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OT: Say good bye to sunspots and hello to global cooling?

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  • OT: Say good bye to sunspots and hello to global cooling?

    This story is going around Ham Radio circles. Hams depend a lot on sunspots to keep their RF flying far and wide This could be the real thing?

    http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceno...-sunspots.html

    from the artical:
    The phenomenon has happened before. Sunspots disappeared almost entirely between 1645 and 1715 during a period called the Maunder Minimum, which coincided with decades of lower-than-normal temperatures in Europe nicknamed the Little Ice Age. But Livingston cautions that the zero-sunspot prediction could be premature. "It may not happen," he says. "Only the passage of time will tell whether the solar cycle will pick up." Still, he adds, there's no doubt that sunspots "are not very healthy right now." Instead of the robust spots surrounded by halolike zones called penumbrae, as seen during the last solar maximum (photo), most of the current crop looks "rather peaked," with few or no penumbrae.

    Sounds to me like it's those freaking penumbrae again? The Little Ice Age?
    Last edited by Your Old Dog; 09-26-2010, 08:52 PM.
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    Thank you to our families of soldiers, many of whom have given so much more then the rest of us for the Freedom we enjoy.

    It is true, there is nothing free about freedom, don't be so quick to give it away.

  • #2
    Don't believe everything you read. This is today's SOHO image. Those are some pretty robust sunspots.

    Free software for calculating bolt circles and similar: Click Here

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    • #3
      Your one of those "Global warming"....uh...."Climate change"...uh,no...."weather disruption"..ya that's it "weather disruption" deniers...you sir are worse than Hitler

      I still say the real threat is a chunk of space rock.It's not a question of if,but rather when.
      I just need one more tool,just one!

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      • #4
        Under the "One data point is not a trend" column, here is the actual longer term data, and it is consistent with a Maunder Minimum pattern:

        http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

        Couple this with the current La Niٌa trend, there are some climatologist that are predicting a 30 year cooling period. There is another new change - the spot counters are counting spots now that would never have made the charts a few years ago. Why would they do that?

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        • #5
          Originally posted by wierdscience
          Your one of those "Global warming"....uh...."Climate change"...uh,no...."weather disruption"..ya that's it "weather disruption" deniers...you sir are worse than Hitler

          I still say the real threat is a chunk of space rock.It's not a question of if,but rather when.
          It happens more than we might know. http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/SSA/SEMAIUMO7EG_0.html

          This was an unknown until very recently.

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          • #6
            ... and I agree!

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            • #7
              I still say the real threat is a chunk of space rock.It's not a question of if,but rather when.
              Totally agree and so does the US government. The threat is very real and imminent. We have only discovered a small fraction of the Earth orbit crossing asteroids called the Apollos. In the map below they are marked in red. The yellow are ones that could easily have their orbits shifted by other planets to cross our orbit. The green are not likely to be a threat but under the right circumstances could also be sent our way. If it looks like a lot that isn't even close to what is out there. Based on the rate of discoveries and that the rate isn't tapering off the estimates are that there may be from 100,000 to 1,000,000 Earth crossing rocks big enough to pose a real threat. Threat means big enough to take out a city or more.

              Last edited by Evan; 09-26-2010, 09:44 PM.
              Free software for calculating bolt circles and similar: Click Here

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              • #8
                Originally posted by wierdscience
                I still say the real threat is a chunk of space rock.It's not a question of if,but rather when.
                You mean like one of these ...



                -SD:

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                • #9
                  Yep,an impact isn't the only threat either.

                  Ever think about the effects of a Tunguska type event happening on the Eastern Seaboard maybe over Manhattan or Boston?
                  I just need one more tool,just one!

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                  • #10
                    In 1972 we came close. This was estimated to be about 72 miles up and making at least mach 30 to 50. Best guess is that it was about the size of a large house and skipped back into space. While it looks like it is descending that is only because it is going over the horizon.



                    More recently another house sized object passed between the Earth and the Moon. The scary thing about that is we didn't discover it until it was on the way out instead of incoming. An object that size is a city buster.

                    I looked up some specs on it as object US19720810. It released around a kiloton of energy into the atmosphere while slowing from 15 to 14 kilometres per second. Weight as much as 1000 tonnes. Total energy release if impact happens around five to ten kilotons depending how fast it hit.
                    Last edited by Evan; 09-26-2010, 10:40 PM.
                    Free software for calculating bolt circles and similar: Click Here

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                    • #11
                      ... plus would could be invaded by aliens. Oh ... hum ... that's already happened. <smile>

                      -SD:

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Evan
                        In 1972 we came close. This was estimated to be about 72 miles up and making at least mach 30 to 50. Best guess is that it was about the size of a large house and skipped back into space. While it looks like it is descending that is only because it is going over the horizon.



                        More recently another house sized object passed between the Earth and the Moon. The scary thing about that is we didn't discover it until it was on the way out instead of incoming. An object that size is a city buster.
                        I saw that one in 1972. I was driving through Moscow, Idaho when it came over, moving roughly south-to-north. It was almost level in flight...my first thought was an airliner on fire. Good video, Evan.
                        Jim

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                        • #13
                          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u66aeLt6dOE
                          Andy

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Evan
                            In 1972 we came close. This was estimated to be about 72 miles up and making at least mach 30 to 50. Best guess is that it was about the size of a large house and skipped back into space. While it looks like it is descending that is only because it is going over the horizon.

                            More recently another house sized object passed between the Earth and the Moon. The scary thing about that is we didn't discover it until it was on the way out instead of incoming. An object that size is a city buster.

                            I looked up some specs on it as object US19720810. It released around a kiloton of energy into the atmosphere while slowing from 15 to 14 kilometres per second. Weight as much as 1000 tonnes. Total energy release if impact happens around five to ten kilotons depending how fast it hit.
                            We're getting better,just will we be good enough soon enough?I think we need to spend more time and money working on the problem of NEO's and less on Shrimp&Lobster AGW retreats for our politicians to jet off to.

                            http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/201...roid-detection
                            I just need one more tool,just one!

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Weirdscience
                              I still say the real threat is a chunk of space rock.It's not a question of if,but rather when.
                              You're more likely to die from Swine Flu

                              The last extinction level event was the asteroid or comet that hit the Chicxulub crater during the Cretaceous period, 65 million years ago. Humans have been on the Earth for 200,000 years.

                              The Tunguska meteroid is estimated to have been about 30 meters in diameter, and exploded with a force of around 5 megatons. The Chicxulub asteroid was around 10 kilometers diameter and hit with a force of 100 million megatons.

                              Extinction-level events have occurred periodically on Earth every 50 - 150 million years, so statistically it's far more likely that humans will be long extinct before the next event:



                              Another way of looking at it: if an asteroid 10 Kilometers in diameter is on a direct trajectory towards Earth, there's nothing we can do about it, short of sending Bruce Willis and Steve Buscemi. Heck, there's probably nothing we can do about it 1,000 years from now -- momentum is a bitch
                              Last edited by lazlo; 09-27-2010, 12:47 AM.
                              "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did."

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