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OT - Looked up "argumentative" in the dictionary...

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Argumentative

    Normal Tactics- It's called 'pi55ing in the same pot'
    The Stent-- I bought it for £150 and it turned out to have been fabricated out of mild steel sections-- and is bootifooooooool!

    Recall my comments way back when

    Cheers

    N

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  • lazlo
    replied
    Originally posted by aviemoron
    Of course, I know. Do you honestly think that I am always playing the clown?
    Sorry Norm, I didn't know about the mortgage-backed securities being re-sold on Wall Street until the Economist article about the Bear Stearns debacle. There's also another crisis in the insurance industry -- apparently these idiots were issuing multi-billion dollar financial insurance policies on the mortgage-backed securities, and so now the insurance companies are asking for $13 Billion in Federal relief.

    All these assholes play golf together, so my layman's synopsis of the crisis is that some shyster in Countrywide comes up with a scam to create large numbers of bad loans to high-risk borrowers, then they package them in chunks and re-sell them to their buddies on Wall-Street, who then take out a billion dollar insurance policies on them.

    The CEO's of all three companies (the mortgage company, the investment bank, and the insurance underwriter) make hundreds of millions of dollars on the annual bonuses, and when the pyramid scheme collapses, they quietly step down and take their automatic severance bonus.

    These guys should be in Federal, Pound Me in the $# prison...

    Must tell you about the fabricated Stent!
    I'd love to see that! Is is the Brooks version, like Gagetbuilder made? Or did you use bar stock?
    Last edited by lazlo; 06-04-2008, 12:29 PM.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Argumentative

    Robert,
    Of course, I know. Do you honestly think that I am always playing the clown?

    Must tell you about the fabricated Stent!

    Norm

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  • lazlo
    replied
    Originally posted by aviemoron
    At Christmas, the market went arse over tit with loans which were not going to be paid back. It was in the US but the ripples ran back to just across the road from here.
    More than you may realize! The multi-national mortgage companies that were issuing bad loans (Bank of America, Citigroup, Countrywide Financial, JPMorgan Chase, Washington Mutual and Wells Fargo) were re-packaging the mortages as "mortgage-backed securities" that were sold on Wall Street, and bought-up by mutual fund managers.

    So when the sub-prime lenders started defaulting on the mortgages, the mortgage-backed securities washed-out, and a bunch of investment banks world-wide went bankrupt, including Bear-Stearns (who was bailed-out at the 11th hour by the Federal Reserve, which is completely unheard of...)

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    OT-Argumentative

    Jerry,
    I actually lived not only through the poverty of the 30's but the privations of 6 years of total war starvation and the aftermath.

    Nobody can fling anything at us that we have not experienced before.

    It is as simple or as complicated as that. What happened at 11AM(GMT)Sunday 3rd September 1939 prepared us for anything.

    Norm

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  • J Tiers
    replied
    The real "doomsday scenario" financially is that you will be just as poor as anyone else, because investments will be utterly worthless, and land must be actually occupied to be held...

    At that point, most people will be in very sad shape.

    I would speculate that the people on these forums will be better off.

    Either they live in more remote areas, with attendant advantages (and disadvantages, due to roving outlaws), OR and more importantly, we are the folks who are most likely to be able to FIX THINGS, and hence we may be in demand, or at least able to trade un-stealable capabilities for sustenance.

    You can steal stuff, but abilities can only be destroyed or enslaved, never stolen.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Argumentative

    Hi Jerry,
    Thank you for adding your bit. I will not argue because there was a lot of money about but its real origins are unclear( to me)
    What is clear is rampant inflation. What is also clear is what we are running into.How we get out of it- isn't. Personally, I am more than OK and I haven't needed to work for the last 25 years or so.

    What is really bugging me is just how long these forums are going to last because they are indicators of what is much , much larger and distressing outside these once 'hallowed halls.'

    It's the old men dreaming dreams and having visions syndrome.
    Sorry, old friend

    Norm

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  • J Tiers
    replied
    Originally posted by aviemoron
    It was in the US but the ripples ran back to just across the road from here.
    Close, but you have it backwards......

    The ripples were HERE in the US, really.

    There is a lot more investment capital among the super-rich, and it was all looking for an outlet that could make money. Twice as much money as 10 years ago, much more than the productive output of the entire world.

    So.........

    What was the hot market? Ah, yes, US mortgages. The "mortgage-backed security".

    And what was that?

    First there is a sort of "bundling" of many mortgages into a profitable item, paying (theoretically) a good dividend. Shares of that income potential are then sold as the "security" which, obviously, is "mortgage-backed" since that is where the income is from.

    So, There were LOTS of rich europeans and asians etc looking for investment, and only so many mortgages in the US........ (is this sounding familiar yet?)

    So, what to do? The price of these securities was rising due to demand, so many acted to supply this demand from foreign investment for the securities. They issued MORE mortgages, and duly bundled and sold shares, etc.

    But, how did they GET these mortgages? Well, that was easy.........they issued a mortgage to anyone who wanted one, and was essentially willing to lie about their income to provide at least a specious basis for issuance. Of course LOTS of perfectly honest people got hooked into mortgages they should not have qualified for...... in many cases because the contracts were in dense legalese, and did NOT reflect the explanations given to them.

    The figuring was that money could be made if as many as 12% of the mortgages (about 1 in 8) went bad.

    Trouble is, 25% went bad...... so the house of cards collapsed. The worst hit are the folks who get turfed out of "their" houses.......

    This is why I say the ripples were IN the US, NOT outside..... The basic huge demand drove the "creation" (with in many cases a good dose of deception, to be sure) of investment vehicles. And this demand was NOT from within the US......

    One could say that the foreign investors basically got what they should have expected, and the people who really got the shaft were the ones who got snookered into bad mortgages right here in the US. THEY didn't do anything but sign on the line

    Now, that money has moved onwards........ The NEW "HOT INVESTMENT" is commodities..... Yep, the biggies..... OIL and FOOD.

    Normally, demand is curbed by price. When it rises too far, demand falls off. I hear about new drivers in India and china, which is true. But they are not rich enough to buy $15 gas in quantity...... nor $200 oil. There has to be another reason why oil jumps the way it has.

    And there is...... Investments in commodity futures. Mind, I am not claiming any "evil conspiracy"..... more like a "lemming behavior". But, that money that lost out in mortgages is still demanding investment vehicles, and now commodities is "it".

    The money is COMPETING to "get in" and the run-up of pricing has been in a considerable part due to "out-bidding" each other to get in. naturally there are indeed "organic" drivers for price rises, but from 30% to 50% of the rises have been sparked by speculators engaged in "competitive bidding", along with added fallout in driving down the dollar, etc.

    obviously it can't go on. There is a limit and it will hit when demand drops enough that some are left "holding the bag" on high priced futures that they have to liquidate lower. Then, the lemmings will drop out as fast as they went in, and reason will probably return, at least to that market.

    There isn't a lot of different investments left to bid on (or bid up), and the whole system of capitalization and inevitable growth may be in for a bit of a shock............. Eventually someone must pay, but what if nobody does?

    BTW, a number of countries which have subsidized fuel for citizens are stopping that. The effect will be to make fuel demand more in accord with costs, which almost has to be an improvement, since a class of fuel users who were not responsible to pay for it will now have to pay, and will lower usage.

    SUVs are not ONLY in the US, they tend to be very popular in areas with subsidized fuel..........................
    Last edited by J Tiers; 06-03-2008, 07:59 PM.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    OT-Argumentative

    TMT,

    At this moment none of us know what or why any one of us is 'grumpy'
    A long while back, I wrote of what was going to happen because I could see a slump coming up. I wrote of rising fuel prices and inefficient vehicles.
    At Christmas, the market went arse over tit with loans which were not going to be paid back. It was in the US but the ripples ran back to just across the road from here. The second biggest mortgage firm wentbust. Today, another British 'biggy' had to have 23% of its wealth bought out. Since Christmas, fuel prices in Europe not just the UK are rocketting up- and there is more to come. I was in HongKong and my mates are Chinese and China is importing rice. At the moment, house prices are dropping and the threat of negative equity faces thousands. It is not merely happening in the UK but it is in Spain and France. Food- coupled with all sorts of troubles is rising by- 25% or more in 6 months.
    Banks are not lending money to people who haven't got the money and credit cards are becoming a joke.

    The crunch comes- not perhaps with Don directly but every big firm and little firm and the man in the street- with an empty begging bowl.
    Do remember that you too are part of the system- and that you are not going to get more than scrap for your tools or they may rust. You may not have a job, you may have a starving family and your washers may not be worth a plugged nickel. Will anyone want you- or give you a crust? Not when their own bellies are empty.

    You see, TMT, I am an old, old man and in 1929, the year that I was conceived, men jumped from the NY skyscrapers. They had reached the end of the road.

    Before you start a further tirade, take one step back and see yourself of where you will be at Christmas 2008 and Christmas 2009. Don will have his own problems. So, believe me, will you.

    There is barely time to build your defences- I suggest that you concentrate on yourself and your own problems!

    Me? I saw it happening. My problems- health and age only

    Norm

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by Milacron of PM
    A little birdie told me that Too_Little_Sense was over here "doing what he does". Apparently since I kicked him off PM he's been obscesssed with me.

    Anyway, to address Carld's comments in particular, "in person" I am different, but it has nothing to do with "hiding behind the keyboard". In real life I am much more tolerant of gafts and stupidity, simply because I am guiltly of so many gafts myself. Real time conversation is a very different ballgame from posting on an internet forum. On a forum you have plenty of time to think and consider what you are about to post. And unlike "real life" you can even "do over" via editing. Thus in "real life" I am rarely critical of others, but in "forum life", I just see no excuse for much of the BS that gets posted, and will call someone on it.

    Also, to tryp.... you have hit the nail squarely on the head sir, thank you. So refreshing to see someone "gets it"...especially the part about folks that assume that because you ask a question about a subject, that you apparently know *nothing* about that subject and are therefore free to chatter on ad infinitum about every possible side issue connected with that subject. When the reality may be that you may be an expert on that subject and know pretty much everything there is to know on it, *except* the one thing you are asking the question on !

    And Renegade, I've been happily married to the same woman for 26 years...my first and only wife too.. how many here can say the same ?

    Anyhoo, I'm sure this won't quell the flames that will follow, mostly boiling down to "but why can't you be nicer ?" but that's my comments for the day...now time to go sailing.
    Right on que...LOL...bullies are so predictable.

    Thank you Donnie....can I have yet another dope slap?

    Please...pretty please....with sugar on it.

    So ...how's that cash flow problem of yours going?

    You reap what you sow Little Big Man.

    Laugh...laugh...laugh....


    TMT

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  • Forrest Addy
    replied
    Rantbot: Gleaning good info from messageboards requires the patience and persistance of a finch picking grain out of horse poo. I'm pretty active on a couple of boards and regard myself as moderately expert on a number of topics. Fully half my posts deal with squeching hazardous bad advise and wrongheaded concepts.

    A few years ago I tried to establish a trend where posts on electrical matters contained a brief statment of the electrical qualifications of the poster. (Know nothing about electricity but I helped my brother in law pulle wire one week end. EE speciaizing on high voltage switchgear. Licenced electrician. Etc.) Rod Peterson who is a true expert on electrical matters and whose advice can be trusted calls it "the Addy disclaimer." I think it helps the questioner to distinguish chalk from cheese especially when issues like electrical safety are part of the equasion.

    Many people need simple advice on pulley ratios, use of coolant in the home shop, RPC's, even painting of concrete floors but the noise level is so high and there is so much conflicting bad advice good advice is all but drowned out. It's the task of the public spirited few to persist... etc but personally I like to butt heads with the ignorant. So if you have something to offer in the line of expertise it will earn you points to use it to allay ignorance. If you can do it diplomatically, so much the better.
    Last edited by Forrest Addy; 06-03-2008, 12:33 PM.

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  • Michael Moore
    replied
    Welcome to the Internet. Unless a forum has moderators who are true experts in everything that might be talked about and they are going to be editing posts for accuracy it is up to the reader to try and pick out who seems to have a real clue.

    Funny, that seems to apply off the Internet too, as I've talked to 'experts' at brick and mortar businesses in real life who seemed to lack an understanding of their subject.

    I've learned lots of useful stuff at PM and met some very informed and helpful people who have given me some very appreciated help. That is true for many other fora too.

    But the responsibility for the final decision always rests with the person who has asked for the advice.

    cheers,
    Michael

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  • rantbot
    replied
    Originally posted by Lew Hartswick
    Yep! I have quit answering and usually even reading threads that involve the kind of electrical and electronic subjects that I worked on for 40 years because of all the "incorect to just plain bad" advice from others that havent a clue what they are talking about.
    Interesting; my experience was similar. When it was widely touted as the "go-to" place for advice about rotary converters, I took a look and was a bit nonplussed to find what bizarre rubbish passed there for good technical advice. I looked at something else, though I don't recall exactly what - I think maybe some confident hogwash about precision spindle bearings. Now of course that's just two for two, and doesn't really prove anything; but I never felt a motivation to look at anything else, and have just given it a pass ever since.

    Considering all the paeans of praise about what a "great resource" it is, I thought I was the only one who found it a general waste of time. But, maybe not.

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  • Deja Vu
    replied
    ....Very interesting thread!!!

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  • Lew Hartswick
    replied
    Originally posted by J Tiers
    I see his point. And I regularly see, here and elsewhere, the chiming in of folks who "almost sorta know about something a bit like that"............. to answer questions where "definite knowledge only" is requested.

    The "noise" is often deafening, and probably drives away the people who DO know.
    Yep! I have quit answering and usually even reading threads that
    involve the kind of electrical and electronic subjects that I worked on
    for 40 years because of all the "incorect to just plain bad" advice from
    others that havent a clue what they are talking about.
    I took up metal working just before I retired so am still in the
    "don't know it all but have learned a few good pointers" stage so
    try to keep up with those.
    ...lew...

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