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OT - COVID-19 numbers

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  • #31
    It is probably unreasonable to assume that the growth rate will continue at that pace, especially now that most of us are taking precautions, and the usual conditions for transmission have been largely eliminated, such as schools, restaurants, bars, churches, and other social gatherings. There are many people, such as myself, who are retired or self-employed or living alone, and otherwise have no need to be in close contact with many others. I typically go out only once or twice a week, and mostly for shopping. I have not had the flu or even a cold for probably 20 years or so since I moved back to this house, and I've been self-employed, often working from home, since 1989. I've also been taking at least 1000 mg Vitamin C for a long time, which has probably helped. And I've usually gotten the flu shot every year. Even without precautions, I would expect no more than half the population would be infected, but that's still plenty scary.
    http://pauleschoen.com/pix/PM08_P76_P54.png
    Paul , P S Technology, Inc. and MrTibbs
    USA Maryland 21030

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    • #32
      Originally posted by PStechPaul View Post
      It is probably unreasonable to assume that the growth rate will continue at that pace, especially now that most of us are taking precautions, and the usual conditions for transmission have been largely eliminated, such as schools, restaurants, bars, churches, and other social gatherings.
      Much true.
      I and Jerry were referring to unconstrained situation. Easy to see why restrictions are in place.

      What I wonder is: what we are going to do after 2 weeks?
      Can't really wait for vaccine, can't maintain the restrictions at current level either.
      Interesting times.. I just hope that I would be reading this from history book or watching tv documentary.

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      • #33
        So sorry to hear that it's going that bad Plunger. I can't imagine that scenario. I doubt that I'm prepared enough if it should happen here. Hope you come out of it OK.

        Dan
        At the end of the project, there is a profound difference between spare parts and extra parts.

        Location: SF East Bay.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by danlb View Post
          So sorry to hear that it's going that bad Plunger. I can't imagine that scenario. I doubt that I'm prepared enough if it should happen here. Hope you come out of it OK.

          Dan
          I hope we all come out okay. This has not happened but is a very real possibility. We have service unrests where mobs just burn everything. Its hard to understand the mentality. Burn the trains because they are late but the next day there is no train to take you to work..We also have cases of xenophobia where the most inhumane behavior comes out. Necklacing is one method where they put a tyre around your neck and burn you.I think the population are worried about what will happen because most civilians live from hand to mouth and to not work for three weeks is going to be rough.

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          • #35
            Plunger, get the hell out of that country the next opportunity that arises. Get your ass to the USA.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by PStechPaul View Post
              I would expect no more than half the population would be infected, but that's still plenty scary.
              Half the population at a 1% death rate would be 1.6 million... This virus has also gone thru many mutations. It is not the same virus that Asia saw, and it seems the US and Europe might have a more deadly mutation.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by polaraligned View Post
                Plunger, get the hell out of that country the next opportunity that arises. Get your ass to the USA.
                Better to go someplace more sensible......... Iceland, for instance.
                1601

                Keep eye on ball.
                Hashim Khan

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by mickeyf View Post

                  NO! NO! NO! One of the other things we do not yet know is whether you can still be a carrier even if you yourself are immune. An antibody test is an important step, but only one of several.
                  Then you just have to test for the presence of a live virus. Those guys can have red arm bands. Sure, there are cases like "typhoid Mary", but I'm betting they are rare. The reality is we have get back to work (any work, not just what we did prior) and we need some confidence in who's immune and who is not. Or we just give up and let it roll. Tough choices.

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by MattiJ View Post

                    I might be mistaken but Korea has done extensive testing probably covering 99% of all cases.
                    what does that mean? nothing. The tested 99% people who show up sick and complained. There could 1000x more sitting at home feeling they've got a bad cold. You don't know what percentage has it, and its a crucial bit of information that should be present given the decisions being made.

                    Growth rate in US has been something like 38% per day on average last 4 days.
                    And that means - growth rate of tested cases grew. Could even mean more test kits became available. Its meaningless unless you have a sense of the total cases. That can only be statistically compiled by testing the population at large. Randomly select 10,000 and tell them there's a $1,000 in it for them.

                    North America kills 45,000 on average every year through car accidents. That could easily be stopped by banning cars. We don't because collectively we feel the benefits they provide are worth it. So....if this is going kill 100,000,000, lock it down and post a sentry on every block. If its going to kill 10,000, like we tolerate automobile deaths, get on with it and don't drag the economy down to that of the Sudan.

                    Lots of non medical nutbars think they have the answers. I don't, but there's imo a complete lack of leadership in asking the right questions
                    Last edited by Mcgyver; 03-23-2020, 08:24 PM.
                    .

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Mcgyver View Post

                      what does that mean? nothing. The tested 99% people who show up sick and complained. There could 1000x more sitting at home feeling they've got a bad cold. You don't know what percentage has it, and its a crucial bit of information that should be present given the decisions being made.
                      Koreans have worked aggressively to contain the disease, not just limit it. Everyone in any sort of contact with the sick ones needs to be tracked down and tested.

                      200 000 tests and 9000 infected so far. Lately they still run around 10000 test per day and get only about 100 new cases. US runs 50k tests daily and 10k is positive. Korean coverage is really good with those numbers and US coverage is not even enough for guessing.

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                      • #41
                        And remember they have currently 1% case fatality thanks to:
                        South Korea's widespread testing leads mild or asymptomatic cases to be identified so the proportion of dying goes down. Moreover, the infected population in the South Korea has a unique profile. Most of the country's infections are linked to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus and most of its members are young women. Statistics show that the virus is most deadly among older generations and men. So the death rate in South Korea is lower than other countries

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                        • #42
                          On a positive note, the quarantining is likely to have a good effect on all the other communicable diseases, like the common cold, flu, tuberculosis, mono etc. So for the year it might be concievable that the death rate from communicable diseases actually falls. One can hope, and do everything you can to stay healthy.

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Mcgyver View Post

                            North America kills 45,000 on average every year through car accidents. That could easily be stopped by banning cars. We don't because collectively we feel the benefits they provide are worth it. So....if this is going kill 100,000,000, lock it down and post a sentry on every block. If its going to kill 10,000, like we tolerate automobile deaths, get on with it and don't drag the economy down to that of the Sudan.
                            The trouble is, COVID-19 seems sadly likely to kill on the order of 10,000 Americans even though we are pulling out all the stops. If we let off the restrictions, "getting on with it" means we could easily add a zero or two to that number. If we let off the restrictions on car safety, we get perhaps and extra 5,000 deaths per year. Car accidents do not spread 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-..., like COVID does. Look at the trajectory in Italy. They are a first world country. They have had over 6,000 COVID deaths. I doubt anyone there is feels the need to "get on with it" and loosen restrictions. The only way to get this disease under control is to stop the exponential growth of the number of cases. Given the lack of testing, vaccines, and treatments, the only way to retard the exponential growth is to restrict social contact to break the 1-2-4-8- chain of spread.

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                            • #44
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                              John Titor, when are you.

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                              • #45
                                Seems vitamin D is crucial to survival, somthing to do with epithelial cells and so on, either way chucking a few down your neck daily isn’t a big ask, we’re all short of it in the U.K., it’s practically continuously raining where I live so sunshine is out of the question.
                                was it not Abraham Lincoln who said , lies damd lies and statistics, sounds right.
                                mark

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