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  • Originally posted by J Tiers View Post
    I think most people are not generally savvy enough to put the statements together and spot the IMPLICATIONS of them when they are considered in combination.
    Wow, you sure have a low opinion of people.

    Comment


    • From the CDC, leading causes of death for 2017:
      • Heart disease: 647,457
      • Cancer: 599,108
      • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
      • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
      • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
      • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
      • Diabetes: 83,564
      • Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
      • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
      • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
      If the protective measures are successful, Covid 19 deaths will probably end up being 2-3 times what they are now, so maybe 150,000. About 3 times the figure for the flu. Still a lot less than the top two, and about the same as accidents.

      [edit] I thought gun violence was a much higher cause of death, but it appears to be "only" about 13,000 per year in the US. Death from motor vehicle incidents is about three times that.
      Last edited by PStechPaul; 04-27-2020, 01:44 AM.
      http://pauleschoen.com/pix/PM08_P76_P54.png
      Paul , P S Technology, Inc. and MrTibbs
      USA Maryland 21030

      Comment


      • People tend to forget that the "fairly low" number of cases and deaths are what happened when we have been actively trying to keep the number of cases and deaths down to the minimum possible.

        What we have would definitely not be the case if there were zero precautions taken. We'd have a much larger problem. But a surprising number of people do not understand,that, or at least do not stop to think about it.

        Originally posted by tomato coupe View Post
        Wow, you sure have a low opinion of people.
        Not at all.

        But I DO have quite decent powers of observation. What you term a "low opinion", is simply the result of seeing what people do. It does not make me think people are stupid, nor does it make them "inferior".

        It is the result of people being good at different things. People who are not familiar with statistics, and/or not "good at math", are far less likely to "connect the dots" and realize that a large and a small country with the same number of deaths from a disease do not have the same level of problem. They are simply not used to looking at things that way. They are used to "leaving that stuff to scientists".

        The degree of "scientific savvy" that the average person has is surprisingly low. This is something that comes from putting "scientists" on a pedestal as being "the big brains", doing things that average people cannot understand. That picture has been ingrained by the various media, as well as social pressure, and is a problem.
        Last edited by J Tiers; 04-27-2020, 02:51 AM.
        1601

        Keep eye on ball.
        Hashim Khan

        Comment


        • Ask someone to choose the better deal - $0.99/each or four for $3.00. Or 29 cents each versus 3 for 99 cents.
          http://pauleschoen.com/pix/PM08_P76_P54.png
          Paul , P S Technology, Inc. and MrTibbs
          USA Maryland 21030

          Comment


          • Originally posted by J Tiers View Post
            People tend to forget that the "fairly low" number of cases and deaths are what happened when we have been actively trying to keep the number of cases and deaths down to the minimum possible.

            What we have would definitely not be the case if there were zero precautions taken. We'd have a much larger problem. But a surprising number of people do not understand,that, or at least do not stop to think about it.
            Exactly. The number of deaths is "low" because of the actions taken. Also be careful when reading reports about other countries. For example, almost no schools officially closed in Australia. The federal government insisted that schools remain open, and only a small number of private schools closed. A reporter in another country may say that Australia reduced their COVID-19 deaths to almost zero without closing schools. The reality is that we just had a couple of weeks of holidays, and attendance for the weeks leading up to the holidays was as low as 5% in some schools. State governments asked parents to keep their children at home if possible.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by PStechPaul View Post
              From the CDC, leading causes of death for 2017:
              • Heart disease: 647,457
              • Cancer: 599,108
              • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
              • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
              • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
              • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
              • Diabetes: 83,564
              • Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
              • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
              • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
              If the protective measures are successful, Covid 19 deaths will probably end up being 2-3 times what they are now, so maybe 150,000. About 3 times the figure for the flu. Still a lot less than the top two, and about the same as accidents.

              [edit] I thought gun violence was a much higher cause of death, but it appears to be "only" about 13,000 per year in the US. Death from motor vehicle incidents is about three times that.
              Yeah, really! They should start taking cars away from people. I'm surprised Califuny allows it. Those murderous thug owners are vicious. I was just watching the morning local news up in the big-city where two cars and a motorcycle were involved in an accident. The guy on the motorcycle was killed. The three vehicles were the only ones on the road at the time. WTH?

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Joel View Post
                ...
                Unfortunately, the US has well over 25% of the total deaths worldwide so far, and represents 4.25% of the worlds population. And yes, of course the worldwide figure is going to continue to climb for a long time to come.
                ...
                That statistic by Joel should be seen as sobering.

                The disease is very contagious and jumps out in groups. For example, here in Australia we had the case of a couple who came in from the US on 6th March; they attended a wedding that soon became reported in the news and the official statistics as the "Stanwell Tops Wedding Cluster". Essentially 38 people became infected directly from that source.

                My feeling is that "social distancing alone", when there are many new cases occurring, cannot allow a return of the masses to workplaces, go shopping and the like. There is no way that you can be confident that your workmate is not asymptomatic and has not touched the door knob on the way to the bathroom.

                The Australian borders have been closed for a while. Stay at home, unless reason is essential, is in place. New cases are <20 per day for a population of 25 million. US has 330 million; should be at around 264 new cases per day by now, not the 26,000 being reported each day.

                Early on Australia had an issue big time with Chinese students returning for the start of the university year. We also had lots of arrivals from Italy and Iran plus several cruise ship debacles. For me the Australian government moved too slow and we got to where we went; was obvious, just by following the news in January, there was going to be a global spread.

                Australia is testing at rate of 13k per day now; that to pickup and contain the new 20 cases. I am hopeful that if Australia and New Zealand continue on the current trajectory we will have a bio secure zone that will be the envy of the world. I am hearing that NZ is considering offering a NZ passport to any person with $50M to bring with them.

                Comment


                • Numbers are in from Italy

                  https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coro...april_2020.pdf

                  It looks like it REALLY SUCKS to get old.

                  Oh well, That's water under the bridge. ;-)

                  Comment


                  • Was reading about the virus, and found a couple interesting things.....

                    While many, even most people who go on ventilators do not survive, those who DO survive may come off the ventilator and go right onto kidney dialysis. It seems that quite a lot of (I don't have the percentage) people with serious Covid cases have permanent kidney damage that destroys function.

                    As if that was not enough, now there are apparently serious doubts that having recovered confers any immunity. It is being suggested that the best to be hoped for may be just to have workable antibodies which will reduce your chances of having a serious case "when" you get it again.

                    EDIT: if that is true, then there will be no vaccine, you can just forget about that idea. And "herd immunity" will not occur. In that scenario, 100% of everyone will get the disease, and eventually even those who survived will get it the 4th, or 14th time, and by then may be older and not capable of fighting it off.

                    That would put a priority not on vaccines, but on drugs that help the body get rid of the infection, anti-viral drugs. IMO that should be a priority anyway. There apparently are three or four that show promise in that way. /EDIT

                    As far as deaths from the virus, there has apparently been a significant increase of all deaths above the expected numbers in many areas, even after all the "assigned-to-Covid" deaths are removed from the total. Totals may be close to double the expected number. This suggests that there may be un-counted deaths that are actually "from Covid".

                    Some may be totally unrelated to Covid. A certain number of those deaths may result indirectly from Covid, such as people who cannot, or are afraid to, go to the doctor for some other ailment because of either fear of catching Covid there, or because the doctors are busy. Ailments such as heart trouble, etc. These people may end up dead of their other condition from lack of treatment, due to Covid, but not directly from Covid.

                    But it seems likely that there are deaths from Covid, directly, which are not counted because they occur outside the hospital, and were never diagnosed. They n=may be ascribed to whatever effect was caused by the undiagnosed Covid, pneumonia, organ failure, etc.

                    And there is still the mysterious 21 million canceled cell phones in the affected areas of china......odd, since you apparently HAVE TO HAVE a cell phone to exist. They seem to be used for everything.
                    Last edited by J Tiers; 04-29-2020, 01:47 AM.
                    1601

                    Keep eye on ball.
                    Hashim Khan

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Norman Bain View Post

                      That statistic by Joel should be seen as sobering.

                      The disease is very contagious and jumps out in groups. For example, here in Australia we had the case of a couple who came in from the US on 6th March; they attended a wedding that soon became reported in the news and the official statistics as the "Stanwell Tops Wedding Cluster". Essentially 38 people became infected directly from that source.

                      My feeling is that "social distancing alone", when there are many new cases occurring, cannot allow a return of the masses to workplaces, go shopping and the like. There is no way that you can be confident that your workmate is not asymptomatic and has not touched the door knob on the way to the bathroom.

                      The Australian borders have been closed for a while. Stay at home, unless reason is essential, is in place. New cases are <20 per day for a population of 25 million. US has 330 million; should be at around 264 new cases per day by now, not the 26,000 being reported each day.

                      Early on Australia had an issue big time with Chinese students returning for the start of the university year. We also had lots of arrivals from Italy and Iran plus several cruise ship debacles. For me the Australian government moved too slow and we got to where we went; was obvious, just by following the news in January, there was going to be a global spread.

                      Australia is testing at rate of 13k per day now; that to pickup and contain the new 20 cases. I am hopeful that if Australia and New Zealand continue on the current trajectory we will have a bio secure zone that will be the envy of the world. I am hearing that NZ is considering offering a NZ passport to any person with $50M to bring with them.
                      Here in Finland the talking heads are saying that it looks like we managed to slow down the virus even too much. Fear is that the infection rate increases after summer and we have 2.nd much larger wave on next winter with no herd immunity at all.

                      Supermarkets, shops and kindergardens have been open whole time (albeit kindergardens are pretty quiet) and there is no "stay at home" orders. (shcools, "group hobbies" and restaurants are closed)
                      Getting rid of the virus 100% is not seen as a viable alternative in here so what we have left is to build up immunity, wait for vaccination and better medication.

                      Docs in here say that the nasal swab RT-PCR is only about 70 to 90% accurate (giving up to 30% false negatives) Some patients are found to be Covid-19 positive after 3rd or 4th swab or they need sample from the lungs.
                      That would make the total containment sooo much harder and increase the amount of testing needed by factor of 2 or 3.

                      Needless to say, US vs. NZ/Australia have totally different kind of situation and IMO mass scale testing in US doesn't solve anything at the moment.
                      80% test accuracy might be usable if you have 20 cases countrywide. If you have 2 million cases it still leaves you with 400 000 unclear cases.

                      Comment


                      • Light at the tunnels end.....

                        Netherlands and the Swiss to reopen schools soon!
                        The decision to reopen schools is based on a wide range of research which shows that young children are unlikely to pass on the virus or develop serious symptoms themselves, according to Jaap van Dissel, head of the public health institute RIVM.

                        — Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) April 22, 2020

                        Comment


                        • Same here in Finland, schools are opening 15 of may.

                          Comment


                          • I think the UK cabinet gives some interesting information. Several members of the cabinet were +ve at about the same time. Some had virtually no problem, some an uncomfortable week, and the PM was in a severe way in hospital for over a week. In addition it is likely form their moving and mixing that a number more were affected but asymptomatic.
                            If this reflects the UK population as a whole then it indicates a probable genetic variation in susceptibility and reaction. You just don't know which category you are in. Maybe if a sibling is affected you can expect to be in the same way.
                            We have also seen higher rates amongst men and amongst Afro-Caribbean and Asians supporting a genetic aspect.
                            Anyone know of scientific reports in this area?

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Baz View Post
                              I think the UK cabinet gives some interesting information. Several members of the cabinet were +ve at about the same time. Some had virtually no problem, some an uncomfortable week, and the PM was in a severe way in hospital for over a week. In addition it is likely form their moving and mixing that a number more were affected but asymptomatic.
                              If this reflects the UK population as a whole then it indicates a probable genetic variation in susceptibility and reaction. You just don't know which category you are in. Maybe if a sibling is affected you can expect to be in the same way.
                              We have also seen higher rates amongst men and amongst Afro-Caribbean and Asians supporting a genetic aspect.
                              Anyone know of scientific reports in this area?
                              Dunno about that but age seem to be biggest factor.
                              For example we have one nursing home with ~50% mortality. Out of 30 residents over half were tested positive for Covid-19 and 11 end up dead so far.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by CalM View Post
                                Light at the tunnels end.....
                                or maybe the train is coming. That is yet to be determined.

                                Around here folks are demonstrating for their right to catch Covid (send everyone back to work NOW!), but caseload is still going up. If everyone went back to work, I think it might just "go ka-boom"
                                1601

                                Keep eye on ball.
                                Hashim Khan

                                Comment

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