My nephew asked me an interesting probability question yesterday. It reminded me of this thread:

http://bbs.homeshopmachinist.net/sho...ighlight=queen

.. so I thought some of might find it interesting.

Suppose that in a given month there is an equal likelyhood of a lightning strike on any given day. In other words if the probability of a strike on the first day is p then the probability of a strike on the Nth day is also p.

Now suppose that lightning DID strike on the first day of the month.

The question:

Which of the remaining days of the month has the greatest probability of being the next day that lightning strikes?

http://bbs.homeshopmachinist.net/sho...ighlight=queen

.. so I thought some of might find it interesting.

Suppose that in a given month there is an equal likelyhood of a lightning strike on any given day. In other words if the probability of a strike on the first day is p then the probability of a strike on the Nth day is also p.

Now suppose that lightning DID strike on the first day of the month.

The question:

Which of the remaining days of the month has the greatest probability of being the next day that lightning strikes?

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