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  • #16
    Originally posted by J Tiers View Post
    They are not subject to the speculative rocketing up in value that bitcoin has seen..."
    I didn't say they did. Merely responding to your claim that "It [bitcoin] failed as a medium of exchange the moment it became a speculative investment." as if by definition a speculated currency cannot possibly be used as a medium of exchange, which is obviously false. Bitcoin is used as a monetary instrument right now and it is also a speculative asset. Period.


    "...Currencies do not change value like bitcoin because their value in goods has been firmly established. So that argument is dead on arrival."


    Sorry, but you're wrong and that "argument" is not an argument at all. Just a simple statement of facts. The history of US money alone is rife with many outright failed, severely debased and inflated currencies throughout our 240+ year history. You do know the Federal Reserve notes we use today are not the same scrip we used during the Revolutionary war? You do know it's not the same as the greenbacks and confederate dollars we used during the civil war? You do know our current money is simply the latest iteration after many many failures, crashes and reissues? And it continues to be debased right now. That's why we have over 20 trillion in debt, which at some point in time in the not so distant future there will be a day of reckoning on.

    And the same can be said for many developed nations, including Germany in the 20th century. Not to mention numerous lesser nations like Zimbabwe, where their trillion dollar note is worth 40 US cents.


    "...mostly because there is a huge economy that has priced things in national currency. That cannot be bucked, you get laughed out of the place if you try anything....."


    Really? You might want to tell George Soros that. He powerfully manipulated the English Pound Sterling back in 1992. And remember, the pound sterling was the world's reserve currency prior to the Bretton Woods agreement in 1945. Not a national currency to take lightly.




    "...just go and try to pass a dollar as if it were really 3 bucks."


    I can rather easily take 4 silver quarters and pass them off for about $12.


    "Of course if you treat a buck as if it were worth only a quarter, you will get lots of takers."


    You won't get any takers knowingly offering silver quarters. Not by a long shot.


    "Currencies do not change value like bitcoin because their value in goods has been firmly established."


    Modern currencies of advanced nations generally don't change a lot during normal/non-eventful times. But historically, over the long run, they too can and do have radically shifting values. Bitcoin is extremely volatile and probably will eventually go to zero. But the same can be said about many US currencies in the past. The same can also be historically said about almost all developed nations, as well. It's just a matter of timing.


    So that argument is dead on arrival.


    What "argument" are you referring to? The straw man you've created and are now disagreeing with? I'm presenting facts, not arguments.


    "Measure the value against things that HAVE VALUE, not against gold."


    I did measure the value of a silver quarter against a gallon of gasoline. Do you agree a gallon of gasoline has value? I suggest you re-read what I said previously. And again, what I said was fact based. Not opinion or argument.



    "IF the price of a bushel of wheat, or other essential food commodity ALSO went up at the same rate as gold, THEN, AND ONLY THEN, your specious argument would have validity."


    You're wrong. Essential food stuffs are not the ONLY commodity that can be used as a measure for the value of gold (which itself is a commodity). You're welcome to your own opinions, but you can't make up your own facts and simply declare them true. Oh and by the way, everything from soybeans to pork bellies have been and are subjected to speculation and manipulation too.



    "But, in fact, the vast majority of commodities stay at the same general price, while gold, or bitcoin, etc, rockets up in price."


    The vast majority of commodities do not stay at the same general price over time. Copper is a commodity and it was about 30 cents/lb back in 1960. Today it's trading at over ten times that value.


    "THAT IS YOUR CLUE that the price increase is purely a matter of speculators and the tinfoil hat crowd bidding it up. There is thus evidence that the price increase of gold, for instance, is driven by speculation, and NOT by devaluation of what you folks call "fiat currency"."


    There is no doubt that bitcoin is now wildly speculative and will in all likelihood in my - and Warren Buffett's - opinion crash and burn to zero (or close to it). And the price of gold is manipulated, of course. But so is the US dollar and just about any modern currency. Maybe not as much as Gold or bitcoin, but it is manipulated and powerfully so over long spans of time.


    "There is a total disconnect between the bid-up price of gold or bitcoin, and the value of essential commodities, food, clothing, and shelter. Therefore it is NOT as you suggest, despite what you may believe, or want to believe. Take off the tinfoil hat and think about it for a while. "


    I agree there is a total disconnect about the bid price of bitcoin. But there is not a TOTAL disconnect between the bid price of gold and the US dollar. There can and are frequently short term disconnects due to speculation and manipulation for gold, but over the long run (spanning decades and centuries), gold actually is a good reflector of the debasement of modern fiat currencies.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Machine View Post
      I didn't say they did. Merely responding to your claim that "It [bitcoin] failed as a medium of exchange the moment it became a speculative investment." as if by definition a speculated currency cannot possibly be used as a medium of exchange, which is obviously false. Bitcoin is used as a monetary instrument right now and it is also a speculative asset. Period.


      "...Currencies do not change value like bitcoin because their value in goods has been firmly established. So that argument is dead on arrival."


      Sorry, but you're wrong and that "argument" is not an argument at all. Just a simple statement of facts. The history of US money alone is rife with many outright failed, severely debased and inflated currencies throughout our 240+ year history. You do know the Federal Reserve notes we use today are not the same scrip we used during the Revolutionary war? You do know it's not the same as the greenbacks and confederate dollars we used during the civil war? You do know our current money is simply the latest iteration after many many failures, crashes and reissues? And it continues to be debased right now. That's why we have over 20 trillion in debt, which at some point in time in the not so distant future there will be a day of reckoning on.

      And the same can be said for many developed nations, including Germany in the 20th century. Not to mention numerous lesser nations like Zimbabwe, where their trillion dollar note is worth 40 US cents.


      .....

      I agree there is a total disconnect about the bid price of bitcoin. But there is not a TOTAL disconnect between the bid price of gold and the US dollar. There can and are frequently short term disconnects due to speculation and manipulation for gold, but over the long run (spanning decades and centuries), gold actually is a good reflector of the debasement of modern fiat currencies.
      Nonsense... your koolaid was mixed up by someone else.

      Dollars do not vary wildly in price vs actual goods, they vary wildly in price against GOLD. Cement that difference in your head... (I know this is not gonna work, but I will try this one more time.)

      The price of dollars in GOODS does not vary the way the price in dollars for GOLD does. So the inflation against GOLD is not relevant to actual buying power, it is relevant to the speculative bid-up of GOLD only.

      You are essentially saying that the price of goods in dollars in not important, and using the ONE item, gold, as your yardstick. But that is faulty simply because gold varies against ALL currencies, and even against silver, for instance.

      EVEN FOR YOU, that should clearly indicate that the price of gold is not a direct measure of decreasing value of a dollar. Value of currency at base is the value against essentials: food , clothing and shelter. PERIOD. There is NO other absolute standard unless you can eat, wear, and shelter under gold...or silver....

      You call that a straw man argument... because it does not suit the conspiracy theory. OK, think as you like, it does not bother me, except that folks like you are profoundly de-stabilizing, and are rushing headlong toward a dictatorship. I hope you like it when you get it.

      Your last bit is irrelevant... as well as wrong... apparently you do not accept that food, clothing and shelter are essentials, and form the basis of "value" in a currency. YOU only accept gold, and ignore the other items. Your privilege, but it gives you a distorted view of reality, as well as making your argument somewhat "circular".

      OK, I tried... it will not change the opinion that has been put in your head...
      CNC machines only go through the motions.

      Ideas expressed may be mine, or from anyone else in the universe.
      Not responsible for clerical errors. Or those made by lay people either.
      Number formats and units may be chosen at random depending on what day it is.
      I reserve the right to use a number system with any integer base without prior notice.
      Generalizations are understood to be "often" true, but not true in every case.

      Comment


      • #18
        Hmmm. How can you have inflation without the price of goods changing?

        I live in a $1,000,000 house that was $129K when we bought it. Gold was about $200 an ounce then. Now what is gold worth? 1300? It seems that real goods do fluctuate and in some cases as much or more than gold. That tends to support Machine's position.

        Of course, way to make Jerry's argument true is to do what the feds started doing a few decades back. Just disregard anything that does tend to inflate. Cars, gas, food, housing, etc. That keeps inflation down.


        Dan
        At the end of the project, there is a profound difference between spare parts and left over parts.

        Location: SF East Bay.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by danlb View Post
          Hmmm. How can you have inflation without the price of goods changing?
          Dan
          There you have it.... Bread should be about $12 per loaf if it inflated the way gold has.

          Don;t mention houses..... I guess you forgot about 2008, and the quick run-up of supposed house value..... that collapsed right after. I notice bread did not change much then either.

          Bread is really a good inflation indicator. Gold is not. Bitcoin is not.

          Real estate is not, since that depends strongly on location.... your million dollar home would cost a lot less than that here. Move my place to LA, and it would be over a million most likely.
          CNC machines only go through the motions.

          Ideas expressed may be mine, or from anyone else in the universe.
          Not responsible for clerical errors. Or those made by lay people either.
          Number formats and units may be chosen at random depending on what day it is.
          I reserve the right to use a number system with any integer base without prior notice.
          Generalizations are understood to be "often" true, but not true in every case.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Norman Bain View Post
            The mechanism (the underlying algorithms and platform generally) fails any reasonable test of scalability. Cost (the fees) for transfers are out of control.
            Bank of America wants to charge me $8 to cash a $12 check drawn at their bank.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by J Tiers View Post
              There you have it.... Bread should be about $12 per loaf if it inflated the way gold has.

              Don;t mention houses..... I guess you forgot about 2008, and the quick run-up of supposed house value..... that collapsed right after. I notice bread did not change much then either.

              Bread is really a good inflation indicator. Gold is not. Bitcoin is not.

              Real estate is not, since that depends strongly on location.... your million dollar home would cost a lot less than that here. Move my place to LA, and it would be over a million most likely.
              See? Just throw out the biggest expenses in most budgets (housing, food and medical care) and you greatly limit inflation. That makes it much easier to make any claim you want about gold being manipulated.


              Bread is not a good indicator. Wheat is strongly subsidized. Even so, it runs from $2.99 to $5.95 at our local store. That's a big gap. But here's a neat chart for you Jerry. Using 2000 as the basis, it shows that bread has gone up as much as 14.6% in one year. Hmm. That was 2008. How about that? http://www.in2013dollars.com/Bread/price-inflation. It's hard to find anything that does not fluctuate even when the economy is supposed to be stable.

              In short, currencies have always been manipulated and have always been subject to speculation and arbitrage. Bitcoin is not unique in that area.

              I still won't accept it for payment of dept, but that is a different issue.
              At the end of the project, there is a profound difference between spare parts and left over parts.

              Location: SF East Bay.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Glug View Post
                Bank of America wants to charge me $8 to cash a $12 check drawn at their bank.
                How much do they charge to cash a $7 check?

                Comment


                • #23
                  Squabble all you want, Bitcoin has made a lot of people a lot of money

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    It might be oat bread, or potato bread, you know.... they are all around the same price.

                    Yes, bitcoin has mad a lot of money, just as speculating in any similar market can. Especially if you got out when it was up at over $15,000, and bought back when it was a buck or two.

                    But that just proves the total insane instability of bitcoin as a currency at the moment. That kind of movement makes it worthless as a currency, or as an inflation measuring tool. There is no way to set a price in bitcoin when it literally changes by 10,000 percent in a year or so.
                    Last edited by J Tiers; 04-09-2018, 06:36 PM.
                    CNC machines only go through the motions.

                    Ideas expressed may be mine, or from anyone else in the universe.
                    Not responsible for clerical errors. Or those made by lay people either.
                    Number formats and units may be chosen at random depending on what day it is.
                    I reserve the right to use a number system with any integer base without prior notice.
                    Generalizations are understood to be "often" true, but not true in every case.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by J Tiers View Post
                      Nonsense... your koolaid was mixed up by someone else. Dollars do not vary wildly in price vs actual goods, they vary wildly in price against GOLD. The price of dollars in GOODS does not vary the way the price in dollars for GOLD does.

                      You’re wrong. Over the long run, despite gold and silver’s manipulated/speculated and often volatile market, they tend to be a much more stable reflection of the value of goods when compared to the US dollar (which is inflationary, by design). Especially when viewed over the course of a century or more. The value of gold and silver roughly tracks monetary inflation over time. And I already provided an example, which you ignored and repeated a straw man laden ad hom diatribe. How else do you explain that gasoline was 25 cents (in US currency) a gallon in 1960, but now is about 10 times that price in US currency? Yet is essentially the same price - 58 years later - when priced in silver? There are many more examples.

                      Everyone knows that prices go up over the long run. The dollar is absolutely not stable over time. It decays with inflation, and at times, rapidly loses value, as anyone who lived through the late 70’s can attest. Did you live through the late 1970's?


                      “So the inflation against GOLD is not relevant to actual buying power, it is relevant to the speculative bid-up of GOLD only.”


                      You’re wrong. I almost wonder if you’re being deliberately obtuse here?


                      “You are essentially saying that the price of goods in dollars in not important, and using the ONE item, gold, as your yardstick.”



                      No, absolutely not. I’m not “essentially” saying any such thing. And I’m not just talking about gold. I used a silver quarter as an example with gasoline earlier. Remember? lol


                      “But that is faulty simply because gold varies against ALL currencies, and even against silver, for instance.”



                      Of course it does. No one said it didn’t. No one said there is some magical 1:1 link that firmly locks the price of anything to anything. They all float against one another in a free/manipulated market. And that applies to both precious metals, commodities and all currencies. But over long periods of time, the trend lines of gold/silver vs fiat currencies are there for anyone to see. Except for you I guess!


                      “EVEN FOR YOU, that should clearly indicate that the price of gold is not a direct measure of decreasing value of a dollar.”



                      I never said it was a perfectly, rigidly 100% correlative measure of dollar inflation. How many straw man arguments are we up to now? Do you even know what a straw man argument is?


                      “Value of currency at base is the value against essentials: food , clothing and shelter. PERIOD. There is NO other absolute standard unless you can eat, wear, and shelter under gold...or silver....”



                      Who says? Do you have a reputable economic source that can back that PERIOD claim up? As in the one and only method?? I know you don’t.
                      Inflation can and is measured in many different ways, not just the way you personally declare it to be measured. The CPI is one commonly accepted measure by the US govt. It doesn’t measure inflation just the way you state. Besides, Gold and silver are much more stable in price over time when compared to US dollar in food, clothing and shelter anyway. Here’s just a few examples:

                      A loaf of bread in 1960: 22 cents. In 2013: $1.98. That’s an increase of 10X in US dollars! In contrast, twenty-two cents is about two 1960 silver dimes, which today are worth about $2.40. Very close to what it was back in 1960 and FAR more stable in price than the USD.

                      Average house price in 1960: $12,700. Back in 1960 gold was ~$36.50 oz. So the average price of a home priced in gold was about 348 ounces of gold.

                      Average price of a home in 2013: $289,500 or a whopping 23X more in US dollars! In 2013 gold was ~$1200/oz. So the average price of a home priced in gold was about 241 ounces of gold. That means an average home today is only 1.4X more priced in gold compared to 1960. Which one is more stable here???

                      I could go on and on. Anyone could. Everyone that’s been around a few decades knows that all of this is patently obvious. Why don’t you?


                      “You call that a straw man argument... because it does not suit the conspiracy theory. “


                      Oh really? And what conspiracy theory is that? Go ahead, build your best straw man. But you should probably know that I do not own a single – as in NOT ONE – gold or silver coin.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by RB211 View Post
                        Squabble all you want, Bitcoin has made a lot of people a lot of money
                        So has heroin.
                        Peter - novice home machinist, modern motorcycle enthusiast.

                        Denford Viceroy 280 Synchro (11 x 24)
                        Herbert 0V adapted to R8 by 'Sir John'.
                        Monarch 10EE 1942

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Peter. View Post
                          So has heroin.
                          I gather that's only if your selling and not using it

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by RB211 View Post
                            Squabble all you want, Bitcoin has made a lot of people a lot of money
                            It stands to reason it's also lost a lot of people a lot of money, no? The money they made came from somewhere. Not meant as an attack, really is a question.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Gamers lost a lot of money when the prices of GPU’s skyrocketed


                              Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Machine View Post

                                Everyone knows that prices go up over the long run. The dollar is absolutely not stable over time. It decays with inflation, and at times, rapidly loses value, as anyone who lived through the late 70’s can attest. Did you live through the late 1970's?

                                ?
                                Of course.... I may be older than you.

                                Point here is NOT TO discuss long term inflation.... You are dragging it off the point.

                                The real point here is that any thing that is useful as a "currency" has to have short and middle term stability IN GENERAL. You are ignoring that point.

                                Looking at bitcoin, which has jumped many thousand percent over a short time... HOW would you manage to price any piece of goods when the theoretical buying power of the currency can vary 2 to 1 overnight?

                                Correct, there is NO WAY to operate a business that way. You cannot set a salary, you cannot write a contract with a price in it. It is totally unworkable.

                                BOTH gold and bitcoin have failed that test.

                                You complain that currency is "managed", you would say "manipulated", to make that happen. I ask you this.... Would you rather it was mot? Would you rather set a price for your house, or for something on craig's list, only to find out that you were either getting 20 cents on the dollar, or were 5x overpriced?

                                It can be NECESSARY to do what you call "manipulation" to avoid total economic chaos. The Federal Reserve obviously does that, insofar as they can. NOT doing it is far worse.

                                In any case, a "Currency" HAS TO BE stable enough that prices can be set, and remain valid for at least a reasonable time. If not, you have Germany in the 20's. or Venezuela more recently. And yet you think that is bad. Well, I hope you like it if you get it.

                                Speculative investment vehicles, like gold, cannot be relied on for the reason that they vary wildly in price, going up and down in a manner that is in fact PROVEN to be unrelated to the prices for other things, even other speculative investment vehicles, pork bellies, etc.

                                Gold goes up X amount in a week.... the others did not, even though BOTH are priced in dollars. You CANNOT escape that fact. You keep talking long term, but long term is not the point.

                                You want citations of some respected source for saying food, clothing and shelter are the best measure.... Phooey..... I am pretty sure there are references, but IT DOES NOT MATTER. You have to look at the price of essentials, not extras.

                                Hardly anyone NEEDS gold. Obviously you do not, and I certainly do not NEED it. Therefore most folks buying are "speculating" that if they buy now, the price will go up and then they can sell later AT A PROFIT. Same with bitcoin... everyone is talking about holding to MAKE A PROFIT.

                                Notice that... when they sell, they necessarily will exchange the gold for another medium of exchange, expecting to get more of that medium than they spent to acquire the bitcoin or gold. Where is their "profit" if they only keep pace with inflation, as apparently you claim? At best, if every move of the price of gold is a direct reflection of dollar inflation, the speculator can only hope to keep barely up with inflation, less costs of transactions. There is no profit in that.

                                So, OBVIOUSLY, in the scenarios we have seen happen, the dollars maintained relatively the same in buying power, while the gold bought more dollars today than it would have yesterday.... it's buying power increased.

                                That does not reflect inflation, it reflects a market pricing of gold, and gold alone (or bitcoin, etc alone). And a pricing that is often based on a frenzy, a speculative expectation, but NOT on a real change in the value of gold overnight.

                                The next day, the price may fall abruptly.

                                And what drives these prices for speculative investment vehicles? Herd frenzy, expectations, seeing others make a profit (that word again). It is basically a Ponzi scheme. People feel they "have to get in on this", so they go and buy at the asking price, expecting to sell even higher (in constant value dollars, by the way).

                                Their act of buying confirms the price they paid. But when the last herd member buys, then there is nobody left to buy at the new and even higher price. The price goes down.

                                These things do not follow facts, they follow expectations and greed. You cannot easily build an economy when the price of everything is reset daily by the latest herd effects of expectation and greed. It. Just. Does. Not. Work.

                                That is one main reason why gold has failed as a currency once the value of it was no longer controlled. And there is your basic error.
                                Last edited by J Tiers; 04-09-2018, 11:55 PM.
                                CNC machines only go through the motions.

                                Ideas expressed may be mine, or from anyone else in the universe.
                                Not responsible for clerical errors. Or those made by lay people either.
                                Number formats and units may be chosen at random depending on what day it is.
                                I reserve the right to use a number system with any integer base without prior notice.
                                Generalizations are understood to be "often" true, but not true in every case.

                                Comment

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