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OT: peak oil - a myth or a real threat?

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  • lazlo
    LOL Nick -- well said!

    It's all pissing in the wind anyway

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  • NickH
    It's all crap.

    The oil will never run out.

    It's your patriotic duty to burn as much as possible

    Bury your head in the sand, buy another truck with an unfeasibly large engine and sh-itty gas mileage & shoot the grandkids, that way whatever comes along to replace the human race (lack of caps intentional) will have a running start,
    Kind regards,

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  • tmarks11
    Originally posted by oldtiffie
    Many people do or may not realise that a mortgage is a "trade-able commodity/instrument" and can be sold-on by the provider of the mortgage to others either separately or "bundled" (as in the recent/current "Sub-Prime" catastrophe).
    Which is why I am willing to pay more interest for a mortgage from my credit union, because they will not sell the mortgage to someone else (unlike most banks).

    I have heard a number of horrer stories of people who have had their mortgage to less then honest companies, who conveniently loose mortgage payments, charge late fees inappropriately, etc. Definitely not worth it.

    I tried shopping for mortgages using brokers such as in 2004 when I was buying a house. I had a "mortgage broker" in California screaming at me on the phone because I refused his 1.5% ARM he was offerring. Big money (then); glad I flushed all those offsers and went with my credit union.

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  • oldtiffie
    Any future/s???

    Originally posted by Rich Carlstedt
    Yes OldTiffe
    Business is business but..
    What we have before us is .....well baloney..
    Real business is having a product (which is not imaginary !) and selling it.
    These future guys are buying and selling and never taking delivery
    This is easily seen in the childs game called 'Musical Chairs"
    You want to be moving in the game, but when the music stops.."don't be holding the bag". ( Like Enron ?)
    Its fine in the chair game IF there are enough chairs (called demand)
    If there aren't enough chairs however, your butt is on the floor.
    By restricting Oil Drilling ( greenies/gore/OPEC ) the music keeps playing !

    .................................................. .............
    .................................................. ..........
    Thanks Rich.

    This is nothing new - just the old dressed up as new - which it isn't.

    People have been "investing" for ever it seems. They turn over their money to someone else to "look after" in the hope and expectation of some net future gain and accessibility to their money.

    Unless you have "hard cash money in your hands" all you have is a credit and/or a receipt, "scrip"/Share" and a sort of promissory note with little or no lien or claim over the cash or assets in the entity in or with you are investing - nothing more. Unless you are a "secured" creditor at or near the top of the order of preference/claimants, you have little or no chance at all or any of getting your "Money" back in the event of a failure, "crash" or adverse "take over".

    Your bank statement is only a statement of your credits and debits as well as a reconciliation of them that is worth nothing in real terms unless or until and when you can or do "cash" any credit balance.

    So far as I am aware, having your money in a bank is no guarantee that you will get it as and when you need it at any time let alone when there is a "run" on the bank or it "fails". "Safe as money in the bank" may well be a fallacy. The traditional "put it under the mattress" might not be much better either.

    Life itself is a lottery at best.

    Many people confuse "having" stuff with actually "owning" it. If you own it out-right and it is unencumbered (loans, mortgages) etc. - you own it and can sell it without recourse or referral to anyone else. If you "owe" on all or part of it you may perhaps only be able to sell it with the approval of others who may have equity or other interests in your "property". Your net worth in these circumstances is only what the market will pay less costs and disbursements - and that may be approaching or less than zero!!!.

    People who buy a house (or shares or similar) and finance it through debt (mortgage, "gearing") etc. are often counting on either having a job in that area that pays enough for the house and that house prices will rise such that the house can be "sold on" for a "profit". If any of these assumptions that under-pin the decision to buy or "invest in" that house fail to materialise or be sustained through the "asset" "holding period" the whole "house of cards" (as it were) may well collapse in a cascading effect with (financially at least) catastrophic results. This is even worse again if the "asset" is repossessed and sold at a Mortgagees sale in distressed circumstances. This of course pre-supposes that here IS a market - which there may not be.

    Many people do or may not realise that a mortgage is a "trade-able commodity/instrument" and can be sold-on by the provider of the mortgage to others either separately or "bundled" (as in the recent/current "Sub-Prime" catastrophe). A Builder can use his Contract with you to secure/get finance from his finance provider as that contact is a trade-able instrument as well.

    "Playing the market" is "futures trading" in one form with the risks involved.

    "Playing" with your own money can be bad enough but playing with the money of others is worse - particularly if you are gambling on a net gain after taking out a mortgage financed either with "geared" funds or "unused equity" in your home or assets. It is even worse if you take out a loan with a low "honey-moon" interest period and neglect to allow for the increase/"re-set" that is due.

    Any "failure to pay" (default) will almost certainly get you on the "Debtors" listings that many companies use. In that event, your chances of getting credit at all let alone at "good" rates is almost zero.

    Having tangible "possession" may not always be or mean the same as out-right ownership.

    At every stage of financing there are the "Percentage men" and "ticket clickers" who get a "slice of the action" for not doing much at all - the IRS only one of many.

    That "dog" (you/us) has lots of "fleas" (parasites) living off us - believe it.

    So, there are any amount of "futures" trades and traders "out there". Future can be as long or as short as you like.

    Extending credit to a business customer is no different. You are gambling on being paid within your "terms of trade" and are dependent on that payee/creditor for your livelihood as well as your obligations to your materials provider, credit/finance provider and employees etc.

    Buying and selling "futures" or any of their derivatives or similar "products" has been and will go on forever. The Stock and Futures exchanges are a good example.

    All of the above is "futures trading" in one form or another. It is also a gamble where you have to assess your "odds" and take your chances.

    There are several old dictums that will always apply:
    - "You pays your money and you takes your chances";
    - don't gamble if you can't afford to lose it.

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  • Evan
    It helps to understand the issues. In fact, there is something that us "mice" can do about it. I don't know why but we appear to be on some sort of list that is used to make up lists of people to call when conducting polls of various sorts. I don't mind spending some time answering questions for a poll if I have the time. Because of the way polling works a single person carries a hugely disproportionate amount of influence in those circumstances. Most polls sample only about 500 to 2000 people at the most even for countrywide issues. It can be mathematically proven that increasing the sample size will make little difference to the result.

    However, it gives the people polled a rare chance to speak with the voice of thousands. In particular, the statistical result can be significantly skewed ( it's that 1 time out of 20 ) by opinions that are outliers compared to the rest in the poll. It's an opportunity that I don't usually pass up.

    Another way to exercise your influence is to meet in person with your elected representatives and tell them what you think about various issues. Very few people do that so the ones that do carry a disproportionate amount of influence once again. And again, this is something I do.

    Another way is well written letters to the editor of the local paper. I fought a battle against a non conforming use of a property very close to mine that was proposed by a group that is normally impossible to fight. I spoke for all the residents of the local area with their consent and approval. The proposed use was a group home for young offenders and was not only inappropriate but also allowed under special provisions of provincial law that left no room for input or appeal by nearby residents.

    The group in question used every dirty trick they could think of and I stuck to the facts and the real issues. The entire battle was fought via letters to the editor. I made it a point to go to the newspaper and meet with the editor to submit each letter for publishing and made sure that it wouldn't be edited by him. If changes needed to be made I made them, not him, and my letters were published as written.

    The net result was that we succesfully opposed the establishment of the group home and also exposed the specific members of the group in question as unfit to operate such an establishment as well as being clearly racist and willing to use defamation to try and further their ends.

    I survived the slurs and insults and my business with other members of that identfiable local group actually improved after that episode.

    One person can make a difference.

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  • oldtiffie
    Sorry but .........................

    Sorry, but .........................

    If all anyone, or any of us can do is talk about it and not (be) able to do or get anyone else to do anything positive or constructive, it had been waste of time and effort and an exercises in stupidity and futility.

    "Doing something" just for the sake of getting "something" done can be just as counter-productive - as can stirring others up for the same or even less nett tangible result.

    I suspect that this is one of those times where we are just going to have to bunker down, adapt as best we can and ride it out.

    The solution - and possibly the cause of the problem - is in the hands of others who will take no notice of any of us and who may continue with this scenario as they see it as being in their own best interest and a means to their ends.

    All that you will get is useless/symbolic "hand-wringing", empty platitudes, false promises and "spin".

    This is in the realm of big money, big business, big government/s and "national/strategic interest/s".

    There is a proverb in the East which goes along the lines of: "When the Elephants fight the mice/ants get trampled".

    It may be the same if/when the "Elephants" co-operate or copulate -in which case we may see some "big issues" after the gestation periods (of "Big" elephants???).

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  • rotate
    Originally posted by oldtiffie
    None of all this posturing or pontificating etc. here is going to one bit of good - at all.

    Like it or not, we are all going to have to "wait and see", "play the hand/s were are dealt" and learn (and have to) live within our means.
    I respectfully disagree. The value of revisiting the past and analyzing it, is to learn from it and alter the course of human destiny.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    The key is to drive smaller rigs, you dont need a 400HP diesel king cab truck to haul your fat ass hog woman through the burger king drive through to get her a triple whopper.

    I live in America and see the huge hog bitches who need to get off thier fat asses and walk a block if it dont kill them.

    No BS dudes, im not kidding...

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  • oldtiffie
    Love it

    None of all this posturing or pontificating etc. here is going to one bit of good - at all.

    Like it or not, we are all going to have to "wait and see", "play the hand/s were are dealt" and learn (and have to) live within our means.

    Not liking it will neither make it right nor change it.

    Its bit like having a baby in that they can't make you love it, but they sure can and will make you have it and put up with it.

    Perhaps some relevant quotes from the "long ago":
    "The Rubلiyلt of Omar Khayyلm"

    One of the quantrains from which is:
    The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
    Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit
    Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
    Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.

    see/read "poems" at the end of:

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  • Evan
    It's already a high profit item. You can see how much by pricing the multipurpose hydraulic oil used in heavy equipment. It is used in systems where it lubricates the transmission, the wet brakes and is also the hydraulic oil. I just picked up a gallon for $7.00 to use in the hydraulic system in my Land Rover and log splitter. The difference between it and the high priced brands is a few cents worth of additives (maybe) and a lot of expensive advertising plus a huge profit margin. They can afford to hold the price line for a while.

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  • rotate
    Funny enough, I haven't seen much change in the price of motor oil in the past year.

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  • Rich Carlstedt
    Thanks Evan

    Yeehaanow...Atomic Energy, big time

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  • Evan
    Just a note about the value of oil;

    Oil is much more valuable as a feedstock for the chemical industry than it is as a source of energy. It's the basis for everything from plastics to synthesized beta carotene. It's worth far more as a lubricant than a heat source. Without oil your car isn't going anywhere regardless of what powers the prime mover. It's made into dyes, paints, preservatives for lumber and roads. Nearly every machine on earth depends on oil from the ground.

    You want to see expensive? Never mind the price of gasoline. Wait to see what happens to the cost of manufactured goods as the price of oil goes up. It's the raw material for the majority of durable goods made today.

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  • yeehaanow
    To the peak oil nay-sayers and greenie-haters

    Let's say you could have unrestricted drilling and access everywhere, you could dig up all the shale you wanted- EVENTUALLY you're gonna "run out" no matter what. (You'll never run out, it will just be too expensive to produce.)

    So, why not, INSTEAD of arranging our lives to be 100% dependant on oil and fossil fuels, arrange our lives to live without it. If we have to anyway at some point, might as well do it now, so what if it MIGHT be fine until after you're gone. What about your grand-kids? Do you really want them cursing your grave for recklessly squandering the worlds energy supply, and causing harm to the environment?

    I'm glad this is a hot topic, because it is THE pivitol issue of our time. I feel it is a big area where man has yet-again underestimated his own ignorance. You can't tell me for sure that taking gadzillions of tons of ancient carbon from the ground and putting it into the air won't have serious consequences for the environment. (Unless you have been to the future )

    Also, oil in the ground, or rock, under the ocean, or under the ice-caps doesn't count for diddly until it's in the gas can. Haven't you seen the show wildcats? You can't tell me for sure that we will ever be able to produce anything significant from these difficult-to-produce places. ( Unless, of course, while you were in the future you checked on this too )

    To me, if you compare our lifestyle to investing, we have put all our energy-investment eggs in one basket, and you KNOW what a financial advisor would think about that. Don't think this is true? Try to go one day, one hour, or one minute without using anything that has direct or indirect fossil fuel inputs. Chances are, you can't- unless you go naked in the woods. This "lifestyle" did not come about by chance. It was a choice, and we CAN choose differently. I'm not saying we go cold turkey, but let's think about the fact that we really don't KNOW what the consequences of our lifestyle will be.

    I for one, do not want Exon to have me by the balls because of my lifestyle choices. I have managed to arrange my life so that I don't have to be a slave to the pump prices, but I am one of the lucky few.

    You can't ever know for sure until it's too late, so I would advise anyone to err on the side of caution when it comes to personal oil dependency.

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  • Rich Carlstedt
    Proof in the pudding
    In todays News !

    EPA Blocks expansion of Illinois refinery from 60,000 barrels to 500,000 barrels

    In the mean time, the Royal family today announced a new Refinery to be built in SA

    How is this 2006 quote :
    The United States production of petroleum products continues to fall while use continues to rise. The United State now imports most of her need for petroleum products. Any large-scale disruption of petroleum products to the United States would have consequences so severe to the U.S. that she would face a massive inflationary depression or she would be forced to go to war to secure access to the oil and gas."
    This is from

    The 4 dollars we pay now, is a warning. We must pay heed, or live by our mistakes

    As they say, the writting is on the wall.

    PS. I don't ascribe to the last website, only the logic of oil use consequences they project
    Last edited by Rich Carlstedt; 06-06-2008, 02:58 PM.

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