Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

10,000 Year Clock

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #31
    Originally posted by Doc Nickel
    Almost everything we know today, and virtually every accomplishment, rests squarely on the shoulders of prior knowledge and accomplishment.
    Sure, I don't think many here would disagree with that. But I don't see how a bored billionaire building a giant pendulum clock in the desert is going to preserve any of that.

    If we had a mass extiction event from a nuclear war, swine flu , or a zombie uprising, don't you think our collective junk would last 10,000 years? Planes on tarmacs, nuke subs laying on the bottom of the ocean, computers below ground...

    By the way, they're using ceramic ball bearings for the escapement. The reason for the giant scale is to slow down the duty cycle of all the components, but I have my doubts that a ball bearing will last for 10,000 years.

    http://bcove.me/v5xtdo07
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did."

    Comment


    • #32
      but I have my doubts that a ball bearing will last for 10,000 years.
      Why not? How may rotations will it make? One per day perhaps? How many rotations does a bearing in a 3600 rpm motor make after a few years of running?

      They are using ceramic bearings because they need no lubrication to attract dirt and they won't cold weld under high pressure and virtually zero motion.

      Ten thousand years isn't a very long time if you are stainless steel in a dry desert cavern. Trees in the desert live 5000 years out in the open.

      It's a symbol for forward thinking. Perhaps the cavern will become a repository for long lived information storage, a time capsule of sorts. If I were to visit I would take something that would last and place it there for the future to contemplate.
      Free software for calculating bolt circles and similar: Click Here

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by lazlo
        Sure, I don't think many here would disagree with that. But I don't see how a bored billionaire building a giant pendulum clock in the desert is going to preserve any of that.
        -He's not. What he's doing is trying to make people think beyond tomorrow's meeting or next weekend or their next paycheck. We may think we're highly advanced, with our worldwide network of interconnected computers, and our personal cell phones and powerful computers the size of a pad of paper.

        But every generation has thought that. Seventy years ago, we thought we'd invented a weapon so horrific it would put an end to war. A hundred years ago we were laying telegraph cables across entire oceans, and marvelling at the sophistication of our communications networks. A hundred and fifty years ago, we'd criscrossed the continent with train tracks, making it possible to travel from coast to coast (well, almost) in less than a week.

        If we had a mass extinction event from a nuclear war, swine flu , or a zombie uprising, don't you think our collective junk would last 10,000 years? Planes on tarmacs, nuke subs laying on the bottom of the ocean, computers below ground...
        -The hardware, yes. But there's far more than just the parts themselves.

        Depending on how much information is lost, could we fly that plane? Even just restore it to flyable condition? In 200 years, after we've long since switched entirely to powering everything with miniaturized fusion reactors, will anyone remember how they used to burn flammable liquids to perform work?

        That computer- we've already very nearly lost the ability to read most of the data we gathered over the Apollo missions. Part of it was degradation of the recording medium, part of it was the fact a lot of the tapes were simply lost or recorded over, and part of it was the fact the obsolete computers, along with the software they ran on, were replaced and scrapped.

        Look at all the obsolete computers we've had in just the last 20 years. Say your great uncle saved his Last Will & Testament to a 5-1/2" floppy disc using an Osborne 'suitcase' computer. It's still- barely- possible we can read and recover that data, but in another 20 years?

        I have a 90 year old photo of a great-grandfather. (No one in the family even knows what his first name is.) Unless I actively update my digital files every three to five years- basically in perpetuity- where will my thousands of digital photos be in 90 years? Lost? Even if I burned them to an archival-quality gold-layered DVD, will anyone still own a functional DVD player, a computer to run it, or software that can read it?

        We've already lost some of the technology that got us to the Moon in the first place. Those people have retired or passed away, and many of the plans have been destroyed. An article in Popular Science a while back mentioned we can no longer maintain or update some of our nuclear weapons, because we've lost the knowledge to produce some sort of foam cushion or spacer material used in their construction. Apparently nobody even knows what it was made of anymore.

        Some of the lost knowledge is irrelevant. Nobody cares, for example, if no one knows how to program an Altair II anymore. But in 20 years, will hotrodders still be able to keep cars on the road after the ABS or engine-management computers fail?

        By the way, they're using ceramic ball bearings for the escapement. The reason for the giant scale is to slow down the duty cycle of all the components, but I have my doubts that a ball bearing will last for 10,000 years.
        -Why not? If it only makes, let's say, 50,000 revolutions in that time, at a rate of one revolution every three months, and it's reasonably well protected from dust, why would it fail?

        Nothing on the clock will be moving very fast. It sounds like the part that will get the most wear will be the pendulum pivot, and even that will be moving relatively slowly. (Apparently a 10-second period.) Give it a big, oversized bearing, keep it clean (I think they said it'll be inside a quartz box) and why shouldn't it last for centuries?

        Besides which, it sounds like it's not intended for the clock to run entirely unaided for the next ten millennia. They're leaving room(s) for "anniversary" displays, and there's to be arrangements for people to wind it, and to "set" it- the clock will apparently not display the current time, but rather the time since the last "setting", IE, the last time someone visited it.

        In other words, it's not so much "this clock will run totally unaided for 10,000 years" (though they're trying to build it so it might be able to, if necessary) but rather "this clock will still be here in 10,000 years."

        Doc.
        Doc's Machine. (Probably not what you expect.)

        Comment


        • #34
          Actually, it doesn't need to be set. When you want to know the time from it you turn a crank that turns the dials until it goes "BING". That means the dials are at the right place to show the present time. It's done that way to save energy and to lessen wear on the display mechanism. The display only needs to move when the time is requested.

          A side benefit is that it automatically tells you the last time it was visited.
          Last edited by Evan; 06-29-2011, 08:46 AM.
          Free software for calculating bolt circles and similar: Click Here

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by Doc Nickel
            Depending on how much information is lost, could we fly that plane?
            Would anyone in 10,000 years even know that it is supposed to fly or care if they did know? At the current rate of genetic regression (smart people are being outproduced by not so smart people by a wide margin) I don't imagine the world will be populated by anything but hunter/gatherers in a very short time (geologically speaking). As a species, we have the equivalent of Alzheimer's disease.

            The current interglacial period is going to end (happens like clockwork, pardon the pun), and when it does there will be a big overturning of the population by migrations, loss of educational opportunity, over-crowding, and protein depletion. There may be a 1000' of glacial ice where that mountain is. Or the mountain itself may be weathered and scoured to the point of exposing the cavern that holds the broken parts of the clock.

            Looking at the imagery, that is obvious it is a very weathered location.
            http://longnow.org/clock/

            This, I think, is not a very important event in the big picture. Jeff Bezos will be no more linked to this thing than Daniel Barringer is to the meteor crater in Arizona. Years from now somebody will buy the site and put in a gift shop and sell little bronzed plastic similes of the clock to contemporary tourons.

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by Doc Nickel
              -He's not. What he's doing is trying to make people think beyond tomorrow's meeting or next weekend or their next paycheck.
              Oh come on, that's bullsh!t. Jeff Bezos (CEO of Amazon) has as much interest in making people think about tomorrow as Larry Ellison had in racing his billet aluminum Cobra, or Bill Gates does in curing malaria.

              Khufu didn't build the Great Pyramid of Egypt to promote forward thinking, he built it as a personal legacy. Exact same reason Jeff Bezos is funding Danny Hillis' clock.
              "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did."

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by Doc Nickel
                -Why not? If it only makes, let's say, 50,000 revolutions in that time, at a rate of one revolution every three months, and it's reasonably well protected from dust, why would it fail?
                Think of the scope they're talking about. According to Intelligent Design, the world is only 6,000 years old. 10,000 years ago was the end of the Pleistocene ice age -- you know, hunter/gatherer's running around in bear skins and throwing stone spears. The beginning of human civilization.

                I don't think humans can make *any* moving element that will last for 10,000 years.

                The 8' tall prototype that's in the London Science Museum has wound down several times since it was completed in 2000, according to the LongNow site. Hope they get that figured out before the designers die

                Nothing on the clock will be moving very fast. It sounds like the part that will get the most wear will be the pendulum pivot, and even that will be moving relatively slowly. (Apparently a 10-second period.) Give it a big, oversized bearing, keep it clean (I think they said it'll be inside a quartz box) and why shouldn't it last for centuries?
                Centuries, I can believe. 100 centuries? Highly unlikely.

                Besides which, it sounds like it's not intended for the clock to run entirely unaided for the next ten millennia.

                In other words, it's not so much "this clock will run totally unaided for 10,000 years" (though they're trying to build it so it might be able to, if necessary) but rather "this clock will still be here in 10,000 years."
                Plus, I notice they're franchising it out They're going to build a second clock in Arizona, and they're in negotiation for other sites. I think Dennis' vision of Gift Shops at each clock is inevitable.
                "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did."

                Comment


                • #38
                  Still its a cool project. I hope to visit it if they get it running before I die.
                  James Kilroy

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    I have a mantle clock that was made by my great great grandfather in 1845 or so. It runs very well still for about 2 weeks on a single winding and keeps time within about 30 seconds over that period. It's over a century and half old and should last at least a few more centuries. It wasn't designed with that in mind, it was his Masterpiece work. Incidentally, a Masterpiece is the final test for an apprentice to pass to become a master of a trade, in this case a clockmaker.

                    I have no doubt that a well designed mechanism can last that long if the environment remains stable. It isn't a very long time. The key is to make sure that nothing rubs against anything else. Rolling contact only.
                    Free software for calculating bolt circles and similar: Click Here

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Evan
                      I have no doubt that a well designed mechanism can last that long if the environment remains stable. It isn't a very long time. The key is to make sure that nothing rubs against anything else. Rolling contact only.
                      And keep bat guano out of it.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by jkilroy
                        Still its a cool project. I hope to visit it if they get it running before I die.
                        Likewise -- very cool project. I love seeing the giant gears and the Geneva mechanism they're CNC machining out of 316 stainless.

                        I just think they're being overly ambitious with the project goals, but that's what startup entrepreneurs do
                        "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did."

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          My question is why? In 10,000 years will any person or animal on the planet earth care what time it is. Will knowing it is 120220 matter, no it will not. The sun will still be high in the sky and it will be hot if it is summer or cold if it is winter.
                          Those same people will only care where their next meal is going to come from and that they can stay warm and dry during the night so they can make it to the next day.

                          They will not care what time it is and knowing the time will have no effect on their lives.

                          Dave

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            10,000 year clock?

                            Oh, the humanity!
                            Oh, the hubris.
                            Harrumph!
                            Weston Bye - Author, The Mechatronist column, Digital Machinist magazine
                            ~Practitioner of the Electromechanical Arts~

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              10.000 years yes but does it come with a guarantee Alistair
                              Please excuse my typing as I have a form of parkinsons disease

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by lazlo
                                If we had a mass extinction event from a nuclear war, swine flu , or a zombie uprising, don't you think our collective junk would last 10,000 years? Planes on tarmacs, nuke subs laying on the bottom of the ocean, computers below ground...
                                It's not that the physical crap wouldn't last, but that the knowledge and ability to create, even copies, of that self-same junk, that ultimately would be lost.

                                Look around at the declining educational standards in North America. The general population is becoming less intelligent. There is a higher probability that the survivors of any global extinction will not be the educated technocrats that advance the modern technological society, but rather the mass consumers of technology, who haven't an eff'n clue as to how things work, much less of how to actually build anything.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X