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OT Hurricane Ian.

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  • OT Hurricane Ian.

    The tv news footage of this storm looks terrible. Lets hope it doesn't take too many lives and livelihoods. It begs the question. Do you rebuild to cater for category five storms or do you move. Can you actually cater for such a storm through clever restructured engineering .?The other scary question is . Does a storm like this happen once every two hundred years or does it become a yearly event.?
    And also what can we expect in the future . Maybe we arent safe anywhere with this worlds changing atmosphere.

  • #2
    Plunger, please dont let the media talk you into the climate change too much. They have had these storms for years. I am 72 so I remember them from a way back.We can see them coming for days now days and you should be able to get out of the way. As far as trying to build back to with stand a bad storm down there, the good Lord may send you one worse than that sometime. I dont believe in climate change that can be controlled by man. That is just my opinion. Harold

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    • #3
      Originally posted by welderskelter View Post
      Plunger, please dont let the media talk you into the climate change too much. They have had these storms for years. I am 72 so I remember them from a way back.We can see them coming for days now days and you should be able to get out of the way. As far as trying to build back to with stand a bad storm down there, the good Lord may send you one worse than that sometime. I dont believe in climate change that can be controlled by man. That is just my opinion. Harold
      I can only see what's happening on tv and ask what the hell is happening when you look at temperatures in Europe. Then you look at Pakistan and how devastated they have been. My comment was more concern for the poor people in the storms path than a discussion about global warming.
      I notice discussions on this site don't do well and usually get nuked.
      My province here in S Africa has had devastating floods and we haven't recovered from them yet. We had 461 deaths and thousands displaced.

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      • #4
        If it is any guidance, my understanding is that getting insurance on a house in Florida is not easy. I am told that many larger companies will not touch the place, and that you generally have to go with a smaller company. Of course, then, if you get something like Ian, the smaller company may easily not have the money, and may go bankrupt, in which case you may have paid a lot for nothing.*

        It is certainly not encouraging as far as living there. We know people who have a condo in Naples Fl, on an upper floor of the building. There was something like 5 feet of water on their street, and the building has problems now. No elevator, the lower levels and utilities damaged, etc. They are up here now, and don't know if the windows blew in, which would mean the place is torn up. If not, it is probably intact, but not very habitable for the moment.

        Big storms have always happened. Hurricane Ian was NOT caused by climate change. All climate change does is to change "how often" such storms occur, and possibly how strong they are on average.

        For instance, we here in St Louis have had heavy rains and flooding before. But they have been rare, once in 30 or more years, maybe less. Now we have had two major rainstorms in 14 years. Hurricane Ike came through in 2008, dropping 7 inches of rain (17.8 cm) in about 3 hours. Now we just had 11.2 inches of rain (25.8 cm) in about 4 hours in my area.

        Both storms flooded the area. The last one flooded 350 homes just in my town, with 290 condemned. A building on the very outer edge of the 500 year flood line had 18" (45 cm) of water in it. (we are on top of a hill, right over the residential area that had 4 feet of rushing water through it)

        Might these be random? Sure. But historically heavy rains, even ones that do not cause big floods, are getting more frequent.

        * It depends how much they have in "reinsurance" to back up their funds
        CNC machines only go through the motions.

        Ideas expressed may be mine, or from anyone else in the universe.
        Not responsible for clerical errors. Or those made by lay people either.
        Number formats and units may be chosen at random depending on what day it is.
        I reserve the right to use a number system with any integer base without prior notice.
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        • #5
          Originally posted by plunger View Post

          My province here in S Africa has had devastating floods and we haven't recovered from them yet. We had 461 deaths and thousands displaced.
          In Florida the statistics are quite different. There are frequently a few hundred dead and hundreds of thousands displaced. We have a culture here where the government tries to help rebuild the devastated area. It's natural for people to choose river deltas and flood plains to build their settlements. It makes for easy transport and rich soils for agriculture. Unfortunately, they periodically flood from one cause or the other. It's not sensible to rebuild a place that gets wiped out every 10 to 40 years, but that's what we do.

          We have an area in Silicon Valley (San Jose California) where exceptionally heavy rains will cause the local dam to overflow, thus flooding a single neighborhood with sewage contaminated water. This happens every 5 to 10 years, destroying homes, cars and personal belongings. The city does not bother to build proper drainage nor flood control. It seems to be cheaper to rebuild the homes and replace the cars.

          Dan
          At the end of the project, there is a profound difference between spare parts and left over parts.

          Location: SF East Bay.

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          • #6
            The news tends to amplify events. A friend has a condo a few miles inland from where the storm came ashore. He told me damage was minimal with a few trees down. However this was a bad one. About 50 deaths reported so far. I lived in Tampa for 20 years a few miles from the bay. More than once flood water was up to my front door. You could row a boat down the street. Different story right on the coast. A lot of what you see on the news is sea level trailer parks. When Charlie came ashore about 15 years ago on nearly the same spot, many of the insurance companies left Florida. I was left with no other option than to join the State insurance pool. They did not have any reserves and people waited 2 years for a payout. Coverage was minimal with many things excluded. Charlie was a small storm by comparison. Here in the US much of the construction is wood frame. Add all the reinforcements you want. It won't stand up to a big one. Nothing like yearly hurricane anexiety, wondering if this will be the big one that wipes you out. At least the federal government will pour enormous resources into the area to help them heal faster. People move to FL from all over. Migration will slow for a few years. People have short memories. Lots of things wrong down there like the condo high rise colapsing. Greed and a boom or bust economy are bad enough without the storms. As bad as it is other places are worse. My next store neighbor in Tampa was a farmer who emigrated from South Africa in fear of his life.

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            • #7
              Lived in Florida for 72 years, learned:
              - Don't buy property where you are looking up at Cypress tree knees. (flood)
              - House on the coast must be on piers, at least 10ft off the ground. (surge)
              - If the roof stays on, the house will survive (use more nails)

              We rebuild, and try to improve. 50 miles inland from either coast, we don't expect to build for CAT-5 wind.

              We had a better roof installed after Charlie damaged ours.
              Cost more $$$, but stays on (so far).

              Used hundreds more fasteners than required to bolt the corrugated metal roof on the workshop.
              Used 3x the mounts for the solar panels than the design required, etc.


              ‚Äč

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              • #8
                All up and down the eastern seaboard people have built houses on barrier islands and dunes that by their nature were impermanent even before we screwed around with the climate. It was never a great idea. We also filled in wetlands to build cities, like Chicago and where I live. Another bad idea. And that's just in the US, Bangladesh has 165m people in a country the size of Wisconsin that's mostly river delta. It's like napping on the railroad tracks and being surprised when you get run over.

                I've made my peace with the risk I take of flood, some of you may remember my basement shop at risk of becoming a swimming pool from Sandy. But it's not an existential risk for me. Too many people seem to think their risk can be externalized, that Uncle Sam will swoop in, fix them up, and not even require them to move out of harms way. DeSantis does not even have the consistency of his supposed convictions from a decade ago when he opposed relief to NY & NJ.

                Last year we stayed a week on 2 occasions on Pine Island, basically ground zero for this storm. St James City, the community on the south end of the island is riddled with a herringbone pattern of canals, and they are lined with a majority of mobile homes. It was clear the majority of the homes were "throwaway" in the event that this happened, basically a form of self-insurance. The area was devastated in 2004 by Charlie, and the smart people knew it was going to happen again.

                Just look at it, a few feet above sea level! The Libertarian streak in me says people should be free to make this choice (like I have) and suffer the consequences, but as a society, we tend to aid people who've made poor choices regardless. Floridians complain that market price flood insurance is unaffordable. Perhaps they should be permitted to deal with the reality that it's that expensive for good reason, and the risk they take for the lifestyle choice of living there should not be socialized. Same goes for the Hamptons, Jersey Shore, Outer Banks, etc, not to mention out West where they've moved into countryside that has historically burned regularly.

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                Location: Jersey City NJ USA

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                • #9
                  I have some friends who live(d) in Cape Coral (Ft. Myers). They weren't going to evacuate, but at the last minute (late Tuesday night), the wife gave an ultimatum, "you can stay if you want, but I'm taking the dogs and getting out". Their back door is 9 ft. elevation, storm surge was close to 20 ft. They're alive, but lost everything.

                  Regardless of the causes, rising ocean levels and surface temperatures are measurable and indisputable. Higher levels mean "nuisance flooding" in areas that didn't previously experience them. Higher water temps equate to higher evaporation rates, creating more energetic storms. Even if there aren't more frequent storms, there will be more "catastrophic" storms. Insurance companies will continue to flee areas of greatest risk and "insurance of last resort" will become ever more expensive as losses mount. Already FEMA has started forcing flood prone individuals and communities along the Mississippi to relocate to higher ground rather than continue to finance rebuilding in the same location.Unfortuantely "higher ground" is only a few feet higher in much of Florida.The greater Miami area (population approx 6 million) an average elevation of 6 ft. The cost of staying will force many people to relocate, but where?


                  It's all mind over matter.
                  If you don't mind, it don't matter.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by deltap View Post
                    As bad as it is other places are worse. My next store neighbor in Tampa was a farmer who emigrated from South Africa in fear of his life.
                    Your next door neighbor is not lying to you. Eight farmers have been brutally murdered since 26 August 2022 when a political party was cleared by the courts of hate speech .The song they chant is "kill the boer"(farmer).From the looks of things America seems well equipped dealing with events like this. I see they have an engineering army section who can help with these events. Water purification and filtration plants. One of the big factors we are sitting with now is that every river and swimming beach stinks of sh1t. Our beaches have such high e coli levels that swimming has been banned . This may not seem too important but it effects tourism . We sit with a 35 percent unemployment problem so it is quite devastating to job employment.
                    Its hard to gauge how vast the area that has been hit by this hurricane is . In terms of kiometers wide and long ,what are we talking about.?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by plunger View Post
                      Its hard to gauge how vast the area that has been hit by this hurricane is . In terms of kiometers wide and long ,what are we talking about.?
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                      The distance from end to end of the red zone is about 220km, then it marched NE across the state, losing power as it went, down to a tropical storm by the time it hit the Atlantic.

                      Location: Jersey City NJ USA

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                      • #12
                        I see it shows some areas had a predicted twelve foot storm surge. That's crazy.

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