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  • #91
    Originally posted by PStechPaul View Post

    I also wonder why I have not had the flu or even a cold for probably 20 years. During that time, since July 1999 actually, I moved into my house where I live alone, and during the winter most of the house is only sparsely heated, often to 45-55F, and even in the bedroom where I spend most of my indoor time, it is usually 60-67F. Also, I have been self-employed, mostly working from home, since 1989, and since 2010 my orthopedic problems caused me to stop playing volleyball almost daily, which would be one of my only activities where I would be among many other people. And most of them would be relatively healthy, more so than in an office environment where people often come in sick. And another factor might be that I have environmental allergies which constantly give me a runny nose, so my mucous membranes may be more active than those of most people.

    Be careful about "spitball" ideas, though. They may be toxic!
    You have been practicing "social distancing" already.
    I though I was immune to most commong bugs... oh boy I found out I was wrong when your daughter started daycare.
    I was more sick in the first 2 years than previous 3 decades combined. Appears I was just good at avoiding the diseases before but when the kiddo goes to kindergarden to eat snot with others and after a day drools to your face you can say goodbye to that

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    • #92
      When trying to see a "trend" I tend not to look at the deaths figure as the deaths seem to lag the "new cases" by quite a bit.

      The rise in "Daily New Cases in USA" have stopped the mad rush ever higher but they are far from seriously "ticking downward" as yet.

      To the question of "Is the US testing enough"? My opinion is "not yet given the size of the outbreak."

      My wide reading on the topic does indicate that there is a lot of effort being applied toward bringing a range of tests to the wider population. The outbreak has been large in the US; my feeling is that testing should not be considered "getting there" till testing has been performed on at least 10% of the population in states where there have been 100+ deaths per million.





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      • #93
        Originally posted by tomato coupe View Post
        I see an article that briefly mentions Italy and China, but is overwhelmingly about the situation in various locations throughout the U.S. I would not consider that to be "breathlessly comparing Italy and the US."
        You read past the headline, most people don't. The headlines are crafted the way they are for a reason, in this case to stoke fear. The breathless part comes from the fact that the very same headline was repeated across the entire media for several days by all the major outlets.
        I just need one more tool,just one!

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        • #94
          Originally posted by wierdscience View Post

          You read past the headline, most people don't. The headlines are crafted the way they are for a reason, in this case to stoke fear. The breathless part comes from the fact that the very same headline was repeated across the entire media for several days by all the major outlets.
          The media sucks in many ways.

          It is better than the alternative, however.
          1601

          Keep eye on ball.
          Hashim Khan

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          • #95
            Originally posted by J Tiers View Post

            The media sucks in many ways.

            It is better than the alternative, however.
            It's just they are never held to account for all the stunts and downright lies they tell, impartiality is so passe -

            A pair of secondhand store scrubs and a couple cameras can make some photographers a lot of money.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuyQvEMsOPQ
            I just need one more tool,just one!

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            • #96
              Some news media issue corrections, retractions, and clarifications. Others usually double down or just change their stories to match certain prevailing and currently accepted "facts", or what most of their readership want to hear. Why? Ratings, of course.
              http://pauleschoen.com/pix/PM08_P76_P54.png
              Paul , P S Technology, Inc. and MrTibbs
              USA Maryland 21030

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              • #97
                Originally posted by wierdscience View Post
                You read past the headline, most people don't. The headlines are crafted the way they are for a reason, in this case to stoke fear. The breathless part comes from the fact that the very same headline was repeated across the entire media for several days by all the major outlets.
                In the case of that particular article, the headline was warranted, as it marked a major milestone -- the U.S. had just surpassed Italy as the country with the most coronavirus deaths. That is a newsworthy event by any standard.

                In the general case, you can't blame the media for people's unwillingness to read beyond the headlines.

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                • #98
                  Originally posted by tomato coupe View Post
                  In the case of that particular article, the headline was warranted, as it marked a major milestone -- the U.S. had just surpassed Italy as the country with the most coronavirus deaths. That is a newsworthy event by any standard.
                  .......
                  Which is actually quite silly. Italy is 5.5 x smaller in population, so the deaths per million were then very much higher in Italy, and still are about 2.6 x higher. You may as well compare the raw number of traffic deaths per year in US vs Luxembourg. Population cannot be ignored if you want any sort of sensible comparison.

                  The main problems with media is that reporters are uneducated in the subjects they cover, and they make a mess of it. And that they always seem to make a mess of it in a way that plays to the population. Vinegar, if spilled as "acetic acid" would be termed a "dangerous acid" (glacial acetic is not such nice stuff, but.....) even if in diluted form.

                  Expecting reporters to understand statistics is probably up there with finding unicorns.

                  We need not even mention the probable fact that china substantially exceeds either country. There are reports that around 21 million cell phone numbers in the areas of the outbreak became unused in the last few months. Many of those might be workers who were sent home from factories, but likely not all.
                  Last edited by J Tiers; 04-26-2020, 10:39 PM.
                  1601

                  Keep eye on ball.
                  Hashim Khan

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    Originally posted by J Tiers View Post

                    Which is actually quite silly. Italy is 5.5 x smaller in population, so the deaths per million were then very much higher in Italy, and still are about 2.6 x higher. You may as well compare the raw number of traffic deaths per year in US vs Luxembourg. Population cannot be ignored if you want any sort of sensible comparison.
                    Did you read the article? It clearly points out the population difference in the third sentence.

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                    • Originally posted by tomato coupe View Post
                      Did you read the article? It clearly points out the population difference in the third sentence.
                      You understand that, I understand that..... Do you think most people realized what that meant?

                      I strongly doubt it. They saw that headline and what it meant to them is "the US is now in worse shape than Italy".

                      Just as I said.... traffic deaths in US vs Luxembourg.....(yes, excluded middle intentional).
                      1601

                      Keep eye on ball.
                      Hashim Khan

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by J Tiers View Post
                        You understand that, I understand that..... Do you think most people realized what that meant?
                        Yes, I think most people have no trouble understanding what was written:

                        "In just six weeks, more than 20,400 people have died from COVID-19 in the United States, according to Johns Hopkins University. Italy, with a population less than one-fifth that of the U.S., has reported about 19,500 fatalities."

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                        • You missed the point..... or you are just messing with me.

                          I would bet that most, after reading (being pre-programmed by) the headline, even with the disclaimer (or because of it) would still think we were much worse off in death rate, instead of better.

                          Of course that is not true, and still is not true.

                          Remember, people here are afraid of ebola, which has not killed very many people here, but think nothing of driving or riding in, a car, which has a known death rate per year far higher. And they buy lottery tickets, with an infinitesimal chance of winning, or smoke, which kills far more here than ebola.

                          And, as the clincher, a LOT of people will comment that they are "not good at math", which if true, puts them behind the 8-ball in terms of "getting it". Possibly, they may even view the relation as inverted... that the comment about Italy being smaller somehow makes the fact that we are equal in deaths WORSE.

                          Bah....no point in arguing it, just check out how regular people interpret this stuff. The same people who smoke, buy lottery tickets, and so forth.
                          Last edited by J Tiers; 04-26-2020, 11:55 PM.
                          1601

                          Keep eye on ball.
                          Hashim Khan

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by J Tiers View Post
                            You missed the point....
                            Your point seems to be that you think people are, in general, too stupid to understand simple statements in the article. I disagree.

                            Comment


                            • Sort-of...... not the "simple statements"

                              I think most people are not generally savvy enough to put the statements together and spot the IMPLICATIONS of them when they are considered in combination. That's a whole different thing from "understanding simple statements" as I am sure you are aware, no matter how much you try to "wiggle around it".

                              I am confident that most would understand the idea if it were pointed out. I doubt not the intelligence, but the mental orientation to automatically take the statements and examine them for what they mean in context and combination with each other. "Logical thinking" if you like to call it that.

                              There is evidence. A lot of people consistently vote against their own best interest, and yet are convinced that they are doing the right thing for themselves. Logical thinking there would say otherwise.

                              You are sounding more like a lawyer, but I understand you are actually a physicist. So still a lawyer, but with a different legal system and laws
                              1601

                              Keep eye on ball.
                              Hashim Khan

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by J Tiers View Post
                                but think nothing of driving or riding in, a car, which has a known death rate per year...
                                Vehicular deaths are my 'go to' example when comparing risk factors, as they kill so very many people when compared to most things that people gravely fear (often irrationally).

                                In the entirety of 2019, 38,800 people died in the US from vehicle crashes (NSC).
                                In less than a month and a half, COVID-19 has killed in excess of 55,000 Americans, and that number is climbing steadily every day.
                                Unsettling by any metric.

                                Unfortunately, the US has well over 25% of the total deaths worldwide so far, and represents 4.25% of the worlds population. And yes, of course the worldwide figure is going to continue to climb for a long time to come.
                                China has 18.4% of the world population, and while I do NOT believe the 4,600 total death figure, I do believe it is substantially lower than the US deaths. Why? - because they quickly resorted to incredibly and shockingly draconian tactics to arrest the problem.
                                Strange times these be...
                                Last edited by Joel; 04-27-2020, 12:54 AM. Reason: Corrected year of accident data
                                Location: North Central Texas

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