it at some point.

There is NO particular interest in preventing that. Nobody seems to really believe that the virus will "go away" (well, at least one person is on record as saying that). The interest is in making as sure as possible that the number of people who have it at any given time is low enough that the hospitals do not get overwhelmed by the number who require to be hospitalized.

The hope seems to be that as many as possible DO get it (or get a vaccine), because, assuming that there is some level of immunity due to having had it, that will build up the "herd immunity" so that it no longer can spread easily and wildly.

The secondary interest is in finding a vaccine, again assuming that it is even possible to develop an immunity. Most viruses seem to allow an immunity so the probability of a useful vaccine seems to depend on the rapidity and type of mutations the virus develops..

What you are seeing, is approximately the same sort of thing that went through the population of South America when white folks showed up, with all sorts of novel diseases that the native population had never been exposed to. They did not like it any more than you do now.

[lakeside53]

Not just South America- North also... and most parts of the planet. NA native populations were decimated by smallpox and many other diseases far more lethal than convid-19. Even NZ (with a 5-6 month travel time from Europe) had a 75% reduction in Maori population in the few few decades after settlement.


We need an antibody test asap. If I've had it, then I get to wear a green armband and go to work or volunteer doing any needed job. As immunity rises we can get a bunch of people working instead of "everyone" hiding.

[Bob Engelhardt]

You lost me at China. Absolutely ZERO credibility with regards to numbers.

I hear that a lot, but I don't hear what China's numbers really are, or likely are. If they want to minimize their situation's seriousness, why were they reporting such high numbers a month ago?

I look to South Korea because they have been good about testing and providing stats. If you don't have good testing AND stats, then the numbers are useless.... much like here in the US, insufficient testing means US numbers are bunk.

The US reported numbers are useful, even if they aren't reporting the real number of cases. If the reported cases are growing at 20, 30, 40%, that tells you something. Applies everywhere.

[OaklandGB]

I've had a breakthrough and designed a 100% effective medical device to prevent spread and to cure the virus. The technical drawing is below.
Now, all we have to do is go out in the shop and build them!

[Bob Engelhardt]

you know I get enough disinformation on the nightly news - what's your latest problem or success building a model, maybe I can give you hand with something for which I actually have knowledge and can share real facts.

Bob

If you're getting disinformation on the nightly news, maybe you should stop watching it.

"...what's [my] latest problem or success building a model..."? "Building a model"? I'm not building models, whatever gave you that idea? As I said, I'm just passing along data from WorldOMeters.

If you have "real facts", we would be glad to see them. Your models, too, although one needs to be skeptical of models.

[Bob Engelhardt]

... If healthy people are walking around spreading it without a clue, 80% will get it unless you flatten the curve somehow.

Yes - flattening the curve is vital. Otherwise the 10%(?) of the 80% who need critical care will be SOL. The obese 80 year old with heart disease can kiss his ass goodbye. Well, he's probably dead even if the curve is flat.

[OaklandGB]

Media should be careful, using only percentages to express changes in an early sample can mislead. Example, 5 of something, going to 7, is a 40% increase. Sensational yes, gets massive clicks, views, and subscriptions yes, but not a particularly a large overall number. Without actual data for perspective, percent increases or decreases can be misleading.

Don't fry me, I'm just pointing out a fact.

[Bob Engelhardt]

...
The hope seems to be that as many as possible DO get it (or get a vaccine), because, assuming that there is some level of immunity due to having had it, that will build up the "herd immunity" so that it no longer can spread easily and wildly....

There's a formula for the percentage population with immunity to provide herd immunity: (R0 - 1)/R0. They're talking about an R-zero of 2 or so. Giving a required 50% overall immunity. I.e., 50% of the population gets the disease and recovers with immunity. Which is going to take a LONG time if the curve is flattened to any extent. Unless there's a vaccine.

[Tim-Bob]

We need an antibody test asap. If I've had it, then I get to wear a green armband and go to work or volunteer doing any needed job. As immunity rises we can get a bunch of people working instead of "everyone" hiding.

This is going to be critical if we want to have any semblance of an economy when this is done.

Also, given that the numbers of infected is most likely far below reality, it also stands to reason that the numbers of recovered and therefore immune/non-contagious is also far higher - a little ray of sunshine!!

[Michael Edwards]

The US reported numbers are useful, even if they aren't reporting the real number of cases. If the reported cases are growing at 20, 30, 40%, that tells you something. Applies everywhere.

Yes, it tells you they are testing more, but only a drop in the bucket of what is needed. In other words, statistically irrelevant.

On the other hand you have South Korea, which is testing enough to get statistically relevant data.

To take known bad data from a bunch of countries and lump it in with good data is not helpful for anything.

If we are going to cherry pick from bad data, might as well chose North Korea and everything looks great.


I agree with you that it is going to be a tough go to get to herd immunity.