Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

OT: peak oil - a myth or a real threat?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #76
    Carld
    It's not a SWAG projection
    There is a scientific method based on rock strata formation and soundings .
    There also are Magnetic reflection ,Gravatational scans and mapping that point to "possibilities" of oil containment.
    Having been in the oil patch in the 70's, I really appreciate the tremendous
    progress made in exploration and projections.
    It is extremely scientific and not like dowsing as many portend it to be !
    There are those who don't honestly know, and it is important that they understand that
    oil does NOT accumulate in a big "hollow" dome shaped chamber that schools show in books
    It is contained in porous rocks and loose strata, and while the field may have a "cap" on it,(usually)
    It can be in several sandwiched layers, each with it's own ramifications and reserve potential.

    There is brand new data released this week by the Federal Government Energy Department
    that spells out Energy Reserves, proven and unproven and the numbers will stagger a few folks out there.
    Can I say that Chicken Little will have to go home.
    I'll post it when the link is sent to me as i doubt the news media will publish it.

    The problem we have is governmental.
    Our elected leaders are preventing this natural resource from helping our economy.
    They "benefit" by gaining tax revenue.
    When will we wake up to the scam ?
    Again, I post this .
    Please read it...Chicago has 10 levels of taxation on gas.
    At 79 cents, Chicago makes 10 times the profit of Exxon ...PER GALLON !

    http://cbs2chicago.com/politics/gas.....2.729939.html

    Believe the BS and you will inherit 5 dollar gas !
    Politicians have never met a tax, they didn't like.

    Rich
    Last edited by Rich Carlstedt; 06-04-2008, 11:45 PM.

    Comment


    • #77
      A very nasty side effect of those taxes is that once the government gets the money, it becomes incorporated into the budget. If the price of gas does fall, or consumption is significantly reduced, a budget shortfall will exist, and those tax dollars will then be raised in other areas to compensate for it.
      Jim H.

      Comment


      • #78
        I have no problem paying fuel taxes,in fact I believe all motor vehicle taxes should be paid at the pump.However if those taxes are collected to build and maintain roads then that is what they should be used for.This many times is not te case,road work funds are routinely raided to finance other pet projects.

        As for taxes increasing with the price of fuel,well they should.Reason being is the cost of road construction goes up with the price of oil so the increase really does need to be keyed to the cost of fuel.It's only fair that people who use the roads share n the costs/savings as they arise.
        I just need one more tool,just one!

        Comment


        • #79
          Best Oil Chart

          Here is the best chart on Peak Oil I know of:

          http://oilposter.org/posterlarge.html

          Notice how the last year the world discovered more oil than it consumed was 1983.

          Always remember that the issue is the rate of oil production - not reserves.

          The problem should be called Oil Inflection not Peak Oil as the important thing is that demand is outpacing demand and the market is flipping over from a buyer's market to a seller's market. (priced not at the cost of production but the value to the marginal consumer)

          The scariest part of the chart is how progress has followed the growth of cheap fuel. World population has tracked it precisely. What will happen when we go down the other side?

          For all you that say there is plenty of oil out there, I expect a rebuttal to the book "Twilight in the Desert" which pulls the wraps off the reality of Arab oil depletion. All the super giant oil fields in the world are now in depletion meaning they produce less and less each year. You can say what you want, but there are no sources of energy which can produce the tremendous prosperity those supergiant fields gave to mankind.

          Did you notice how the Saudis couldn't give their buddy Bush any increase? Politics aside, they can't do it even if they wanted to.

          Thanks in no small part to what I've learned from you machinists, I converted a little 2-door to electric last year and am having a great time thumbing my nose at gas stations.

          The age of oil is nearly over. Get over it!

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by AZSORT
            Here is the best chart on Peak Oil I know of:
            That chart is not showing the real picture. For example, Canada has the second largest "oil reserve" (i.e. including tar sand) and yet the bottom chart shows Canada as having relatively meager amount.

            Comment


            • #81
              Originally posted by rotate
              That chart is not showing the real picture. For example, Canada has the second largest "oil reserve" (i.e. including tar sand) and yet the bottom chart shows Canada as having relatively meager amount.
              How can you even read what that bottom inset chart says? There's a footnote next to the Canada figure, which probably says something about how they're tabulating tar sands versus crude oil reserves.
              "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did."

              Comment


              • #82
                The problem should be called Oil Inflection not Peak Oil as the important thing is that demand is outpacing demand and the market is flipping over from a buyer's market to a seller's market. (priced not at the cost of production but the value to the marginal consumer)
                Supply and demand do not control oil prices.

                The best evidence of that is this chart of inflation adjusted oil prices since 1946. The two large peaks in the price do not correspond with any particular enormous increase in demand, especially not in the 1970s. OTOH, periods of high growth and high demand in the 50s and 60s result in no change in prices. It isn't until the 1980's that the markets suddenly become volatile, long before China or India become factors.



                The one thing that corresponds with the sudden volatility of prices in the early 80's is the introduction of computer trading and the ability to make rapid and speculative buy and sell decisions on an intraday basis. It's called Day Trading and without computers it isn't possible. As soon as day trading enters the picture physchology starts to play a much bigger role. This effect becomes even more exaggerated as the development of instant world news begins to affect trading on a minute by minute basis. If you visit any broker's work station he will have several monitors that are tuned to news sources from around the world. Nothing is more important.

                The price of oil is driven by what the traders think it will be in the future. The numbers you hear on the news are not today's prices, those were set three months ago. They are the futures contract prices for the next three months. The spot market price doesn't have much meaning since almost nobody is ever paying spot market price.
                Free software for calculating bolt circles and similar: Click Here

                Comment


                • #83
                  Originally posted by AZSORT
                  Thanks in no small part to what I've learned from you machinists, I converted a little 2-door to electric last year and am having a great time thumbing my nose at gas stations.
                  Is there some web site that provides the details of your conversion? I would be interested in seeing/reading at least a few details surrounding the project?

                  ...In short, does a "log" of this conversion exist for us readers?
                  John M...your (un)usual basement dweller

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    No, I have no website for my conversion, although there are quite a few out there. See evworld.com kta-ev.com electroauto.com or get one of the books like 'convert it' . Any of you guys could do it. Just get the series DC motor kit and make or buy a motor to transmission adaptor, cram as many batteries as is practical, and be careful about the wiring. Needs to be a manual tranny though.

                    Even though there is some production coming out of the Canadian tar sands now, no one really expects it to be significant and therefore does not include it in the recoverable reserves catagory. Remember, it is not the quantity of reserves that count but the rate of production! There is no way any alternative or newly discovered source of liquid fuel is going to compensate for the loss from the great oil fields going into depletion. Oil is and will get progressively more expensive until enough demand is destroyed to meet supply. Yes, there will be wild speculative swings etc., but the primary trend will be up.

                    How much is a gallon of super concentrated BTUs worth to you?
                    How high will it have to go before you use less of it?

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Thanks for all the replies.

                      So, I think there's a consensus that oil peak will indeed happen. Whether that's just relating to the production alone or the relationship between demand and production.

                      I guess the real question is, when will we reach this point. Some scare mongers say that it's already happened and that we're on a downward spiral. Let's say it's 50 years away. Is that enough time for our economy and civilization as a whole to finding alternative energy sources of that magnitude, or is the party over and we're doomed to going back to living as we did in 19th centry?

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by AZSORT
                        No, I have no website for my conversion, although there are quite a few out there. See evworld.com kta-ev.com electroauto.com or get one of the books like 'convert it' . Any of you guys could do it. Just get the series DC motor kit and make or buy a motor to transmission adaptor, cram as many batteries as is practical, and be careful about the wiring. Needs to be a manual tranny though.
                        Thanks AZSORT
                        John M...your (un)usual basement dweller

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Originally posted by rotate
                          So, I think there's a consensus that oil peak will indeed happen.

                          I guess the real question is, when will we reach this point. Some scare mongers say that it's already happened and that we're on a downward spiral.
                          I don't think it's scare mongering. According to DOE and OPEC statistics, world oil production peaked in 2005, which is when oil prices started skyrocketing.
                          You can argue about the causality, but it seems pretty straight-forward.

                          is the party over and we're doomed to going back to living as we did in 19th centry?
                          Humans are very adaptable. If you take the average between the folks who believe that we have infinite oil, and the folks who think we've already peaked, let's say we have 50 years before the world's oil supplies are at a crisis point, and let's assume the oil shortages and the consequent spiraling food prices don't cause a world war. That gives us 50 years to figure out a solution: heavily investing in renewables, biofuels, (much) more efficient cars, or my favorite: a Manhattan Project to make fusion work.

                          What's interesting is that during the oil shortages imposed by OPEC in the 70's, the spiraling oil prices created a surge in alternative energy programs and research (remember SynFuel? ), start-ups and commerical ventures, etc. The often-quoted historical account is that this worried the Saudis enough to stop the oil embargo, and oil prices returned to "normal."

                          Oil prices since 2005 have jump-started the alternative energy "industry" (community?) again, so if the current world-wide oil production shortfall isn't artificial, it seems like global investment in alternatives will flourish. We all have our favorites: electric cars, fuel-cells, biofuels, nuclear energy, hydro, geo-thermal, ... but if oil prices continue to escalate, it seems likely that some of those alternatives are going to be successful.
                          Last edited by lazlo; 06-05-2008, 02:52 PM.
                          "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did."

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            One of the things completely missing here, and "thanks" Evan for posting the chart.....is inflation.
                            When the dollar is not supported (hasn't been for 3 years ..Coincidence ? )
                            and we run huge deficits/stagflation AKA Carter years and interest rates than skyrocket (bought a house iin 1981..paid 17 % INTEREST), oil as a comodity will increase in true cost.

                            Balancing the budget is a mis-nomer.. we need to reduce the National Debt, weither its war cost, or Katrina costs..they must go down.
                            Our falling dollar means higher prices for oil and anything else.
                            Europe has not had the runup in gas prices as we have seen, because the Euro has gotten stronger..offsetting the apparent increase.

                            This is easily seen, if you look at the price of oil in terms of Gold prices!
                            I don't have a chart, but back when Oil was 40 bucks a barrel in 78, Gold was going to 800
                            These two move in unison.. Gold comes down when the dollars' value goes up.
                            OVER SPENDING BY CONGRESS causes the dollar to fall.
                            Rich

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Originally posted by Rich Carlstedt
                              One of the things completely missing here .is inflation.
                              When the dollar is not supported oil as a comodity will increase in true cost.
                              Sure, the value of the dollar is down 40% against the Euro in the last 6 years, but worldwide oil prices are still at historical highs, even against the Euro, which is why the UK truckers staged a demonstration two weeks ago:

                              Soaring Oil prices Fuel Jump in European Inflation
                              May 30, 2008
                              Andrew McCathie--dpa


                              BERLIN (dpa) -- Inflation in the 15-member eurozone surged to a record 3.6 percent in May, data released Friday showed, ruling out an early move by the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates.

                              The figures, published by the European Union's statistics office, showed soaring food and oil prices driving up inflation in the currency bloc from 3.3 percent in April at the same time as consumer and business confidence fell.


                              Rising fuel prices: European views
                              May 28, 2008
                              BBC World News


                              BBC News website readers across Europe have been reacting to the continent's surging fuel prices, which have prompted blockades and strikes in Spain, France and the UK.

                              Balancing the budget is a mis-nomer.. we need to reduce the National Debt, weither its war cost, or Katrina costs..they must go down.
                              Balancing the budget is hopeless when we're spending $12 Billion a month on Iraq. The total cost of the war is going to be at least a trillion dollars.
                              Last edited by lazlo; 06-05-2008, 06:17 PM.
                              "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did."

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Originally posted by Evan
                                Supply and demand do not control oil prices.

                                The best evidence of that is this chart of inflation adjusted oil prices since 1946. The two large peaks in the price do not correspond with any particular enormous increase in demand, especially not in the 1970s. OTOH, periods of high growth and high demand in the 50s and 60s result in no change in prices. It isn't until the 1980's that the markets suddenly become volatile, long before China or India become factors.

                                ....

                                The one thing that corresponds with the sudden volatility of prices in the early 80's is the introduction of computer trading and the ability to make rapid and speculative buy and sell decisions on an intraday basis. It's called Day Trading and without computers it isn't possible. As soon as day trading enters the picture physchology starts to play a much bigger role. This effect becomes even more exaggerated as the development of instant world news begins to affect trading on a minute by minute basis. If you visit any broker's work station he will have several monitors that are tuned to news sources from around the world. Nothing is more important.

                                The price of oil is driven by what the traders think it will be in the future. The numbers you hear on the news are not today's prices, those were set three months ago. They are the futures contract prices for the next three months. The spot market price doesn't have much meaning since almost nobody is ever paying spot market price.
                                The solution then is simple - increase the time constant of the system. Get rid of intraday futures trading and get investment money out of price gambling and into investing in reality. Investment in oil should change its emphasis from gambiling on future prices to being more on building refineries, drilling and even other energy sources. It should be done slowly like winding back on the differential of any control system. 1hr 4hr 12 hrs 24hrs 48hr etc...
                                derek

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X