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  • #61
    Originally posted by Dan Dubeau View Post

    Check again. US have been posting roughly 30k NEW cases a day for almost all of april.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    Well again, on that page you posted, I see under the heading "New Cases" the number +5,719 for the USA.
    For "World": I see +44,803 (new cases). When I had looked at that site, as posted by Norman Bain, that figure (for world) had been +26,8xx, which I assume would've been before the last update that you (Dan) posted. I don't recall the corresponding USA figure I saw, but it was considerably less than the 26,8xx figure.

    Am I mis-reading something? Are new cases depicted some place other than the "New Cases" column?
    Last edited by lynnl; 04-25-2020, 01:01 PM.
    Lynn (Huntsville, AL)

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    • #62
      Originally posted by ikdor View Post
      I came across this graph which is a bit dated by now...
      You can find the current version of that chart (and many others) on this page https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

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      • #63
        Originally posted by lynnl View Post

        Well again, on that page you posted, I see under the heading "New Cases" the number +5,719 for the USA.
        For "World": I see +44,803 (new cases). When I had looked at that site, as posted by Norman Bain, that figure (for world) had been +26,8xx, which I assume would've been before the last update that you (Dan) posted. I don't recall the corresponding USA figure I saw, but it was considerably less than the 26,8xx figure.

        Am I mis-reading something? Are new cases depicted some place other than the "New Cases" column?
        The new cases column on the main page is updated as the #'s come in, and with no rhyme or reason to it. It's not a cumulative daily #. It's actually a quite useless column really as it doesn't directly correspond to the daily cases, and every time you click the link it could be a different #. It's more of a "new cases since you last checked" kinda column. For the total daily # of new cases, refer to the graphs (daily new cases) on each country's page. The US seems to be holding around 30k/day, while some countries are in a decline, and some are just starting to take off and climb.

        It's not really a complete compilation of the actual "real" data (does anybody actually have that....?) but it's been a consistent and verifiable collection of what data we do have that is published to the general public and good for a day to day relative comparison.

        Of note, is that Italy appears to be over the hump, and is posting more active recoveries than new daily cases. France is starting to crest as well, and Iran is well down the curve towards recovery. I point those out for some good news, because the mass media made specific hysteria over those countries in the beginning, but I haven't heard the same level of coverage regarding their declining case and roads to recovery. It's good to be positive and look forward towards the future. Cheers, stay safe and healthy.

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        • #64
          Originally posted by Dan Dubeau View Post
          The new cases column on the main page is updated as the #'s come in, and with no rhyme or reason to it. It's not a cumulative daily #. It's actually a quite useless column really as it doesn't directly correspond to the daily cases, and every time you click the link it could be a different #. It's more of a "new cases since you last checked" kinda column. For the total daily # of new cases, refer to the graphs (daily new cases) on each country's page.
          The new cases are cumulative throughout the day. The number of new cases is appended to the graph at the "end" of the day, and the new cases column is reset to zero.

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          • #65
            You can click the "yesterday" tab to see the total for that day, etc.
            1601

            Keep eye on ball.
            Hashim Khan

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            • #66
              Won't "new cases" go up in proportion to testing? I hear testing in the USofA is on the increase.

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              • #67
                Originally posted by CalM View Post
                I hear testing in the USofA is on the increase.
                It's been about 100,000 tests per day since mid March.

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                • #68
                  Originally posted by tomato coupe View Post
                  It's been about 100,000 tests per day since mid March.
                  Not to worry, we'll have everyone tested by 2029.
                  1601

                  Keep eye on ball.
                  Hashim Khan

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                  • #69
                    Originally posted by CalM View Post
                    Won't "new cases" go up in proportion to testing? I hear testing in the USofA is on the increase.
                    At the risk of getting tangled in some layman's statistics, I do agree that when US gets testing up to speed there will be detected a much larger increase in infected persons.

                    The US counts (thus far historically) are only of persons ill enough to present at a hospital (or in nursing home) with symptoms significant enough them to be tested.

                    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

                    On the summary at top of the linked page there is a count of deaths as a percentage of the total cases with an outcome (got better or died). As of today that number is 38%. Such a high number is way above the 2% to 3% most other countries with more complete testing are seeing. Hence if we calculate back (deaths/0.03) (53k/0.03) we get 1.7m cases that have thus far had an outcome. Extrapolate that to the cases vs casesWithOutCome and then the total cases in US is somewhere near 10m or around 2.8% of the population.

                    The preliminary outcome of NY general population screening (via random antibody test of persons on the streets) is that 15% of New Yorkers have been infected.
                    Last edited by Norman Bain; 04-25-2020, 04:54 PM.

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                    • #70
                      Originally posted by Norman Bain View Post
                      On the summary at top of the linked page there is a count of deaths as a percentage of the total detected cases. As of today that number is 38%. Such a high number is way above the 2% to 3% most other countries with more complete testing are seeing.
                      I think you're misreading something.

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                      • #71
                        Originally posted by tomato coupe View Post
                        I think you're misreading something.
                        Sorry; latest on the link is 32% not the 38% I used. Has been well over 40% for quite a while. Reduction either means better outcomes or the testing is being applied to more that recover.

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                        • #72
                          Originally posted by Norman Bain View Post
                          Sorry; latest on the link is 32% not the 38% I used. Has been well over 40% for quite a while. Reduction either means better outcomes or the testing is being applied to more that recover.
                          The world figure is 20%. The 32% figure for the U.S. is on the high side, but not unprecedented. The next 4 countries, based on number of cases, are:
                          Spain 19%
                          Italy 29%,
                          France 34%
                          Germany 5%

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                          • #73
                            My guess is that the noise level of the data far surpasses the meaningful information.
                            Lynn (Huntsville, AL)

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                            • #74
                              Originally posted by tomato coupe View Post
                              The new cases are cumulative throughout the day. The number of new cases is appended to the graph at the "end" of the day, and the new cases column is reset to zero.
                              Interesting. I've checked it a couple times before when there'd been a number in the new cases column, then checked later the same day and it had been empty again. It would make sense that it would be the daily cumulative number as the data rolls in. This has happened more than once, so I just figured something wasn't working as intended. Just checked again now, and it's showing the running total.

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                              • #75
                                At this moment, the "now" column has 245 new cases. Selecting "yesterday" shows +35,419 new cases for the day, 10,868 of which are in New York State. Deaths for the day are 2,065, with 617 in New York State.
                                1601

                                Keep eye on ball.
                                Hashim Khan

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