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  • #16
    Originally posted by Bob Engelhardt View Post

    There's a formula for the percentage population with immunity to provide herd immunity: (R0 - 1)/R0. They're talking about an R-zero of 2 or so. Giving a required 50% overall immunity. I.e., 50% of the population gets the disease and recovers with immunity. Which is going to take a LONG time if the curve is flattened to any extent. Unless there's a vaccine.
    Lets assume they manage to miraculously "regulate" the infection rate to level that the intensive care can cope with:
    US has currently 45000 intensive care beds, maybe 30000 available for coronavirus cases with some extra capacity built and "loaned" from anesthetic units. Recovery in ICU takes maybe 1-2 weeks, lets assume 10 days. 11 million patients treated in ICU per year.
    IF coronavirus spreads equally to all age groups maybe 5% of infected need intensive care. 300 million population, 70% total infected, 11,5 million patients to ICU, -->need to delay this thing to 12 month misery. I doubt there is anyone left to pay the intensive care after one year with current crash course the economy has taken...

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    • #17
      Originally posted by lakeside53 View Post

      We need an antibody test asap. If I've had it, then I get to wear a green armband and go to work or volunteer doing any needed job. As immunity rises we can get a bunch of people working instead of "everyone" hiding.
      There is already some antibody tests available, accepting them to use might take some time. ie https://www.aidian.eu/uploads/Corona-flyer-Aidian.pdf
      I think everyone is too busy in trying to control the epidemic that antibody testing is not on top of the list.
      For controlling the epidemic the antibody test is problematic as it seem that the virus is already spreading before body is making the antibodies.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Michael Edwards View Post

        Yes, it tells you they are testing more, but only a drop in the bucket of what is needed. In other words, statistically irrelevant.
        ...
        So you think that the growth in US numbers is only due to increased testing? And that we should ignore them?

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        • #19
          The number of cases and fatality rates are currently meaningless

          Nobody knows how dangerous Covid 19 is because it appears nothing is being done to determine the number of cases. The body count is rather obvious, but as anyone with an inkling if statistics knows, you'd have to survey a random sample of a population to determine the current rates of infection. As people with symptoms are not being tested in many cases, clearly we do not know what to use as the denominator in the fatality calculation. There could we be a million Canadians with the virus, in which case the death rates no longer look quite so scary.

          I am NOT one the nut bars dismissing it, however it really bothers me that we are so ready to flush our economies without addressing this crucial component of the math, based on the over all population, how many people have it?


          .

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Mcgyver View Post
            The number of cases and fatality rates are currently meaningless

            Nobody knows how dangerous Covid 19 is because it appears nothing is being done to determine the number of cases. The body count is rather obvious, but as anyone with an inkling if statistics knows, you'd have to survey a random sample of a population to determine the current rates of infection. As people with symptoms are not being tested in many cases, clearly we do not know what to use as the denominator in the fatality calculation. There could we be a million Canadians with the virus, in which case the death rates no longer look quite so scary.

            I am NOT one the nut bars dismissing it, however it really bothers me that we are so ready to flush our economies without addressing this crucial component of the math, based on the over all population, how many people have it?

            I might be mistaken but Korea has done extensive testing probably covering 99% of all cases.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Bob Engelhardt View Post

              So you think that the growth in US numbers is only due to increased testing? And that we should ignore them?
              So you think that the growth in US numbers are statistically relevant?

              We do not know how many are infected due to piss poor testing.

              Any equation will yield false results if the input is false, that's how math works.

              Crap data in, crap data out.

              Once again, if you are looking for good data look at some where that is providing it.

              I think that the increase in testing in the US will be outpaced by the spread so we will not have good data until this is almost over.

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              • #22
                This is an interesting read on the huge casualty rate of going the herd immunity route.
                This article follows Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now, with over 40 million views and 30 translations. If you agree with this article, consider signing the corresponding White House petition…

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Michael Edwards View Post
                  You lost me at China. Absolutely ZERO credibility with regards to numbers.

                  I look to South Korea because they have been good about testing and providing stats. If you don't have good testing AND stats, then the numbers are useless.... much like here in the US, insufficient testing means US numbers are bunk.
                  The CCP's numbers are completely bogus, folks on the ground there are getting the word out -

                  https://youtu.be/b6PI91n2f9o?t=111

                  Pay attention to what they are saying about the second wave of cases that's going to hit and who they are laying the ground work to blame for it.
                  I just need one more tool,just one!

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by wierdscience View Post

                    The CCP's numbers are completely bogus, folks on the ground there are getting the word out -

                    https://youtu.be/b6PI91n2f9o?t=111

                    Pay attention to what they are saying about the second wave of cases that's going to hit and who they are laying the ground work to blame for it.
                    Yup, I have been watching those guys off and on for a few years.

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by MattiJ View Post
                      There is already some antibody tests available, accepting them to use might take some time. ie https://www.aidian.eu/uploads/Corona-flyer-Aidian.pdf
                      I think everyone is too busy in trying to control the epidemic that antibody testing is not on top of the list.
                      For controlling the epidemic the antibody test is problematic as it seem that the virus is already spreading before body is making the antibodies.
                      This guy https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching says the antibody test is close to rollout. It won't make a difference to spread but will help the economic gears start to roll when you know who is no longer able to be a carrier. Immune caregivers can breathe easier and people can work. Odds are there are a lot of people who had both mild and undiagnosed severe cases before it even broke here.

                      Location: Jersey City NJ USA

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                      • #26
                        Here in S Africa we have just had our president declare a national 21 day shut down. We have a very different scenario to USA.We have a population of 57million. WE have 3000 ICU beds. But most are already being used for other problems not corona related.
                        We also have the highest HIV rate in the world.In my province it is 18 percent.The majority of the population live in poverty.There is a huge inequality in my country ,one of the highest if not the highest in the world.The majority live in shacks and have no running water etc.

                        Our biggest fear at the moment is social unrest. How do you protect yourself in a small town when hundreds of marauding machete carrying hungry men come visiting to steal from you and your army is useless.
                        Yes we are very worried.

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                        • #27
                          Around here , the declared numbers of infections seem to be going up by a factor of 3 or so every couple days. That is, interestingly, correlated with the numbers I have seen of the rate of new infections from each existing one, which seems to be 3.

                          According to that, with no precautions, every single person in the US would have the virus in 30 to 50 days.
                          1601

                          Keep eye on ball.
                          Hashim Khan

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by J Tiers View Post
                            Around here , the declared numbers of infections seem to be going up by a factor of 3 or so every couple days. That is, interestingly, correlated with the numbers I have seen of the rate of new infections from each existing one, which seems to be 3.

                            According to that, with no precautions, every single person in the US would have the virus in 30 to 50 days.
                            Growth rate in US has been something like 38% per day on average last 4 days. Other countries have shown similar growth rate before restrictions.
                            Currently at 40000 cases so 40000*1.38^30 = 630 million in 30 days. Day 27 would bring 70 million new infections. Scary sh*t.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by ikdor View Post
                              This is an interesting read on the huge casualty rate of going the herd immunity route.
                              I am not a deneyer of facts, but find some of the assumptions used questionable data and pointing fingers is a fools game
                              your author said no action occurred until March , so I guess he did not read the NY Times in January before any deaths occurred here
                              https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/b...ronavirus.html

                              Rich

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                              • #30
                                We need an antibody test asap. If I've had it, then I get to wear a green armband and go to work or volunteer doing any needed job. As immunity rises we can get a bunch of people working instead of "everyone" hiding.
                                NO! NO! NO! One of the other things we do not yet know is whether you can still be a carrier even if you yourself are immune. An antibody test is an important step, but only one of several.
                                "A machinist's (WHAP!) best friend (WHAP! WHAP!) is his hammer. (WHAP!)" - Fred Tanner, foreman, Lunenburg Foundry and Engineering machine shop, circa 1979

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